2025 will be the year of winners and losers in performance marketing.
Here’s what I predict:
1. Full-funnel wins. Brands will be running a full-funnel approach backed by high volumes of rigorously tested creative being pumped in and experimented on at each funnel layer.
2. "All in on ASC" is done. RIP. Brands learned in 2024 it’s a cesspit for incrementality. Winners use it sparingly—bottom funnel only.
3. Go global or get stuck. Scaling internationally becomes a necessity to derisk single markets and unlock growth.
4. Tech + AI = winners. Smarter brands leverage AI & Automation to squeeze more from creative and performance.
5. Incrementality rules. The buzzword of 2025. Meta’s Data-Driven Attribution will close the loop between measurement and optimisation. Businesses like Haus , Measured, and Fospha? Massive growth.
6. Meta > Google. Meta will grab more market share in ecommerce, short-form video, and AI—cementing its role in the full-funnel shift.
7. YouTube + Demand Gen scale. Google improves mid/upper funnel measurement and efficacy. Smart brands double down.
8. Pinterest levels up. Performance and audience growth put Pinterest head-to-head with TikTok as “The Third Channel��—especially in fashion.
9. UGC for luxury? Finally. Winning brands crack the code on creator content, scaling it across premium and luxury categories.
10 Beyond search and social. Brands shift budgets into retail media and in-app ads (AppLovin) to chase incrementality and efficiency.
What else do you see coming?
#winners
Meta is getting hot again after a slow summer.
Make no mistake: this has been a tough period for UK retail.
IMRG data shows that ecom revenue growth has been negative for most of the summer, only picking up in early September.
According to Nest data, both competition and demand fell during the summer, but since September, both CPM and CVR are on the rise.
We are optimistic about this Q4 after strong performance in September and early October.
Now is your last chance to invest in brand building before CPMs start to soar.
#ecommerce #marketingdigital #meta
In performance marketing, separating creative and media functions is like trying to drive a car with one person holding the wheel and another with their feet on the pedals.
A recipe for a car crash...
#ecommerce#marketing
Last year, our UK store grew 100+% YOY
This year, growth has been HARD.
Macro issues? Us problem?
We talked to 10+ local ad agencies and they all said...
"This is the most american feeling brand we have ever seen"
We ended up hiring NEST, a local agency to make some more UK ads.
Thoughts?
If you are a US brand looking to enter or expand in Europe let’s chat.
I will be at #shoptalk Chicago next week.
Our US to Europe clients include Hims, Ridge and AG1
We’re expanding into the US, so you can scale up in Europe.
Europe is one of the largest consumer markets in the world. With more than 326M affluent ecommerce customers, the continent’s online retail revenue is set to reach $633B in 2024.
However, many American businesses are yet to recognize the continent’s opportunities. Until two years ago, Nest’s client portfolio largely consisted of UK or European brands. Their primary objective? Scale up in the UK, EU and, increasingly, the US.
Then, in 2022, US men’s health brand Hims asked us to run its European performance marketing campaigns. The project has been a runaway success. Now, more US brands are approaching Nest to propel their international expansions. We’ve recently secured two exciting new client wins, including Ridge, with a focus on scaling from the US to Europe.
This renewed drive for internationalization should come as no surprise. If your brand can get itself in front of the right customers, in the right way, Europe is a highly lucrative market.
Europe’s lower ad costs are particularly attractive for helping US brands to grow. Nest data shows that in 2024, US Meta CPM was 165% higher than Europe, while Google CPC was 36% higher.
Essentially, Europe’s ad landscape is both less saturated and less advanced than the competitive US market. This means that there’s a huge opportunity for dynamic brands like yours to stand out.
However, success on the continent will depend on far more than just replicating what works in the US. Europe is a highly fragmented space, with 24 official languages and nuanced cultural differences unique to each market. You will need local know-how, tailored strategies, and region-specific creative to resonate with European audiences.
As a trusted UK-based marketing partner, we can offer the localized expertise and resources to help US brands navigate these nuances and scale on the continent. Our team in London, along with a broader European network, will develop a market entry strategy for each country, and work to iterate your messaging and creative to ensure it resonates with local audiences.
As more US brands recognize the opportunities in Europe, Nest is evolving and expanding to meet their needs. From October, I will dedicate a significant portion of my time toward visiting the US, personally speaking to US brands, and mapping out how Nest can support their European expansions. I'm going to publish each step of this business adventure online, building up our US business in public.
We are launching a playbook on Europe scaling strategies next week - DM me if you would like to receive a copy.
Also, on Oct 17 I will be running an exclusive event at Meta’s offices during #Shoptalk Chicago, exploring these growth opportunities for US brands in Europe.
So, whether I meet you personally in the US or you follow our journey from afar, I look forward to connecting with you - and supporting your expansion into Europe, too.
We’re bringing these insights to #Shoptalk in Chicago this October, where we’ll be running an event on cracking the European market. DM me if you would like to join us.
Because Europe’s diversity demands more than just a copy-paste of your US strategy. If you’re serious about growth, it's time to get serious about localizing your operations.
What's the hottest channel in marketing right now?
(A question I was asked by a potential new customer yesterday which I loved - they went on to qualify - aside from Meta and Google)
My response: "Upper funnel Meta"
Looks like the PM's wife has a ME+EM habit 👀
Exciting to see a top Nest client shining on the world stage.
We scaled them all the way to Number 10👗🇬🇧
#ecommerce#fashion#allchange