LEJ Capital

Buyside TMT Investor. Tweets not investment advice.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@WarrenPies Is “it’s not as extreme as 2000 yet” a good bull base?

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@JaredSleeper You had 35-40% IRRs, now 20-25% IRRs again. For the “well liked” and expensive software names, I agree.

Lot of other assets where people have been debating whether terminal value is 0, with no real deterioration in fundamentals, to bid names with more temporal EPS revisions

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

Following off-cycle earnings when Rocha is out is similar to investing in software when the biggest capex buildout of all time is going on and you’re predominantly a software investor…

Oh wait

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@HighyieldHarry Recognizing that multiples are 50-75% lower than the entry price (at a minimum) here also needs to be said for people posting this as a way to justify software short positions and/or having no price to buy it in the public markets.

Very silly

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@rdd147 Your post contains 0% facts… why tweet about it if you’re not “anti-SaaS” or it’s an issue for you?

$NOW is growing ~100% faster organically than $CRM with a ~50% higher multiple. What premium do you think it should trade at?

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

Is this the start of the Semipocalypse?

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@MRatable I really disagree with this.

I don’t think it’s the “best way” to fade the AI hype, but will be a lot more insulated than a lot of other names. META down on increased capex. META down more if cut capex? Don’t think so.

Best way to fade the AI hype is long the losers.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

If these dots are plotted on the same chart, surely they must be comparable, right?

Why are we so obsessed with doing this

Anthropic is a great business, it’s growing fast, unit economics/competition is still a question mark and we’re calling this “NRR” of an insanely low base

[Nick Mehta @nrmehta]

When you have NDR like Anthropic you can afford to invest in capabilities like FDE. This chart is insane.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

“Hey - all these stocks in our video are +200-500%+ YTD. We think this is a major trend the market is CLEARLY aware of, and are telling you why it should go higher so we can sell you the shares we own.

Ignore the sustainability of the pricing and excess returns YTD and buy.”

[COATUE @coatuemgmt]

Memory is the new bottleneck.

Nick Gagnet, Coatue Sector Head, on the AI infrastructure shift and why memory demand could 5x in 5 years.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@thaAdamLittle @MRatable You realize how consumption vs. seats recognize revenue, right?

Guess if people bought your data, they would’ve seen how poor the sentiment is there with sales reps.

Just like TEAM into the latest quarter, right?

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@YellowCatCap @CoorsLightCEO @k3ithmccullough You learned that "memory is a supercycle" 3 weeks ago, bought $DRAM, outperformed ~99% of the stocks that I cover, and then just sent me Gerstner's clip about how memory deserves a structural re-rating and signed off with "we're still so early"

Fck off

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@TBU12345678 Good take.

We’re doing a lot of extrapolations with certainty around right to win and sustainability of inference margins, without really being forced to take a firm stance on ultimate market structure.

This is why some VCs recommended selling in 12-18 months at start of year

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@HedgeDirty It’s not that high though?

Besides composition and excl. the largest companies, I’ve tried “fundamentally” justifying the “index inclusion” premium as a pre/post adj. to a company’s cost of capital.

Also noodling w/ idea of potential increased cyclicality and implications

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

Pretty massive "AI kills all software" sales sentiment shift here?

Before it was "we can save you so much money by replacing all your software spend!"

to

"Tokens are expensive, we might not save you money, but you're going to like our tools better!"

[Justin Lopas @JLopas]

In the span of ~3 months, the team @basepowerco has built out operational tools that replace or avoid the purchase of an enormous amount of SaaS.

Token costs might actually equal the cost of buying the SaaS, but cost isn't the point.

It's the fact that the tools are perfectly tailored to our operations, infinitely customizeable going forward, and tied into our data.

A sampling:
- Warehouse Management System (WMS)
- Manufacturing Execution System
- CRM for B2B sales
- Material Requirements Planning (MRP)
- Sales & Operations Planning tool
- Labor crew management, forecasting, and associated vehicles tool
- Policy objectives and stakeholders tracker
- Countless dashboards for each team

The impact that AI has had on our business is incredible.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

Interesting pitch from thoughtful investors with quantifiable value creation drivers that immediately help to frame debates on the name vs. "this is a long because next quarter numbers are too low".

Would be good to have more pitches like this.

[HST Ventures, LLC @HSTVentures1]

The market appears to be missing significant upside potential in $COMP. See full analysis and disclosures here: https://t.co/IK10BC29Br.

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@BucknSF No doubt, but that’s assuming they capture those outcomes first?

They’re not really seeing any uplift from that yet (NOW Assist mostly price driven), they’re attempting to capture some consumption/outcome-based revenue.

Market skeptical of whole existing revenue base currently

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@dalibali2 @P_Remarks Part of the reason I was more constructive here, but we’re at the stage where people assign contributions to immaterial acquisitions so organic growth is pitched to be even lower than mgmt claims it is

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

@negligible_cap … and how do you think those employees are going to react to this…?

Do you think this accelerates or delays the probability of a meaningful AI tax sometime soon?

Is that good or bad for the buildout?

[LEJ Capital @LEJCapital]

Ah, thought your article last year also recommended shorting it, but see it was just exploring the capabilities.

Very well known bear case, where we're seeing random accounts highlight filing their taxes with LLM solutions (Reddit post, Perplexity Computer, etc.)

Agree there is more competition here, which will largely be reflected in higher CAC/more competition, but tax filing was never the moat here, since have always had competition.

Twitter vendetta against this name, that has gotten whacked, so just odd the continued targeting of this name, with no comments on numbers, etc. Just a "this MAY get replaced" thesis, that has worked quite well YTD