Luke Earthcrawler

Professional cynicist. In my free time I'm a physicist.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@HowardRoark90 @JonBryant421 Load up on SpaceX then. I hope you get wealthy. If you don't, plenty of people here warned you.

FYI, $TSLA sits at the same price it had in 2021. Five years of going sideways w/o paying a dividend.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

A shame it comes after big tech remolded the playdoh brains of the American public to push the AI buildup. They dialed down "climate crisis" to "meh, it's a bit warmer" in a hurry, didn't they? Pretty amazing switcheroo. The public is such a reliable, fucking gulible idiot, isn't it?

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

You clearly have no idea WTF you're talking about. The carrier frequency of optical fiber is 190 THz. Starlink's carrier frequency is sub 100 GHz. Not to mention power efficiencies. You think we laid optical fiber on ocean floors to connect continents instead of beaming data through the atmosphere for no good reason?

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@MarkTMeredith It will bring them back.

SPLASH!!!!

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@grok @js81tn @zerohedge Legitimately a cool answer. Well done, @grok !

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@TonyIsHere4You @DonMiami3 Yup. The great heist. They will rob boomer retirement accounts.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@IMHOnly @knowledge_vital @zerohedge OpenAI doesn't have $300B. My guess is they never will.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@espkc1 @knowledge_vital @zerohedge They're banking on a government bailout. OpenAI talked about it already.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

They generate about $16 billion a year in FCF w/o all this AI spending. This means this year alone, they plan to burn 6 years worth of FCF on AI infrastructure. And they plan to do it again next year. That's insane. They learned nothing from the 2000 bubble when they lost over 2/3 of their value after the bubble popped.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@QTRResearch Typical "Got a hunch buy a bunch" investment.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

Starlink is a niche market. Internet access in remote areas. In urban, suburban, and increasingly rural areas, forget it.

We have 1 Gbps plus HBO for $100/mo from AT&T. Starlink costs $135/mo for 200 Mbps, no HBO. 35% more expensive for a fifth of the speed.

You know why? Because a Starlink satellite has a lifetime of 5 years. After 5 years, it is deorbited and burns in the upper atmosphere. The ENTIRE satellite, including its solar panels, thrusters, electronics, and so on. To maintain service, a new satellite is launched. Very high capex burn rate.

Meanwhile, our fiber, installed 7 years ago, is still here. And it will be here for another 20 years. Minimal capex expenditure. AT&T is a cash machine as a business. P/FCF of 10, which is why they can give you a nearly 5% dividend. It might not be a flashy business like SpaceX, but it is (a) solid, (b) low-risk, and (c) cheap at a P/E below 8.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@shawngorham Last year we had to replace the evaporator coil in our 6yr old Lennox system. Their AC units aren't what they used to be.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@_TheFallibilist @_Investinq There is not a single universe where Tesla should be valued at its current price. These are its revenue and earnings numbers for the last four years:

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@fandompulse We gave it a good chance but stopped watching after 4-5 episodes of Season 1. Same with Rings of Power. Both shows were just modern DEI slop.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@NavigatorSaint @calvinfroedge recession

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@calvinfroedge Look at $IMPP for another crazy low valuation. Market cap LOWER than cash and cash equivalents. P/E at 3.2. Forward P/E at 2.77. Zero debt. Revenue growing.

Crazy.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@Malikas_Friend @LawrenceLepard When people need liquidity, they sell what they can, not what they want. On the other hand, gold is doing its job as money you can spend when needed.

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

@calvinfroedge Same

[Luke Earthcrawler @LEarthcrawler]

This is awesome. Great buying opportunity.

My Nexgold, on a fully diluted basis, has a market cap of $300m when they're sitting on +$100m in cash and have over 5m oz in M&I resources with two projects in Canada, one of which is fully permitted. It means you can buy them at effectively $40/oz in the ground.

This is a 20 bagger from here at current gold prices in 3 years. They'll make a FID in Q4 this year after updating Goldboro's MRE and FS and start production in 2028ish. Fully permitted open pit, 3m oz at 3.7 g/t, people.

I hope the stock drops more to buy more. Such opportunities don't come often.