Luis Hidalgo Parés

Economist | Independent Global Macro & Geopolitics Research | 20+ Years in Central Banking

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Is your investment strategy ready for what comes next?

The full framework, including the valuation math and the approach to the IPO, is on Patreon.

https://t.co/lQoKt5sOfv

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Anthropic has filed for an IPO targeting a valuation above $2 trillion. At that level, it trades at more than 400 times its 2025 revenue.

The numbers behind the filing are extraordinary.

Thread.

#Anthropic #IPO #AI #Macro

https://t.co/bFwHi9dAjT

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Compare it to SpaceX, which IPO'd at $1.77 trillion. SpaceX had 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion and a net loss of $4.9 billion.

Anthropic's valuation is higher, its revenue is smaller, and its losses are wider.

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

La apertura resuelve el acceso. La credibilidad, que fija el precio del capital, sigue pendiente.

Análisis completo en Patreon:

https://t.co/lQoKt5sOfv

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

#Venezuela abrió su sector petrolero, pero el capital todavía no ha entrado.

Las licencias de la #OFAC permiten operar. No resuelven lo que decide una inversión en crudo pesado: si las reglas seguirán vigentes dentro de diez años.

Hilo.

#Petroleo

https://t.co/tlkFssiTdV

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Las grandes petroleras aún no han firmado. Chevron amplió su producción sin capital fresco, con ganancias locales.

Con una prima de riesgo alta, un proyecto técnicamente viable deja de serlo financieramente.

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Is this a real alternative to bank credit, or a workaround for a few strong issuers?

I weigh both cases, with the academic evidence, in the full analysis:

https://t.co/lQoKt5sOfv

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Venezuela's central bank is making bank credit more expensive. Can companies borrow their way around it?

A few private issuers are testing that question on the Caracas Stock Exchange with short-term commercial paper.

A thread.

#Venezuela #BCV #BVC

https://t.co/QkF1ju7hZX

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Size matters. Fixed income traded about USD 6.16 million a month on the Caracas exchange between February and May 2026.

The BCV places about USD 1.5 billion a month through its foreign-exchange intervention scheme.

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

The full analysis, including the data, the academic literature, and the evaluation framework, is on Patreon.

https://t.co/lQoKt5sOfv

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

Against USD 1.5 billion a month needed for non-oil imports, the market is a fraction of one percent.

And access is limited to companies with an A rating, collateral, and a strong cash flow. The question is whether this is a genuine alternative or a niche workaround.

[Luis Hidalgo Parés @LHidalgoPares]

@agrisanti Que alguien le diga al BCV que encarecer el crédito para estabilizar el tipo de cambio y bajar la inflación es "represión financiera". Impactará la actividad y el crecimiento. Con inestabilidad política e institucional, las condiciones para lograrlo no son favorables.