LLJ Quant Macro

Macro trading driven by probabilities
Gold | Bonds | Equities | Oil & Gas | Cryptos
no narratives
no AI hallucination

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#GDX #GLD
Continued weakness to fill the gap?

GDX/GLD still looks heavy here.

GDX/GLD Ratio is drifting back toward that March 20 gap — and it feels like it wants to fill it. If that plays out, GDX likely keeps underperforming gold and could grind down toward the 200EMA (~80 zone).

Zooming out, the ratio just got rejected at a key resistance level. That usually signals risk-on in gold miners is cooling off (at least short term).

That said… if we do break above that level, it’s a completely different story — that’s when you get the kind of move where miners start massively outperforming (the real bull phase).

More thoughts on gold structure and strategy:

GOLD: 2011 Déjà vu? https://t.co/ZJXrEpXMKY

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#bitcoin
Bitcoin formed a hammer candle with a long lower shadow on the 4H chart last night, accompanied by decent volume.

We are now approaching the $60K lifeline, marked by the February 5, 2026 low, where I expect at least a short covering rally.

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin has fallen back to 2024 price levels, while the weighted RSI (Money Flow Index) is near historical lows. The probability of a short term relief rally appears quite high.

I am allocating 0.5% of NAV to long IBIT call options expiring next week. It is either a 10x return or a complete loss. A perfect use of my lunch money. 😉

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

Surprisingly, the bitcoin is holding pretty well around 65-66k. I closed all my puts just now and I'm waiting for momentum reversal to get in IBIT longs. It may take another day for the trade to materialize, but the reward risk ratio is pretty good here, if the signal triggers.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#BTC #IBIT

Bitcoin is in free fall as both the narrative and marginal liquidity continue to weaken.

From a technical perspective, the structural damage that began in October 2025 remains intact. The market's reaction around the 65,000 support zone will likely determine the next major move.

My IBIT puts are currently up 50% to 70%. I'll likely take profits on the June contracts if I see signs of a momentum reversal.

Longer term, a decisive break below 65,000 could open the door to a move toward 58,000. I will be holding August puts until that hits, or any major recovering signals.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@cohamizu1 I have the same wave counts. Also there is a bullish engulfing candle this morning, which usually is a strong signal in this type of structure.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@BTCBreadMan Don't worry, you are not left behind.
Your imaginary friends will lose their AI money soon enough.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

BTW, Last Friday someone built a massive position of Brent $110 Calls (June 25th expiry at $1.60), which is worth 5 billion dollars.
I am not a geopolitical expert, but this is a trade I would like to follow with my lunch money.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#CL #oil
crude oil formed a local bottom and rebounded after the peace talk rumors.
We also had a 4H bullish engulfing candle this morning, which re-tested the 20EMA, successfully. This could all of the the wave 2 traceback.
I scaled in a USO call position today and expecting crude oil reach $100 in the next two weeks.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@TheBTCTherapist Retails on camels and institutions on pickups. Based.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

$SMH

Semis have had an incredible run since early April, up roughly +43% in less than two months.

Momentum is starting to look stretched though.

SMH is now sitting near a potential double top, while the rally is sitting at exactly 3.618 Fibonacci extension from the April low.

From here, I see two paths:

• If Wednesday's high gets taken out, the next major resistance is around 643.

• If that high holds, a pullback toward the 50EMA is inevitable, just like what we saw in Gold rush late 2025.

The trend is still intact, so I will be loading SMH after the pullback and momentum re-acceleration. Then I will enjoy the last run of AI rush.

Now it's a game of patience: breakout or retracement?

#Semiconductors #SMH #Stocks #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@Itsadiee1 Agree. The impulsive upswing does look like the correction is over. It could be aggressive stop-loss covering triggered by the peace-deal headlines.
That said, from a risk/reward perspective, a small speculative long position here makes sense.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#GOLD #XAUUSD #GDX

Gold and gold miners are both holding the 200EMA right now, while markets are reacting to rumors of an Iran peace deal.

Today's impulsive rebound in #XAUUSD increases the probability that the correction is done for now.

But this market is now completely headline driven. One rejected peace offer, one escalation around Hormuz, and volatility could explode again overnight.

Welcome to the new world of trading ;)

FTR: I am holding GDX, stop-loss: 200EMA + momentum confirmation.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

#XAUUSD #GDX #GLD
Gold market had a very rare move today.

$XAUUSD gold dropped -1.32%.

But $GDX gold miners surged +4.12%.

That should NOT happen in a normal market.

So I back-tested all historical data with such strong discrepancy, and find only 7 instances in the entire history.
The most recent incident?
March 23, 2026..... you know what happened later, +25% in a month.

The most important cluster?

March 2020. During the COVID liquidity panic, spot gold was being liquidated for margin calls and USD shortage...

Yet miners refused to go down. A few weeks later: $GDX exploded +40%.

My take is: gold miners are not just “gold proxies” in these cases, but been used forward-looking cash flow instruments.

In other words, the gold miners are pricing
the expectation of improved liquidity conditions and trying to front-run the spot gold stabilization.

This type of divergence usually appears during macro transition regimes, just like in 2020 and 2026. The 2022 inflation shock regime was one of the few times this signal failed.
For me, today's move is more like a showcase of market beliving that this gold weakness will not last.

FYI: I scaled in a long position on GDX at end of the day. The stop-loss is set with 200EMA.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@charliebilello low consumer confidence + rising inflation -> stagflation. Welcome to the Weimar Republic.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

$SMH just triggered a very rare setup today.

It is now approaching ATH, again, after a short dip re-testing the 20EMA.

But the interesting part is:
The 4H and 1D charts looks like the price recovered faster than momentum normalization.

Historically, my algorithm says this exact setup only appeared 12 times. Many occurred during the strongest semiconductor momentum regimes of the past decade.

Forward performance of these 12 cases:

• 1 month: +1.6% avg
• 3 months: +6.9% avg
• 5 months: +15.8% avg

Most of the 12 cases are followed by momentum leadership and strong trend persistence.

However…
the same setup also appeared on 2020-01-02.

Less than two months later:
COVID crash happened and $SMH dropped ~30%.

Not saying history repeats. But sometimes the strongest momentum setups appear right before the market enters a completely different macro regime.

Happy trading and stay alert.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

There is no way they can hike the rate. It will be a political and fiscal suicide once you consider debt refinancing costs and housing sensitivity.
At most they can do is to temporary liquidity squeeze by supporting the short end treasury .
The system is too leveraged for a true Volcker-style regime now.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

Decades of bad economic/immigration policy + deteriorating macro conditions are slowly killing the middle class.
Canada used to be the place where a student could walk into a Tim Hortons and get a summer job instantly.
I miss that country where normal life still felt achievable for young ppl.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

At this rate, everything will breaks. Equities, bonds, even gold is facing pressure since liquidity keeps draining out of the system.
The way out probably needs some combination of:
Iran war de-escalation + liquidity injection.
That moment could become an incredible buying opportunity.
Before that, more pain on the way.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

$XAUUSD $GLD $GDX

Gold is breaking down overnight. Exactly as the pinned article expected.

The GDX/GLD ratio formed a lower high over the past few weeks, likely trapping late speculators. Now it is making a second attempt to refill the 0.195 gap.

At this point, the gap refill increasingly looks inevitable.

That means $GDX reaching the 80–82 zone soon. $XAUUSD 4400.

If that happens and followed by a reversal set-up, the next bounce will be a juicy setup.

The broader macro picture continues to follow my analysis (free):
https://t.co/mOGN8czPP1

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@Barchart Gold is the ultimate hard reserve asset, and right now it’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.
But during fiscal stress and oil shocks, gold can also come under pressure because smaller and mid-sized nations may tap their reserves for liquidity and balance sheet support.

[LLJ Quant Macro @LLJQuantMacro]

@unusual_whales NVDA products have been withdrawn on chinese e-commerce platform $JD days after it was set-up. Something is happening behind the scenes.