杜颖颖

普通小白兔

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@shibainu_vodka 我和 partner 都给他们捐过款, 他们确实是在认真做事. 如果觉得募捐邮件太多, 可以适当和他提醒一下

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@CuteDrBunny 色情兔兔

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@Corsica267 欢迎来到洛杉矶，我们这里只有大麻花，没有麻花

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@ytiihyslqlabpow we have taken an action 是个能让人心里一咯噔的邮件

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@shibainu_vodka 加州五六月早上阴天多雾, 每天要么是四五点醒来, 要么是十一点醒来, 醒来就在发呆. 经常感觉感官和真实世界之间隔着一层纱, 活着磨砂玻璃. 有种不真实的感觉.

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@shibainu_vodka 变成小兔蹭蹭你!

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@himself65 还不如攒起来清明节烧给祖宗们

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@pawpawsoda 啊 真好

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@devjoshstevens @0_xMasque @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Did you mean "X-second TWAP above/below" or "spot above/below TWAP in the last X seconds"?

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@maruko00o 好可爱好可爱呜呜

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@shibainu_vodka 我觉得还有一大部分, 尤其是基础学科的, 就是本科或者硕士学了这个专业, 然后出于惯性或者跟风继续出来念博士的. 这种人熬成一肚子怨气的学术界千老的挺多

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@bigIkayaki 裙子好漂亮啊

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

国内绝大多数右边 日本左右对半吧

[南长尾山雀 @N0rthern_Land]

我发现买的日本牌子的裙子大多是左开口拉拉链的，国内都是从右边👀

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

Just want to show this plot. Starting in March, anomalously-sized orders on CEXs spike at the end of 5-min windows. Before March, the distributions are mostly uniform and random. And, usually, this comes with a side flip on PM. @devjoshstevens
@mustafap0ly
@kakujain

[Variance Lover @variance_lover]

Polymarket fixed ghost fills which is good.

But the market is still getting farmed in one of the most obvious ways possible.

Settlement manipulation on short-term markets (especially BTC 5min) is still wide open.

If you’re actually trading these markets, you’ve seen it:

- Traders build large positions
- Then move BTC (usually via Binance) in the final seconds
- Settlement follows that move
- They cash out, liquidity providers get run over

This isn’t edge-case behavior, it’s consistent and repeatable.

And at this point, more money has been made by manipulators running this play than by actual traders providing real liquidity. They are extracting well above 50k a day in btc 5min alone.

The result:

- Liquidity disappears near settlement
- Serious market makers turn off during these windows
- Retail sees random last-second flips and loses trust
- Market quality degrades

Weekends and low-liquidity periods are especially bad, sometimes borderline untradeable.

One important point here:

Polymarket already uses Chainlink for settlement, which aggregates multiple price feeds.

But in practice, that aggregation is still heavily dominated by Binance, and Binance leads most venues. If you can move Binance a few bips at the right moment, the rest follows. That’s exactly what’s being exploited.

So while the oracle design sounds robust in theory, in reality it’s still very gameable in short time windows.

To be clear: this is a hard problem.

But it’s also a very visible one, and there’s been little real acknowledgment or discussion around it.

There are ways to mitigate it:

- Investigate and ban clearly linked manipulation clusters (many are trackable on-chain)
- Work with active traders already monitoring this behavior
- Adjust settlement (e.g. short time-weighted averages instead of single-tick pricing)
- Reduce reliance on any single venue dominating price feeds

On time-weighted averages specifically:

Retail often pushes back on this, but I haven’t heard a strong argument for why a short averaging window (e.g. last 30–60s) would be worse than a system that can be flipped in the final seconds.

Right now, the current design is clearly exploitable.

None of these fixes are perfect, but doing nothing isn’t neutral, it actively pushes liquidity out.

And that’s the real issue:

You can’t build durable markets if the participants providing liquidity are structurally at a disadvantage.

I’ve personally tracked multiple large clusters of accounts running this strategy, including linked funding, coordinated behavior, and PnL data.

Happy to share data, examples, and work through potential solutions if the team is open to engaging on this.

@devjoshstevens @mustafap0ly @kakujain @PolymarketDevs @Polymarket

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@HanaeTakah40675 @Eltonma Totally agree

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

某些 quant 圈子的人, 好像完美组合了 finance bro 和码农或者 tech bro 两个群体讨厌一面. 要是做 crypto 量化的, 还要加一点币圈哥的味道. (转自我自己, 今天遇到些操蛋事, 有感而发)

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@MiscanthusFugax 哎哟这身材

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@maruko00o 有🐻!

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@BradAllenNFL multi-billion-dollar valuation but still a garage startup

[杜颖颖 @LLeporis]

@mustafap0ly Thank you for the fancy UI. Won't continue trading until the shadow filling issue has been fully resolved.