LM_lightning

航空従事者✈️🔧 競馬📸🎟️🏇/F1🏎️/ベイスターズ⚾️/サカナクション🎸/ウマ娘🐎 素敵なiconは @hjmmmmr さんから (コミュニティの投稿は収益化を目的としたものではありません、そもそも私のインプレッション総数は収益化の基準を大幅に下回っています:2026/03/14)

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

2025/10/25 金沢8R
第23回 金沢スプリントカップ
(重賞/1400m/サラ系3歳以上/地方全国交流)

1着 4枠4番 #ミスズグランドオー (目迫大輔厩舎) / #塚本征吾 騎手

亡き兄に捧ぐ重賞勝利
本当におめでとうございました

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

ぷっすまの「ツヨシがやらかしましてね」のパロディで、宇推くりあさんが「IAがやらかしましてね」って言ってる画像が流れてくると思ってたけど流れて来ないな

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

アスクエジンバラ菊花賞目指すんだ
京都2歳Sと真逆のイン突き見せてくれ

[狂四郎＠新生(旧アキバレーシング垢) @akibaracing]

ちゃうねん。
日本人や日本のショップが価格を吊り上げたんじゃなくてインバウンドツーリストがそれまでは潤沢にあった国内在庫を状態も吟味せずに根こそぎ買っていくから価格が高騰したねん。

日本人の好事家だけが売買してた頃は本当に状態が良いものだけが高値で取引されてたのに市場は崩壊した。

[エースコンバット公式 @PROJECT_ACES]

◤￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
　　#ACE8
2026.10.2 (金)
　　発売決定
＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿◢

#エースコンバット ナンバリング最新作
『ACE COMBAT 8: WINGS OF THEVE™』

PlayStation®5 / Xbox Series X|S / STEAM®
＊アーリーアクセス：9.29 (火) 開始

#ACECOMBAT8
#WingsOfTheve

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

この人の競馬ブロス出演回見た人なら分かると思うけど、スタッフが頑張って仕上げてる馬にネガコメはしない主義の人だから信用しない方が良いですね

[netkeiba @netkeiba]

【2歳新馬戦】
叔父クロワデュノール、半兄タイダルロックという血統のエフフォーリア産駒ジョドレルバンク。

期待の良血馬に武井師がべた褒め「負ける要素ない」
https://t.co/TljNmxGVX3

[パ・リーグ.com / パーソル パ・リーグTV【公式】 @PacificleagueTV]

古巣から一発💪
バックスクリーンへ‼️
東北楽天 伊藤光 選手の第1号ソロホームラン🌈

👇日本生命セ・パ交流戦見るならパテレ！
https://t.co/QgShTmrNdp

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

船橋以外は通常開催予定なのか
昨日今日とレース見る限り馬場傾向はいつものイン前有利に戻ってるように見えるけど、雨で一気に変わりそう
差し馬天国は面白いけど予想しづらいよ

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

今週の地方重賞、木曜日開催で良かったね
水曜日だったら台風で軒並み終わってたかも

[ZERO @zero_koba]

他場騎手の活躍が物議を醸してるが
俺はピンクの夢が普遍の物に成って嬉しいんだよねぇ😅

[東スポ競馬 @tospo_keiba]

#ルガル は鮫島克駿とのコンビ継続でクイーンエリザベス2世ジュビリーS挑戦
https://t.co/lKtgLRreiZ

[葡萄農家 @BaraoHorseRace]

グリチャ中継でさきたま杯のベストグリーンは吉原とか言うてたで

[サンスポZBAT!競馬 @sanspoyosouou]

ゴンサルベス騎手が日本ダービー初騎乗を回顧　「素晴らしい思い出になった」「ファン層が全然違う」 - サンスポZBAT! https://t.co/SNcDMapxdV @sanspoyosououより

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

何で2026年にリックディアスがトレンド入りしてるんだよ
世はまさにグリプス戦役

[ラ・ロ @larolarosan]

週刊gallopにゴンサルベス騎手のインタビューが載ってたけど今回の6/28までの短期免許終了後南関で短期免許を申請する予定があるとのこと。

南関だと無双するんじゃないか🤔

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

今週の地方重賞、木曜日開催で良かったね
水曜日だったら台風で軒並み終わってたかも

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

I will add some information regarding pre-race training at the training center the day before the race.

Yuya Takeuchi (X: @ yuyaheadandhand), who provides unique prediction data through “Keiba Do Online” in partnership with the well-known racing newspaper Keiba Book @keiba_book , and who has also published How to Read Training Times (調教タイムの読み方, a book that uses JRA-VAN data to clarify the relationship between workout times and performance) has analyzed on his own YouTube channel whether there is a correlation between slope training times the day before a race and actual race results, again using JRA-VAN.

In this video, he also notes that the Takashi Saito stable is one of the stables where horses that recorded a solid time in training for the day before the race tend to perform better:
https://t.co/GHUHCnA5Im

Although the video is nearly an hour long, the correlation between pre-race training and race performance that it reveals stands apart from the subjective “I just feel they run well” intuitions of racing journalists and tipsters.
It is a data-driven correlation based on the vast volume of actual results stored in JRA-VAN.

In his book How to Read Training Times (調教タイムの読み方), published in October 2024, he also covers slope training the day before the race.
In addition to naming the trainer of Basse Terre — the stable highlighted in the tweet mentioned earlier as one with strong results — the section on the trainer of Paintre Naif notes a particularly strong correlation between weekend slope times one week before the race and subsequent performance.

My own decision to place training-center workout times at the center of my racing analysis since 2024 owes a great deal to his influence.

When Yushun Himba winner Juryoku Pierrot ran in the listed Wasurenagusa Sho, I was able to bet her because I noticed she had recorded a fast time at the training center the day before.

Likewise, after losing on the Japan Derby, I was able to claw back some of those losses with a place bet on Emanuele (7th fav) in the Kyoto 12th race the one hour later, again because I had spotted a sharp training time the day before.

If you reading this have a reasonable command of Japanese and live in Japan where you can subscribe to JRA-VAN, it may be worth looking into.
(JRA-VAN's terms and conditions state that "service provision is limited to within Japan.")
https://t.co/uruTwFtBSk

(At the very end, I really didn’t want this to feel like advertising, but since I switched the core of my racing method to training times, I’ve been able to watch races with a much calmer mindset.
When a horse I targeted lost, I used to think things like “That useless jockey, why can’t he ride properly?” Now I can usually say to myself, “Even with training times that clearly suggested good performance, it still lost — that’s just racing.
Next time it comes out with another strong workout, I’ll back it again.”
Of course, when there’s genuinely bizarre riding, I still mutter “ride properly” under my breath…
I don’t know how much longer this community will last, so I wanted to share at least a little of the method that has changed how I experience racing.)

(3/3)

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

The “Iron Rule” of the Japanese Derby Broken After 28 Years?

The community feature is somehow still active even in June, so before its lifespan runs out, I’ve decided to post this topic I’d been hesitating to share, partly to steer everyone’s attention toward the community and the Discord server (whenever it finally opens).

As you all know, Lovcen won the 2026 Japanese Derby.

Did you realize that two extraordinary things happened in this Derby for the first time in 28 years?

There’s a YouTube channel called “情報通のウマ談義” with over 150,000 subscribers, among the many Japanese horse-racing YouTubers, they are widely regarded as especially well-informed about the inner workings of owners and racing connections.

Ever since they began posting videos in 2022, they have repeated the same “Iron Rule” every single year up to this one just before the Japanese Derby:

“In the Japanese Derby, no horse that came through the Satsuki Sho (the first leg) has finished in the top three unless it placed 5th or better in the Satsuki Sho or was 5th favorite or better in the win odds.”

https://t.co/7BSaThmqMq

This jinx, which had held since 1999, was finally shattered when Peintre Naif (8th fav, 14th in the Satsuki Sho) finished 2nd and Basse Terre (6th fav, 11th in the Satsuki Sho) finished 3rd.
A genuine rarity after 28 years.

So why were these two able to run so well in the Japanese Derby?
I want to argue that this was not a coincidence, but a necessity—the result of the trainers’ clear intentions finally bearing fruit.

Let me explain my reasoning, starting with Peintre Naif.
He is trained by Tetsuya Kimura.
Because of pain in his hind legs, he had to skip the Yayoi Sho (the trial race for Satsuki Sho) and was forced to run the Satsuki Sho directly off the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, just like his stable’s legendary senior, Equinox.
https://t.co/Rb4lv3bpqu

The road to the Satsuki Sho was anything but smooth, so his 14th place finish is easy to understand.
As for why he was only 8th fav, fans were clearly doubtful about his suitability for Nakayama and the fact that he was coming off an injury layoff.

However, both the trainer and Northern Farm Ten’ei had already experienced exactly this path with Equinox: run the Satsuki Sho as the first start of the year, then finish a strong 2nd in the 2022 Japanese Derby.

In fact, his slope-work times and sectional splits the Sunday before the Japanese Derby (available on JRA-VAN or in the racing papers) were faster than those recorded before the Tokyo Sports Hai he won.
His condition was clearly on the rise.

(The Kimura stable’s routine is well known: fast times on the Miho’s slope on the Saturday and Sunday before a race (a week ago), followed by a final workout on the woodchip course on Wednesday.
All times are automatically recorded by IC tags, but JRA-VAN’s SNS guidelines prevent us from publishing the exact figures.)

Reference article on how training-center workout times are measured:
https://t.co/dZAVtl4UoZ

Now, what about Basse Terre?

Let's talk about that in the next post.
This has gotten too long.

(1/3)

[JRA公式 @JRA_Special]

【日本ダービー（GⅠ）】
#松山弘平 騎手騎乗の #ロブチェン が優勝🏇

ロブチェンは皐月賞に続き、日本ダービーも制してクラシック二冠を達成‼️
松山騎手はダービージョッキーの称号を手にしました👑👏

🔽レース結果はこちら
https://t.co/RKOPVbdsDI

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

Basse Terre’s woodchip workout at Ritto the previous Wednesday was actually slower than the one before the Yayoi Sho.
But on Saturday, May 30th (the day before long-distance transport) he did something extremely unusual: a pre-transport workout the morning before shipping at woodchip course.

Horses based at Ritto (near Hanshin/Kyoto) or Miho (near Tokyo/Nakayama) normally ship on race day for short-distance trips. Long-distance shipments (Miho horses to Hanshin, Ritto horses to Tokyo, etc.) are done the day before.

Because of this, almost no horse does a serious workout on the slope or woodchip course the day before a long-distance transport. “Almost never.”

Yet according to JRA-VAN, trainer Takashi Saito deliberately sent Basse Terre out on the woodchip course early that morning, running at a deliberately slower tempo because long-distance transport was coming the next day.

Does this ring a bell?
Back in early April, the same trainer did something very similar with Croix du Nord in the Osaka Hai, he had the horse work on the slope at dawn on the morning of the race itself.
https://t.co/E7PIfOtJ7h

Even for short-distance transport, a workout on race morning is extremely rare. For a long-distance ship, it’s virtually unheard of.

During the Derby itself, the pace eased in the middle stages. Jockey Yuga Kawada seized that moment to move Basse Terre up into the leading group without having to thread his way through traffic, an obvious advantage.

But I suspect trainer Saito had something more deliberate in mind by scheduling that pre-transport (or even race-day) workout.
JRA trainers do not choose courses and training schedules randomly.
Every decision is made with clear purpose.

The special, carefully planned training these two trainers gave their horses for the once-in-a-lifetime stage of the Japanese Derby may well be exactly what produced this historic 28-year breakthrough.

(2/3)

[パドックを監視する無名競馬記者田井 @baTAI_padock]

話題になっているハンデについては1ヶ月に1回はコラムで文句つけさせていただいてます。画像は先週日曜のコラム。

実績（客観）による重斤量と、ハンデキャッパーが強いと思っている（主観）馬の重斤量が混在して、ダブルスタンダードになっているのが良くないと思います。ハンデ戦アンチより。

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

Graham-san, I’m honored that you said that.

Honestly, there are still so many pieces of knowledge that I haven’t posted enough about yet. These aren’t things that should be kept locked away only in my brain, they should be shared to contribute to the collective intelligence on X and in the community.

Once Discord is launched, I might post similar content not only on Discord but also on X, and use this accaunt, not only daily tweet, but also as a personal memo for my Keiba knowledge.

(I do feel a bit guilty about flooding the feeds of people who follow my account specifically for that knowledge with posts that are mostly just my random ramblings.)

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

【My Farewell Message on the Discontinuation of the X Community Feature】

It is now 11:30 PM JST on May 29.
I’ve heard that X’s community feature will be discontinued as of May 30.

I’ve been extremely busy lately and haven’t even had time to post topics, so there is a touch of nostalgia, but above all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who has read my posts in this community.

It has now been more than two years since I joined this English-language community. Among all the memories, one that particularly stands out is the discussion surrounding whether there would be a stewards’ inquiry after Forever Young finished third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

A Japanese journalist posted the background at the time: “Owner Fujita decided not to lodge an objection so as not to dampen the tremendous praise that Forever Young’s performance was receiving.”
Back then, X did not yet have the translation feature it has today.
I saw English-speaking users posting things like “Yahagi and Fujita are idiots for not filing an objection,” and I remember thinking, “If only there were a translation function that could instantly convey racing information from both Japan and overseas…”

Now, thanks to X’s built-in translation and the release of the English version of Uma Musume, Japanese racing news spreads naturally into English and other languages without the extra step of manual translation.
This is genuinely something to celebrate.
JRA’s decision to begin official live race streaming is also a very significant development.
It has also been decided that, starting in 2028, Jpn-graded races held at NAR tracks will be progressively upgraded to International Grade status.

Next week, the JRA’s 2yo maiden “Make Debut” races will begin as well.

After the community is discontinued, I probably won’t be posting much in English about Japanese racing outside of replies (to be honest, I’m so busy with work that I’m even writing this post during a short break😩).

Still, I truly hope we can continue to enjoy Japanese racing, the overseas successes of Japanese horses, and the arrival of top foreign horses in Japan together.

Of course, if you ever have any questions, please feel free to reply anytime—I’ll be happy to respond!

[LM_lightning @LM_lightning]

アシュリンジャパンが持ち込み馬のエースインパクト産駒を提供している

[ユニオンオーナーズクラブ公式 @UnionOwnersClub]

2026年度1歳募集馬のラインナップを発表しました🏇
募集要項などはこちらから☟
https://t.co/1WrEbZydvR