barranidel55,69%

MARATONISTA x5

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@Stramarce Re mil techo de mercado

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

The myth of luck

People love talking about luck. Someone builds a billion dollar company and they were “lucky.” Someone bought the right stock at the right time and they were “lucky.” Someone met the love of their life by chance and they were “lucky.” Looking backward, life often appears random. Looking closer and thinking deeply, it usually isn’t.

What we call luck is often the delayed byproduct of consistently putting yourself in good positions. It has far less to do with predicting exactly what will happen and far more to do with making decisions that slowly improve the odds in your favor. Most people don’t notice this because the compounding is invisible while it is happening. By the time the outcome finally arrives, the years of preparation have been forgotten.

One of the biggest mistakes people make is believing life is a game of certainty. They spend their time asking whether something will happen instead of asking whether they are positioned if it does happen. Great investors, entrepreneurs, athletes and leaders understand this difference. They know they cannot control the future, but they can absolutely control how prepared they are for it.

Every decision changes the probability distribution of your future. Reading one more book probably won’t change your life. Neither will one workout, one conversation, one dollar invested or one networking event. The power comes from stacking those decisions year after year until the probabilities begin to heavily favor you. Eventually people call the outcome luck because they never saw the thousands of small decisions that produced it.

This is why people constantly confuse the harvest with the seed. They celebrate the company after it becomes worth billions but ignore the decade spent learning, failing, reading, improving and taking intelligent risks. They admire the investor after the stock has increased tenfold but rarely appreciate the thousands of hours spent studying businesses before making the investment. The harvest is obvious, but seeds were buried underground where nobody was paying attention.

The fascinating thing about life is that good decisions do more than increase your odds. They create optionality. Every dollar you save gives you another opportunity you can say yes to. Every relationship you build opens another door. Every skill you develop creates possibilities that simply did not exist before. Wealth is not just money. Wealth is having choices when opportunity finally knocks. Luck is when opportunity meets preparation.

Looking backward, these moments seem almost inevitable. Looking forward, they are almost impossible to identify. Nobody knows which book will change the way they think forever, which conversation will lead to a business partnership or which investment will transform their financial future. The goal is not to predict the exact opportunity. The goal is to keep putting yourself in positions where opportunities are more likely to find you.

One of the reasons I love investing is because it constantly reinforces this lesson. You do not need to predict recessions, elections, interest rates or tomorrow’s headlines with perfect accuracy. You simply need to consistently buy wonderful businesses at sensible prices, avoid permanent mistakes and allow time to do most of the heavy lifting. Positioning is usually far more valuable than prediction.

The same principle applies almost everywhere else in life. Healthy people are rarely transformed by one workout. Great marriages are rarely built because of one romantic vacation. Exceptional careers are rarely created because of one brilliant meeting. Extraordinary lives are usually nothing more than ordinary decisions compounded for an extraordinarily long period of time.

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[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@migoya @InversorPerga @Globant @migoya podría hablar de las SBC estimado!

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@RCachanosky HOLA

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@colomilei @Pipo_Bpo Estimado, vió la notica de Nagarro? Empresa similar a Glob. También vale cero?

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@varuninvesting $meli $meta $nu $nvda @eldaminato

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@EricSanta98 Que poco tengo de esta joya 💎

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@AlanRiedmaier EMHO nos sirve 75/80 usd estables en el barril para Vaca muerta, Alan querido!!

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@GiacoDiego Nunca hubo tal discusión Dieguito, el tiempo pone todo en su lugar

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@Argenpoirot BIELSA

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@0800nacho @IebMas @GrupoIEB Gracias como siempre Nacho!!!!

[Javier Milei @JMilei]

VAMOS ARGENTINA CARAJO...!!!
Messi máximo goleador de la historia de los mundiales. La alegría es toda de la celeste y blanca. La alegría no tiene ni tendrá fin.

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

Making money vs building wealth

I think one of the most misunderstood concepts in investing is that there are two completely different ways to make money.

The first is through repricing when you buy something for less than it is worth and wait for the market to agree with you. The stock rises, the valuation gap closes, and you make a profit. (Ie $ADBE, $PFE, $NVO, $BBW etc).

The second is through compounding when you buy a business that becomes more valuable year after year. Revenue grows, earnings grow, cash flow grows, and intrinsic value grows. (Ie $MELI, $RMS, $CRWD, $APM, $AMZN, $WING, etc).

At first glance these appear to be the same thing because both can make money. Underneath the surface they are entirely different games. One is driven primarily by valuation while the other is driven primarily by business performance.

Repricing depends on the market changing its opinion. Compounding depends on the business improving its economics. One asks whether the stock is cheap today while the other asks whether the business can be dramatically larger ten years from now.

Many of the companies being discussed today fall into the first category. They may very well be undervalued. Some may rise 50%, 100%, or even more as sentiment improves and valuation multiples normalize. I do not disagree with any of that.

What I question is whether that is where extraordinary wealth is created. Making money and building wealth are not always the same thing. One is often a transaction while the other is a process.

A stock that rises 100% because sentiment improves has largely reached the finish line. The valuation gap has closed and the original thesis has played out. The investor is now faced with another decision and another search for the next opportunity.

A great business is different. The finish line keeps moving farther away because the business itself keeps creating value. Every year management reinvests capital, expands the moat, increases earnings, and raises intrinsic value.

One investment eventually asks you to sell. The other begs you not to. That distinction sounds subtle but it changes everything. One depends on being right about valuation. The other depends on being right about the business.

The greatest fortunes in investing were not built because investors repeatedly discovered undervalued stocks. They were built because investors found businesses that could compound for decades and then had the discipline to leave them alone.

The irony is that the stock market trains people to think like traders while the largest fortunes are usually built by owners. Most investors spend their time searching for discounts while exceptional investors spend their time searching for compounding machines.

The most expensive mistake in investing is not overpaying. It is owning something that merely works when you could have owned something extraordinary. Opportunity cost is invisible, which is why so few investors appreciate how powerful it really is.

The goal is not to maximize returns on the next trade. The goal is to maximize the length of time that you never have to make another investment decision. Find a wonderful business, make one good decision, and then get out of your own way.

Happy Father’s Day,
🌹

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@BourbonCap GRAN VICTORIA DE LA DERECHA EN COLOMBIA!!!!!

[barranidel55,69% @LPiergentile]

@FranCerundolo Creetelá Fran !!! Gracias por representarnos tan bien 🇦🇷🇦🇷🇦🇷

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

The most important investment question nobody asks

Lots of people ask questions like what stock should I buy, what do you think of this company, or is this stock cheap. They are common questions and we have all heard them a million times before. Yet almost nobody asks the question that matters most. What is my investment goal and what am I actually trying to achieve?

The answer matters far more than the stock itself. The stock market is one of the only places where people spend more time researching what to buy than defining what success looks like. They debate valuations, earnings, interest rates, economic forecasts, and market cycles. Yet if you do not know where you are trying to go, no strategy can tell you whether you are winning or losing.

Imagine you buy a stock at $20 and sell it at $30. You make 50%, pay taxes, and then repeat the process all over again. You tell everyone how smart you are because you made 50%. Maybe you did.

But if your goal is to become wealthy, that strategy is often terrible. The irony is that many investors claim they want wealth while behaving in a way that almost guarantees they will never achieve it. They optimize for excitement when their actual goal requires patience. They constantly search for the next winner while interrupting the winners they already have.

The stock market has created countless fortunes, but very few were built through constant buying and selling. Most were built by owning a small number of exceptional businesses for a very long time. The greatest fortunes were not created by finding winners. They were created by refusing to interrupt winners.

Every time you interrupt compounding, you reset the clock. It is the equivalent of a farmer digging up his crops shortly after planting them just to check whether the roots are growing. The digging feels productive and intelligent. In reality it is often the very thing preventing the harvest.

Most people understand money, but very few understand time. A young investor with a great business and thirty years may ultimately outperform a brilliant investor with ten. Compounding needs time the same way a tree needs soil. Without it, nothing extraordinary happens.

Imagine planting a single apple seed. Years later it becomes a tree and years after that it becomes an orchard. The wealth was never in the seed itself. The wealth was in giving the seed enough time to become something much larger than itself. The same principle governs investing.

Many investors spend their lives looking for stocks while the great ones spend their lives looking for businesses. The stock is simply the vehicle and the business is the engine. Real wealth comes from owning productive assets and allowing them to grow. The market quote is often the least important part of the equation.

This is why the stock market confuses so many people. If someone bought a private business producing a million dollars a year in profits, they would probably hold it for decades. They would focus on customers, employees, margins, and growth. Yet when the exact same business is wrapped inside a stock certificate, people suddenly want to sell it because the price went up 30%.

Nothing about the business changed. Only the quote changed. The stock market has a strange ability to make intelligent people behave irrationally. It encourages activity even when inactivity would produce a better outcome. That is one of its greatest paradoxes.

Years ago I read a book called Fool by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. One of the central ideas is that people constantly attribute meaning to events that are often nothing more than noise. That lesson applies perfectly to investing. Many investors spend their lives reacting to random market fluctuations and convincing themselves they are responding to important information.

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[Damian Brik @eldaminato]

Muy importante lo que explica con títeres @FedexSTi sobre el impacto contable de las provisiones en los préstamos.

Aprovecho ese ejemplo para acompañar con números reales de $MELI que ayudan a tomar mayor dimensión de cómo está creciendo el negocio.

Portafolio de créditos al 1Q26 es de USD 14.555 millones. Hace 3 años era de USD 3B. Hace 2, de USD 4.4B. El último año crecio al 87% interanual y es USD 2B mas grande que hace apenas 3 meses atrás.

La cartera de créditos de Mercado Pago se multiplicó por 5x en 3 años y es del triple que hace 24 meses. Se está expandiendo a un ritmo de unos USD 700 millones por mes. No es casual que hayan emitido mas de 2 millones de tarjetas de crédito el último trimestre. Esos saltos tan bruscos con nuevos préstamos otorgados generan a su vez nuevas provisiones que castigan los márgenes (marcadas en violeta).

Una parte de la compresión de márgenes del negocio de $MELI tiene que ver con los mayores descuentos que hace la compañía especialmente en Brasil para ofrecer el free shipping y captar mas clientes (le está funcionando bien a costa de sacrificar utilidad). La otra parte es por la provisión de créditos de cobro dudoso (que es lo que explicó Fede).

En el último trimestre, $MELI provisionó USD 1.2B cuando hace un año fueron USD 600M. Las provisiones se multiplicaron por 2x cuando el revenue creció al 49% y hoy explican el 14% de los ingresos totales. Hace un año eran del 10%. Hace 2 eran del 8.6%. Aumentan muy fuerte los créditos que crecen casi al doble que el revenue total y hacen disparar las provisiones castigando márgenes.

Por eso el NIMAL (línea naranja) se fue comprimiendo y a su vez el margen operativo de la compañía que es del 6.9% cuando un año atrás estaba en el 12.9% y en el 12.2% en 2024. Esa dinámica de corto/mediano plazo es lo que al mercado no le está gustando, por eso la cotización lo sufre (tampoco ayuda el humor general con el sector fintech). Sin embargo, el negocio se está expandiendo, no se está achicando. Cada vez tiene mas clientes y mayores ingresos.

En resumen, si miramos la película es que cada vez hay mas usuarios activos en su ecosistema, mas tarjetas emitidas y mas préstamos otorgados con un razonable nivel de mora.

¿Cuantos bancos conocen que sean capaces de hacer crecer su portafolio de créditos a estas tasas sin fundirse?

Algo similar le ocurrió a $NU en su último trimestre.

Cuando veamos que el nivel de provisiones baje en relación a los ingresos y el margen operativo rebote, seguramente el mercado se vuelva a entusiasmar con que ya hizo "piso" la compresión de márgenes.

Cuando sucederá eso? Nadie lo sabe, de hecho el management señaló que su objetiuvo es seguir creciendo a toda velocidad aprovechando oportunidades y no les preocupa de corto plazo la "foto" del balance en cuanto a menores márgenes por impacto de provisiones.

Lo que considero muy probable es que primero empiece a subir la cotización y luego lo acompañen los números y los re-rate de targets de analistas.

Short term pain para long term gain.

[Javier Milei @JMilei]

VAMOS ARGENTINA CARAJO...!!!