Projection Lab | Sports Analytics

NBA player prop projections
100k simulation model
Usage • Minutes • Matchups
Looking for edges vs the books

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

Welcome to ProjectionLab 🧪

We don’t give picks.
We don’t sell locks.

We build player stat projections using:
• Minutes / playing time
• Usage / involvement
• Role + lineup context
• Matchup data

Across multiple sports.
🟢 Green Plays = spots where our projections show a higher hit rate than the line
Not advice. Just data.
Process > Results
#SportsAnalytics #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

Updated Overall Record: 32–32

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Recap 🧪

Record: 1–1

Wins:
✔ Jokic PRA — multi-path dominance
Losses:
✖ Holiday AST — role didn’t translate

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab 🧪

Green Plays + Game Projection

We’re not chasing box scores.
We’re projecting how they’re built.

Process > Results

#NBAProps #DFS #SportsAnalytics #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

@fabiolauria92 100% Process over surface stats.

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

Welcome to ProjectionLab 🧪

We don’t give picks.
We don’t sell locks.

We build player stat projections using:
• Minutes / playing time
• Usage / involvement
• Role + lineup context
• Matchup data

Across multiple sports.
🟢 Green Plays = spots where our projections show a higher hit rate than the line
Not advice. Just data.
Process > Results
#SportsAnalytics #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

Updated Overall Record: 31–31

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Recap

Record: 1–2

Wins:
✔ Harden AST (role + usage nailed)
Losses:
✖ Mobley REB
✖ Mobley PRA

#NBAProps #NBABetting #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays 🧪🟢

Process > Results

#NBAProps #NBABetting #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Update 📊

Overall Record: 30–29

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

DET vs GS: 1–2

Wins:
✔ Podziemski PRA
Losses:
✖ Duren REB (minutes)
✖ Melton PTS (hook)

Takeaways:
• PRA continues to lead
• Minutes volatility matters
• Hooks = part of the game
Process > Results

#NBAProps #NBABetting #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays 🧪📊

Box Score Sim + Full Breakdown ⬇️
(Model factoring usage shifts, DVP, and lineup context)

Process > Results

#NBAProps #NBABetting #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #DFS #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart #NBAModel

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

HOU vs ATL: 1–2

Wins:
✔ Sengun PRA
Losses:
✖ Sengun PTS
✖ Amen Thompson PTS

Takeaways:
• Sengun = hub (AST/PRA > PTS)
• Young players = volatile scoring
• Role > matchup

Process > Results

#NBAProps #NBABetting #DFS #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays 🧪

Box Score Sim + Green Plays

#NBAProps #NBABetting #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #DFS #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart #NBAModel

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

POR vs MIN: 4–1 ✅

Wins:
✔ DiVincenzo 3PM
✔ Gobert REB
✔ Dosunmu PTS
✔ Avdija REB
Loss:
✖ Randle PRA
Takeaways:
• Volume shooting = elite signal
• Rebounding edges printing
• PRA needs multiple paths
Process > Results
#NBAProps #NBABetting #DFS #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays 🧪

Box Score Sim + Green Plays

#NBAProps #NBABetting #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #DFS #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart #NBAModel

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

Updated Overall Record: 24–24

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

ORL vs CHA

🔴 Banchero O37.5 PRA
30 PRA ❌
(28 mins — usage hit, run didn’t)
🔴 LaMelo O6.5 AST
5 AST ❌
(20 mins — blowout limited ceiling)
🔴 Wendell Carter Jr O7.5 REB (+120)
7 REB ❌
(Hook loss)

Card Result: 0–3

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays

🟢 Paolo Banchero O37.5 PRA
Projection: 40.2
Hit Rate: 64%

🟢 LaMelo Ball O6.5 AST
Projection: 8.9
Hit Rate: 63%

🟢 Wendell Carter Jr. O7.5 REB (+120)
Projection: 11.1
Hit Rate: 61%

Best Angle: Usage funnel (Banchero) + Primary creator (LaMelo) + Rebound edge (Carter)
Process > Results
#NBAProps #SportsBetting #DFS #NBABetting #PlayerProps #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

PHX vs SA

🔴 De’Aaron Fox O5.5 AST
3 AST ❌
(Role miss — scoring over facilitation)

🟢 Wembanyama O11.5 REB
12 REB ✅
(Dominant interior matchup)

🟡 Devin Booker O27.5 PTS
22 PTS ❌
(21 FGA — volume there, shots didn’t fall)

Card Result: 1–2

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays

🟢 De’Aaron Fox O5.5 AST
Projection: 7.9
Hit Rate: 64%

🟢 Victor Wembanyama O11.5 REB
Projection: 13.1
Hit Rate: 61%

🟢 Devin Booker O27.5 PTS
Projection: 29.4
Hit Rate: 58%

Best Angle: Spurs ball movement + Suns interior weakness + Booker usage floor

Process > Results
#NBAProps #NBABetting #PlayerProps #DFS #SportsBetting #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Results

MIL vs UTA

🟡 Bobby Portis O7.5 REB
6 REB ❌
(24 mins in blowout — per-minute rate was fine, run wasn’t)

🔴 Bobby Portis O16.5 PTS
11 PTS ❌
(Bucks offense collapsed — 96 total pts)

🟡 Kevin Porter Jr O6.5 AST
DNP
(Did not start → role downgrade, edge impacted)

Card Result: 0–2

[Projection Lab | Sports Analytics @LabProject77980]

ProjectionLab Green Plays

🟢 Bobby Portis O7.5 REB
Projection: 11.9
Hit Rate: 67%

🟢 Bobby Portis O16.5 PTS
Projection: 21.2
Hit Rate: 61%

🟢 Kevin Porter Jr O6.5 AST
Projection: 7.5
Hit Rate: 58%

Best Angle: No Giannis = elite rebounding + interior usage + primary playmaker control

Process > Results
#NBAProps #NBABetting #PlayerProps #DFS #SportsBetting #GamblingTwitter #ProjectionLab #BetSmart