Lake Stevens Pete

“You get what you put in…”

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

I’ve spent most of my business life asking the same question:

Is there a better way to do this?

AI has given that question an entirely new meaning.

I’m not interested in AI because it’s the latest technology.

I’m interested because it gives a small business owner capabilities that once required more people, more time and more money.

Although we’re still early, I’m embracing AI and using it as much as possible.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

@TerribleTerry83 Gus Williams

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

@jameslavish Higher yields mean higher federal interest costs and more Treasury issuance. If private buyers balk, the Fed may have to absorb more debt… fueling debasement. That can be a long-term tailwind for Bitcoin as scarce, non-sovereign money.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

One reason I’m so interested in AI as a business owner:

Small businesses have always had ideas we didn’t pursue because we lacked the time, people or resources.

AI is starting to change that equation.

I’m finding myself asking less, “Do we have the resources to do this?”

And more, “Could an AI agent help us do it?”

That’s a pretty significant shift.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

@jackmallers And this is not even including our “Unfunded Liabilities” (ie., SocSec, Meda… etc)

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

After suffering detached retinas in both eyes and undergoing five eye surgeries, I ultimately lost most of the sight in my right eye. Thankfully, I came through it all with perfect vision in my left eye.

When I was released to drive again in February 2026, Tesla’s self-driving technology became an incredible godsend. I embraced it immediately and have used it on nearly every drive since.

According to my Tesla app, 82% of my driving is now done using self-driving, and that percentage continues to increase each month.

For me, this technology is about far more than convenience. It has given me greater confidence, independence, and peace of mind behind the wheel.

Self-driving is a rare and remarkable gift… one I fully embrace.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

@natbrunell Buy… Borrow… Die. For those who may scoff at this idea, learn what it truly means and how it can work for wealth creation. All… while never selling Bitcoin. I’m doing it successfully even thru a 50% dip. Thanks NB!!

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

Most of us will always remember where we were and what we were doing on 9/11. That memory still brings deep hurt for those lost, and for the families and friends left to live life without them.

That day changed so much, even the way we travel and think about safety.

We remember. We pray.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

One thing business ownership has taught me:

Most problems are not solved by one big decision.

They’re solved by a lot of small decisions made consistently... hiring a little better, watching costs a little closer, communicating a little clearer, fixing small problems before they become big ones.

The dramatic decisions get the attention.

The ordinary ones usually build the business.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

I recently found a leadership exercise I completed in 2012.

What struck me wasn’t how much I’ve changed.

It was how much the 14 years since have reinforced what I already believed.

Be decisive. Question the status quo. Protect your core principles. Develop people. Keep trying to make things better.

Experience didn’t replace those beliefs.

It deepened them.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

I went heavy into Bitcoin in Sept ’24, then again from Nov ’24 through Jan ’25. Rode it toward $126K. Then watched it bleed from Oct ’25.

That wasn’t the hard part… the hard part was deciding what I actually believed.

So, I read and read and read, and then I listened. And I wrote a plain English paper for myself on how Bitcoin works, not to impress anyone, but to make sure I understood it. That work mattered when price got ugly in early ’26.

Sound money. Long time horizon. An answer to a world built on ever expanding credit.

Still here.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

I don’t usually post here, but a big shout out to Ellon and the Grok gang. Today I stood up 11 Grok Bots as actual staff car wash businesses, HVAC business, luxury vacation rentals business, bitcoin books, and inboxes. They work in the real tools, run while I’m away, and only ping me when something needs a decision. First time AI felt like a hire, not a chat window.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

@WhaleFactor On July 1, 2026, Reuters reported that Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000, down from its then-current $112,000 target. Citi also lowered its bear case to $53,000.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

Yes:
•Futures, options, ETFs, and swaps often set short-term price
•Leverage dominates intra-cycle moves

But:
•Spot demand sets the floor and ceiling over time
•Long-term holders, ETFs, treasuries, and sovereign flows require real BTC
•Paper BTC cannot exit the system without someone sourcing actual coins

When real demand overwhelms synthetic positioning, derivatives must chase spot, not suppress it.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

Synthetic instruments do not eliminate scarcity because:
•Derivatives do not create Bitcoin
•They create claims that must ultimately settle against real BTC or cash
•They net out over time

Scarcity exists at settlement, not at the trade entry.

This is the critical mistake in the argument.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Why Math Says This Is the Largest Pricing Error in Bitcoin History (≈105% Implied 12-Month CAGR)

Bitcoin is trading at a −35.5% deviation below its 15-year power-law trend. That is not an opinion; it is a statistical displacement the market is currently ignoring.

Power-law fair value today: $122,425
Spot price: ~$79K
That places Bitcoin firmly in the historical “oversold” regime (Z-score: −0.63).

At this depth, price doesn’t just "drift" back to trend.

It snaps.

I back tested every comparable oversold event since 2010.
Results over the following 12 months:

Win rate: 100%
Average return: +100%+

Sentiment was irrelevant every time. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean reversion process was not.

This deviation has a measurable Half-Life: 133 days.
In simple terms: The market historically corrects 50% of its pricing error every 4.4 months, 100% in ~9 months.

The $43,457 gap is a compressed spring. As it relaxes, the "snap-back" velocity dictates the path:

June 2026: $113K
October 2026: $145K
January 2027: $162K

Model fit: R^2 = 0.96 (Solid)
18-month predictive correlation: 0.55
(55% of the price movement 18 months from now is statistically explained solely by the Z-score (deviation).

We are at the extreme left tail of the distribution. This is where expected value concentrates. Math supports an aggressive ~0.6x Half-Kelly allocation.

The market is offering a significant discount.

Closing the Gap

Today
Bitcoin is ~$43.5k below its power-law trend value, a −35.5% deviation. This is the extreme left tail. Historically, this is where forward returns concentrate because the error is too large to persist.

Oct 2026
The gap compresses to ~$11k (−6.8%).
That implies roughly 75% of the anomaly has already reverted. At this point, the trade is no longer “deep value” it’s transitioning into normalization.

Implied fair value ≈ $155k
Implied Bitcoin price ≈ $145k

Jan 2027
The gap shrinks to ~$7k (−4%).

Implied fair value ≈ $168k
Implied Bitcoin price ≈ $162k

CAGR ~105% (Next 12 Months)

Why This Analysis Is Robust:

The Power Law captures Bitcoin's diminishing returns and logarithmic adoption curve (R² = 0.96).

It’s Mean-Reverting: The OU Process proves that price is tethered to value. The further it stretches (Z-score), the stronger the force pulling it back.

It’s Statistically Significant: The 18-month predictive correlation is 0.55. This means 55% of Bitcoin's future price action is explained solely by today's deviation. That is an incredibly high signal-to-noise ratio for any asset class.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

Thanks for the thoughts NB...
Bitcoin volatility challenging your commitments to stay with Bitcoin?
“Circumstances are the means by which the soul receives its own.” (As a Man Thinketh - James Allen)

Market volatility doesn’t determine outcomes, focus does. Short-term thinking leads to fear. Long-term conviction allows time to do the work. In Bitcoin, patience isn’t passive, it is the strategy.

[Lake Stevens Pete @LakeStevensPete]

Bitcoin volatility challenging your commitments to stay with Bitcoin?
“Circumstances are the means by which the soul receives its own.” (As a Man Thinketh - James Allen)

Market volatility doesn’t determine outcomes, focus does. Short-term thinking leads to fear. Long-term conviction allows time to do the work.
In Bitcoin, patience isn’t passive—it’s the strategy.