Larry Sabato

Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century Read the Crystal Ball every week:

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

A favorite JFK quote: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.'

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Our @Center4Politics post election conference is underway now. House is full but plenty of room online. Join us.
https://t.co/QnA1pHwY9f

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

LIVE TODAY (Nov 12th) starting at 2PM ET: The 28th annual American Democracy Conference @UVA @Center4Politics @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball
Join us here:
https://t.co/CovswZrGJp

[Ronald Brownstein @RonBrownstein]

Heading into this election, Democrats controlled 0 of the 50 Senate seats in the states that voted 3x for Trump. After MS, and likely Alaska, they will hold 8 of them. A remarkable storming of the gates Rs had built around the 3x Trump states. Added TX/IA/OH/AK governors too

[Jonathan Martin @jmart]

In the small world that is Mississippi politics, Wicker has a longstanding connection to Colom - the senior senator is longtime friends w Colom’s dad.

In fact, Wicker and Wil Colom shared a ballot in 1987 - and both as Republicans

(The elder Colom lost for treasurer but Wicker won for state sen )

[Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann]

Many more young Trump voters did not vote this year, rather than switch to Democratic candidates. But almost no young Harris voters switched to Republican candidates & many more showed up for Democrats this year.
https://t.co/WTLA8vtrXx

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

Solid chance Trump’s approval is in the 20s among adults before Election Day 2028. He’s at 35% now according to https://t.co/87D9Aqm2Fy but has flirted with 34% previously

[Adam Carlson @admcrlsn]

The biggest shifts from 2024 President ➡️ 2026 House in these districts:

1) Henry Cuellar (TX-28) — 90% Latino
🔴 Trump +10.4 ➔ 🔵 D+36.2

2) Bobby Pulido (TX-15) — 78% Latino
🔴 Trump +17.9 ➔ 🔵 D+24.6

3) Randy Villegas (CA-22) — 70% Latino
🔴 Trump +1.8 ➔ 🔵 D+36.2 (89% reporting)

4) Nellie Pou (NJ-09) — 39% Latino
🔴 Trump +1.1 ➔ 🔵 D+34.9

5) Leticia Gutierrez (TX-09) — 59% Latino
🔴 Trump +19.8 ➔ 🔵 D+15.2

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@adamtebrugge @loujacobson Sure. And we had a lot of company on that one.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Dem wave was wider and deeper than most know. Excellent job by @loujacobson for the Crystal Ball.

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @loujacobson on the scope of the Democrats' massive state legislative and downballot statewide successes last week: https://t.co/5BDiPY3ccw (new state leg. control pictured)

[Jonathan Martin @jmart]

TUPELO, Mississippi — The Friday before the election, I flew to Memphis and then drove to Tupelo, Mississippi, for an end-of-campaign rally. Bill Clinton, James Carville and Mitch Landrieu were all headed there in a show of neighboring state solidarity on behalf of Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom. There were a handful of local reporters perched in the balcony of an old church sanctuary turned event space, but I was the only person present from the national press corps.

Everyone there was acutely aware of how hard it would be to topple a Republican senator and elect a Black man in Mississippi. This was, yes, the state with the highest percentage of Black voters in the country. But it’s also a state with profound racial polarization in its voting patterns — whites mostly vote for Republicans and Blacks for Democrats.

There hadn’t been a Black senator here since Reconstruction. And Mississippi had not elected a Democratic senator since 1982, when an 81-year-old John Stennis defeated 34-year-old upstart Haley Barbour.

Until now.

Colom’s upset win, which was called just over a week after the election, marks perhaps the most unimaginable victory in a midterm that exceeded even the most optimistic Democratic expectations.

Colom, however, may have been the least surprised.

After Clinton and his Louisiana posse along with the rest of what had been a full house left that Friday night, I sat down with the 43-year-old local prosecutor in the old church pews. We spoke about convincing people to believe in his candidacy, why it’s so vital for Democrats to compete in the South and how he, much like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, was relying on the attention economy to win.

Oh, and we briefly stopped our interview when his two young daughters came over to tease their dad, pretending not to know if he was “daddy or uncle” because Colom’s identical twin brother looks even more like him after a recent hair cut.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity:

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

Can we say one more thing about the midterm elections? Before the turkey and stuffing and gravy, spend this afternoon with us at @Center4Politics digesting last week's elections. Not leftovers, but fresh new insights about the people and issues that are coming over the next two years & beyond. Today (Nov 12th) starting at 2pm ET. Free tickets in link below.

[Ron Pitts @RonLPitts]

@LarrySabato fun trivia. Colom has an identical twin, that means there are FOUR senators with identical twins. Kelly-AZ, Schatz-Hi, Murray-Wa

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@AdamMcQuade13 @loujacobson Welcome to modern politics, American style.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@CKLions Whatever god wants. Lower case god.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Trump’s repulsive arch will shadow the graves of many other veterans, too. Another monument to Trump’s humongous ego. https://t.co/INfkBiNjSN

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@micahddrew @kkondik @JMilesColeman @loujacobson

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@1sathyan Thanks but keep your powder dry!

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

I want a new doppelgänger.

[Jonathan @Swedensky]

Esteemed political analyst Larry Sabato changes his name and completely loses it. @LarrySabato

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@PaulaOtto141917 You would know!

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

On the eve of Veterans Day, I’m so sorry to learn a fine ex-Congressman, Bill Whitehurst, has died at age 101. A moderate Republican, he served my home district (Norfolk VA 2nd) from 1969-1987. A WWII combat veteran in the Pacific, Bill was so popular he could have been reelected indefinitely. He was a college professor who was a whip-smart TV commentator on international affairs, which helped him when he first ran in ‘68. R.I.P. https://t.co/1UEPhKeE47

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@ruggless1 @Center4Politics @loujacobson No, Mr. Jefferson did that. So by definition, you must be wrong. :)

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@shellie9 @Center4Politics @loujacobson Starting out with a big embarrassment.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

@Gr8TweetNTheSky @ruggless1 @Center4Politics @loujacobson We are all prisoners of the past. As Faulkner wrote, in the context of the South, “The past is never dead. It's not even past.”

[Louis Jacobson @loujacobson]

My latest for @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball @Center4Politics: Assessing the Scope of the Democrats’ State-Level Gains https://t.co/5HF7TNSQJY