Lars Baker

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@Osint613 yeah okay... he want to buy the Brooklun bridge too? great price for him!

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@sspencer_smb If the lemmings woke up, their money mgmt arm would collapse but chasing performance/fomo is the elixir of the lemmings.....

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

Got the live transcript. Here's what just came out of Musk's and CFO Taneja's mouths that would reverse the after-hours pop:
1. CapEx surprise — the big one. Taneja just guided 2026 capex to over $25 billion, well above the ~$20B the Street was working with. He explicitly added: "we will have the impact of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year." Tesla ended Q1 with just $1.4B in FCF. That's a material cash-burn story bulls weren't priced for.
2. Robotaxi/FSD revenue pushed out. Musk point-blank: "I don't think unsupervised Full Self-Driving or robotaxi revenue would be super material this year. But I do think it will be material…probably in a significant way next year." The entire AI-premium narrative was built on 2026 being the inflection year.
3. Unsupervised FSD to customer cars — "probably in the fourth quarter." That's later than the Street had baked in, and it will be rolled out geography-by-geography, not fleet-wide.
4. Hardware 3 officially abandoned. "Hardware 3 simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised Full Self-Driving… relative hardware only has one-eighth the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4." Tesla is offering HW3 owners "a discounted trade-in" and a paid computer+camera swap. That's a warranty/goodwill overhang and a hit to the ~1.3M FSD customer base.
5. Optimus reveal pushed. V3 unveil now "somewhere around the late July-August time frame" — and even then, Musk is "hesitant to show V3 off" because of competitor copying. On production rate: "I don't know what the production rate of Optimus will be this year. It is impossible to predict… I think it will be quite slow at first."
Offsetting positives (why it wasn't a full crash):

Auto gross margin ex-credits jumped from 17.9% to 19.2% (though with ~$230M one-time warranty benefit)
Highest Q1 order backlog in 2+ years
Giga Berlin hit record 61,000 units
Energy gross margin hit 39.5% (with $250M tariff benefit)
FSD paid subs up to 1.3M

The combination that's hitting the tape: >$25B capex + negative FCF all year + robotaxi revenue not material until 2027 + HW3 cars being orphaned. That's the one-two-three-four that converted a +3% beat into a selloff.

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@vixologist @greywaver @DavidCoxRJ 28 yr DWA user myself....

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@TheShortBear if you have a sub to sentiment trader you may be able to create one

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@AIStockSavvy $WWD not $WDF

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@mmonis looking at book map: why?

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@sspencer_smb maybe this had a small part.....

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@dailydirtnap pack the pc by accident?.......😂

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

14-Feb-24 07:06 ET
UBER
Uber provides 3-year outlook in Investor Day presentation slides; sees mid-to-high teens CAGR for gross bookings, high 30s% to 40% CAGR adjusted EBITDA growth, 90%+ free cash flow as percentage of adj EBITDA  (68.99)

let's not forget, there's always lady luck in trading to help. Uber initial pop was off wrong news and then we have the above from the am...

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@MissLowRisk thats a lot of MA's...bowl of spaghetti on the charts

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@Trade_The_News I will say that this sucks but I tried all the other services during this 2 day mess; TTN when running yesterday was superior even to newsquawk. TTN: WE EXPECT SOME BIG CREDITS!!

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@hmeisler Here’s another Oldy but goodie…

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@hmeisler Back at ya!

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@Trade_The_News all good but there better be some credits headed our way!

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@sspencer_smb nice april fools

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@dailydirtnap she's lovin your hair products......

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@hmeisler and even then: the 6:30 pm dead slot is now jammed! Every restaurant I see is booming...staffing still an issue but booming

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@TheShortBear The chart posted peaked my curiosity, so I went back and looked at delinquency rates for credit cards at top 100 banks vs the rest: check out the other non 100 banks...
https://t.co/WV2z14vGMf

[Lars Baker @Lars10583]

@RudyHavenstein @DonutShorts Just listen to the Odd Lots podcast….he lays out the whole scam