![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJK38QrXEAAGztr.jpg)
![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [macro]
Markets, especially BTC, moves from liquidity to liquidity. If price is moving it is either searching for a liquidity point or it is building/creating liquidity.
If you are able to identify how liquidity is building up, it becomes extremely simple to establish a correct HTF orderflow expectation (orderflow expectation = what is price most likely going to do next).
If price is deviating highs while building lows, price is taking out buyside liquidity while creating sellside liquidity. Operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from buyside- to sellside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bearish reversal
If price is deviating lows while building highs, price is taking out sellside liquidity while creating buyside liquidity. Again operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from sellside- to buyside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bullish reversal
It is incredibly simple and extremely effective.
Now take it a step further and combine it with actual systematic Wyckoff rules and you are getting closer to one of the most precise entry systems.... #TCT](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDmryE0W0AA1-9a.jpg)
Olivia
Online
Saro
@Lars_Ubben_
''Self-discipline starts with the mastery of your thoughts. If you don't control what you think, you can't control what you do.'' - Napoleon Hill
Netherlands
Joined September 2017
19 Following
37 Followers
18 Posts
@0xATV Yea white is sooo bright aha
@CryptoJelleNL What kind of DCA if I may ask, just daily or weekly buys automatically or limit orders?
$BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.
![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [HTF playbook]
I want to give you guys my in depth thoughts on the market, recapping what happened since the completion of our macro distribution playbook and talking about what I am personally expecting for BTC in the next 1-2 months and how I will be looking to trade it:
Introduction:
After BTC swept 74K, completing our macro distribution schematic, price flushed down aggressively all the way to 59K before starting it's retracement leg towards the upside.
That downwards expansion back in the beginning of Feb went lower than I initially anticipated and I believe it was an overreaction. Which is also the reason for price to deliver this current extended HTF retracement leg towards the upside --> to fully rebalance price before delivering the next expansion.
Swing structure is still bearish and based on the behavior of the current HTF pullback, price deviating highs and building a lot of lows (sellside liquidity), I am expecting this retracement leg to result in a HTF lower high with price takig out the low at 59K.
Current price action:
What is important to understand is that when BTC is ready to deliver a macro pivot --> this can be identified through aggressive price behavior:
A bearish pivot = aggressive sells creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the downside.
A bullish pivot = aggressive buys creating displacement, breaking key levels towards the upside.
No significant displacement breaking key levels = no macro bearish pivot.
Right now, BTC has mitigated our supply POI followed by a rejection back down from 83K --> 74K, but what is noticeable about the rejection leg?
It is a slow move down, creating buyside liquidity while deviating our red MS low. Or in other words:
No aggressive sells, creating displacement while breaking key levels and therefore a high chance of NOT being our macro bearish pivot.
My expectation for the next 1-2 months:
Due to this understanding of knowing what is needed in order for price to deliver a sustainable reversal I would like to see the following get created at current market prices:
A bullish rotation back up to new highs, confirming a higher TF distribution schematic that results in aggressive bearish displacement breaking key MS towards the downside.
In order to establish a higher TF range that can result into a distribution --> we can apply the advanced #TCT range concepts (explained in mentorship 2025) to pre-plan multiple trade ideas in between because we would need to get a rotation towards new highs first.
Best case scenario:
We short a local distribution schematic that creates the range high of our accumulation (first blue box), we long the accumulation schematic back up to new highs (second blue box), we short the deviation of our HTF distribution schematic for a swingshort (third and fourth blue box).
The blue boxes in the picture highlight the most optimal potential trading setups.
Advanced details:
I have seen a lot of 'normie' TA and believe that a new higher high will result in a lot of failed bearish retail patterns while 'confirming' a lot of bullish retail playbooks, therefore making it the perfect location to create a #TCT distribution schematic.
In combination with the White House pushing the clarity act before July 4th, seeing bullish expansions in June can validate a lot of retails expectations --> causing them to not be aware and pre-plan for the bearish reversal ahead.
Lastly, with BTC approaching the summer period and volume decreasing, if whales are properly positioned for downside (which we will be able to identify through our #TCT models), it will be extremely easy for them to kickstart an aggressive bearish reversal because a few heavier market sells will have more impact --> adding confluence to our thesis.
Conclusion:
I am expecting a HTF distribution to get created --> which means a bullish rotation back up towards 83K first --> followed by an aggressive bearish rotation towards the range lows.
Break that range low = 59K.
How steep the deviations are going to be towards the upside during the distribution process is up to the market makers and not something we have to predict.
I have one high probability POI at 86K that could get mitigated.
My drawing are not exact predictions, rather an overall idea of how price could somewhat move in the coming 1-2 months.
And remember, in the end we always trade confirmations --> not expectations.
I'm just giving you an idea in which framework we can be looking to trade the upcoming price action.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJK4gl4XsAA4eFd.jpg)
@Larskooistra_ Yessir
$BTC [macro]
Markets, especially BTC, moves from liquidity to liquidity. If price is moving it is either searching for a liquidity point or it is building/creating liquidity.
If you are able to identify how liquidity is building up, it becomes extremely simple to establish a correct HTF orderflow expectation (orderflow expectation = what is price most likely going to do next).
If price is deviating highs while building lows, price is taking out buyside liquidity while creating sellside liquidity. Operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from buyside- to sellside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bearish reversal
If price is deviating lows while building highs, price is taking out sellside liquidity while creating buyside liquidity. Again operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from sellside- to buyside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bullish reversal
It is incredibly simple and extremely effective.
Now take it a step further and combine it with actual systematic Wyckoff rules and you are getting closer to one of the most precise entry systems.... #TCT
![Larskooistra_'s tweet photo. $BTC [macro]
Markets, especially BTC, moves from liquidity to liquidity. If price is moving it is either searching for a liquidity point or it is building/creating liquidity.
If you are able to identify how liquidity is building up, it becomes extremely simple to establish a correct HTF orderflow expectation (orderflow expectation = what is price most likely going to do next).
If price is deviating highs while building lows, price is taking out buyside liquidity while creating sellside liquidity. Operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from buyside- to sellside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bearish reversal
If price is deviating lows while building highs, price is taking out sellside liquidity while creating buyside liquidity. Again operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from sellside- to buyside liquidity becomes the conclusion.
Therefore expectational orderflow = bullish reversal
It is incredibly simple and extremely effective.
Now take it a step further and combine it with actual systematic Wyckoff rules and you are getting closer to one of the most precise entry systems.... #TCT](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDmr0S4XYAAPAUy.jpg)
When you realize you can open swing trade ideas on extremely refined entries, get positioned before the crowd, and very quickly move into a risk-free position while still targeting way higher/lower… everything changes.
You start to understand what it means to operate from true confidence. Because when you’re wrong, you’re losing little to no money. And when you are right, you’re not just right… you’re right with size , you’re right early, and the market rewards you in a way spot never could.
Suddenly you see that you can be short, totally risk-free, and along the way take a long scalp if the market gives it, and then flip it again if needed. You realize you can be long with zero risk on the table, and still be positioned short at the same time, riding multiple RR setups that can pay you massively if they play out.
It becomes almost funny to look back at buying a 10k spot bag and being thrilled with a 50% move while being exposed the entire time. Especially in crypto where we just witnessed the largest liquidation event in history. Instead, you think: I can risk 1k, get a 1:5, make 5k. Do it again. Another 5k. Without praying for a massive percentage move, without being vulnerable to volatility and most importantly:
Without hoping the market treats you kindly.
Because now you’re operating from precision, not hope. From strategy, not emotion.
And the better you get, the more elite you become, you don’t exclude spot —> you combine both worlds.
But the reality is that when you learn to refine entries this deeply, manage risk at this level, and move into risk-free positions so fast that you’re trading from a genuinely carefree state of mind… there’s nothing else like it. The clarity, the control, the peace, the confidence, it’s something most traders never experience.
Once you taste that? You never go back.
@WyckoffChartist Exactly my trade, took a partial tho
After listening to multiple billionaires and talking to many succesfull individuals the past 4 days there has been one pattern that just kept on repeating.
A sentence that every single person had mentioned in their journey to incredible success:
All change starts with honesty.
The moment I heard it it immediately clicked.
Why?
Because it is THE exact reason for my current success and something I have struggled with for a long time.
The sentence sounds relatively simple but it is more complex than you might think and since I am in the plane on a 12 hour flight right now I would like to open up and tell you guys more about my journey related to this sentence.
When I started my trading journey at the age of 16 I was simply getting to know the markets just like anyone else. Trying different indicators, strategies and getting familiar with the execution platforms.
Any mistakes that you make in this era do not really take a mentall toll on you since you are just starting out and I was convinced that over time with more experience it will all get resolved.
Two years later and I am getting more comfortable with my edge and trading system but I am yet to see any actual compounded results
In the mean time I always felt like I was going to be remembered as the greatest trader to ever walk this earth. I truly lived and still live from the mentality that if someone else can make a 100 million trading the financial markets I can do it too and if nobody did it before I could be the first.
This delusion had it’s pros but it also started blinding me from the truth. Instead of humbling myself and facing the areas where I was weak, I used this dream as an excuse to hide behind. I convinced myself that my losses were temporary setbacks, that my discipline issues didn’t matter, that my risk management was “good enough” because one day I’d be the best.
But the reality was this: I wasn’t good enough yet. Not because I didn’t have potential, but because I wasn’t willing to face the brutal truth about myself. The truth that I was reckless. The truth that I avoided responsibility. The truth that I preferred comforting lies over painful honesty.
6 months further into my trading journey and I am still yet to see any acceleration. I was not losing money but I was also not making money. I would look at my trading performance and truly ask myself the question why I wasn’t where I wanted to be and I could not seem to find the answer.
Not because there was no answer but because subconsciously I was afraid to face my imperfections.
I started watching trading psychology videos and realized I had to properly start journalling my trades so the imperfections could directly look me in the eye, black and white on paper.
And guess what?
I STARTED TO LIE IN MY OWN JOURNAL.
You know how crazy that sounds now? Lying to no one but myself. No one was seeing my journal and still I lied. Imagine lying to the very place that was supposed to hold my rawest thoughts.
That’s how deep the denial went
It wasn’t until I was absolutely sick of losing financially, emotionally, mentally, that I decided enough was enough. I had to strip away the delusion and look my imperfection directly in the eyes. That’s when things started to shift. That’s when I realized that success doesn’t solely come from pretending you’re already great —> it comes from having the courage to admit you’re not there yet, and then putting in the relentless work to close that gap.
3 months later I made my first $10.000 in a month, 12 months later I made my first $100.000 in a week, 24 months later and I am seven figures deep into profits
That’s how fast it went.
What changed?
I started being honest.
🐳
If you're a hardcore gamer, switch to trading. Same grind and dedication...but with a chance to become a millionaire instead of just earning some cool gear or skins.
The grind is real my fren
@Wyckoff_Insider ''Self-discipline starts with the mastery of your thoughts. If you don't control what you think, you can't control what you do.'' - Napoleon Hill
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