Marius Laurinavicius

An independent analyst. International relations with the focus on Russia and China

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

Let’s be clear:

1) without actual ceasefire any peace talks would be meaningless as they would enable russia to continue war against #Ukraine as long as it wishes whilst imitating talks and stalling sanctions;

2) the so called “primary causes” of russia’s war against Ukraine are best described by Putin himself as he repeated in #Alaska his demand “to reinstate a just balance of security in Europe and in the world on the whole” - which means "What's mine is mine, and what's yours is mine".

3) legitimizing occupation is a direct invitation for the aggressor to continue.

We DO remember the last time there was “a just balance of security” according to russia, in Europe & globally. My family remembers. My husband’s family remembers. Half the ministers families in our region remember.

[Germany at NATO @GermanyNATO]

General Carsten Breuer, German Chief of Defence: Two years ago today, Defence Minister #Pistorius decided that a 🇩🇪 brigade should be permanently stationed in 🇱🇹. Great progress has been made since then. 1/2

[Bertas Venckaitis @BVenckaitis]

1 May, 1941: Allies Soviets and Nazis marching together in Moscow following their dark deal Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

[Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder]

This is how Kaganovich talked about Stalin.

[Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 @Lithuanian_MoD]

This evening, near the @USEmbVilnius, Lithuanian people honor the American soldiers who tragically lost their lives in Pabradė: the area is covered with candles and flowers. The tragic incident has shaken us all to the depths of our hearts. These soldiers will never be forgotten.

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

Search&rescue of missing soldiers is ongoing.

Our armed forces & rescue services are working around the clock.

This accident is incredibly difficult&painful for us. Our hearts are with the soldiers, their families&friends.

Thank you to the US Ambassador Kara C. McDonald @USEmbVilnius for standing with us. While the rescue efforts continue, we stand with the US troops.

Our bond remains strong even in the hardest times.

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

After suffering 2 occupations by russia - Russian Empire 1795-1918 & Soviet Russia 1940-1990 - Lithuanians 🇱🇹 remain wary of any negotiations with putin and are watching kremlin closely.

The only diplomacy that works with russia is with a gun on the table.

My interview at the Lithuanian Embassy in D.C.🇺🇸 last Friday for @FoxNews @LucasFoxNews

https://t.co/4rtvcxsjGY

[Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 @Lithuanian_MoD]

🇱🇹DefMin @DSakaliene tells @FoxNews: Only way to negotiate with Russia is with a 'gun on the table'

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

Less talk, more action. We stand with Ukraine and our allies. We need a united Europe.

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

Had a call with 🇺🇦 @andrii_sybiha to reaffirm Lithuania’s long-term support and commitment to achieving a just& lasting peace in #Ukraine.

Russian aggression must be stopped. The aggressor must be held accountable.

🇱🇹🇺🇦

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

Ukraine’s security is Europe’s security.

Mobilising all political, diplomatic, financial and military support for #Ukraine is Europe’s key task.

Lithuania’s commitment to help Ukraine achieve long-lasting peace is unwavering. 🇱🇹🇺🇦

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

Continued & lasting support to Ukraine. This is our pledge.
Europe must step up.
It’s about us all.

[Gitanas Nausėda @GitanasNauseda]

Ukraine, you'll never walk alone.

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

11 years of illegal Russian occupation, but the facts remain unchanged – Crimea is #Ukraine!

Крим — це Україна! 🇺🇦

#CrimeaIsUkraine

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

The aggressor must not gain anything from the aggression they initiated. The crime of aggression must not be rewarded.

It's clear that Putin is not interested in peace, maybe in some ceasefire that would allow him to regenerate his forces and strike again.

#StandWithUkraine️

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

🧵1/5 It’s time for Europe to decide who’s shaping our future – Russia or ourselves.
Russia keeps pushing its demands& for decades the West has barely questioned them, meekly drawing red lines& accepting Russia’s version of reality.
Years of inaction have led us to this point – Putin, the war criminal, dictating the future of Ukraine& Europe. A weak, divided Europe& defeated #Ukraine is exactly what he wants.
So, the real question is: will we accept this fate chosen by Putin, or will we take control and create our own future?

[Kęstutis Budrys @BudrysKestutis]

🧵1/7 The week between Munich and Kyiv is crucial for Europe. It will conclude with the commemoration of the third anniversary of the war in Kyiv, Brussels, New York& all capitals supporting #Ukraine. However, the tone will be determined by what we accomplish in the coming days. Let’s not indulge in speculation about the US-Russia meeting in Riyadh. What truly matters is what we do here in Europe.

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

🇷🇺 is rearming faster than ever, it produces&spends more on its military industry than all of #Europe combined. Do you really believe all of this is just for #Ukraine?

�� Over the past 3 decades, russia has launched at least 7 invasions&every time, it was rewarded. War after war, invasion after invasion.

🌍 Europe must be stronger – we need to increase our defence production now, not wait until war comes to us!

💡 I emphasized this at #MunichSecurityConference, discussing the 🇱🇹 🇩🇪 defence partnership&investments in Ukraine’s defence industry.

#EuropeMustWakeUp #Security #Defense 💪🇱🇹🇪🇺

@Der_BDI #3VBW
📷Stefan Obermeier

[Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 @GLandsbergis]

Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.
This is what we now know, and what we now have to do about it:🧵1/17

[Dovilė Šakalienė @DSakaliene]

Proud to represent my President in the NB8 meeting tonight in Munich Security Conference.

Despite all the pressure & rapidly changing geopolitical circumstances Baltic & Nordic countries send a clear message:

We will not abandon Ukraine
We will invest in defence
We will stand strong together

#StrongerTogether #NB8
🇱🇹 🇱🇻 🇪🇪 🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇮🇸