Layer of Thoughts

From crypto to TradFi.
Writing about pre-IPO deals, secondaries, private equity, and liquidity.

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

For a long time, this account focused on classic CT content and crypto culture. But recently, my interests have shifted toward the deeper financial mechanisms of markets - TradFi, private equity, and how large players position themselves before assets go public.

There is a massive, rarely discussed ecosystem around private capital that I want to explore. Going forward, while I’ll still share occasional market thoughts, this page will shift toward higher-signal, educational content:
- Pre-IPO opportunities
- Secondary market mechanics
- Private capital & liquidity narratives
- Valuation analysis
- TradFi infrastructure
- Institutional market trends

The goal is simple: less noise, more value.

Welcome to Layer of Thoughts

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

Cerebras Systems shows several sides of private market investing in one case study:
→ Outsized multiples for early backers - but 7-10 years of waiting
→ A down round in 2024, followed by ~33x repricing in 18 months
→ The product, business model, and client base all changed - but the core thesis didn’t.

The original 2016 bet: the world will need more AI compute, and GPUs aren't the only way to deliver it.
10 years, multiple pivots, one near-death IPO experience, and the original bet held.

Let's revisit this at the end of the year and calculate how much real - not paper - profit the early investors actually secured.

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

IPO of Cerebras Systems 👀

Yesterday, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) debuted on Nasdaq. The IPO was priced at $185, trading opened at $350, and the session closed at $311 - valuing the company at $​95B.
Cerebras delivered the largest US tech IPO since Uber in 2019, and one of the strongest first-day performances in years, finishing +68% above the IPO price.

That's a strong return for IPO allocants, but the real story isn't day one. It's what happened over the previous 10 years. Let's break down the funding rounds, valuations, and what early investors actually got.
Cerebras Systems closed its Series A in May 2016 at $0.85 per share. The thesis: build a specialized AI chip that could compete with NVIDIA GPU clusters.

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

A note on the lock-up: all pre-IPO investors are subject to a lock-up ending on the earlier of two events:
- the trading day following publication of FY2026 annual results
- 180 days after IPO

That means the next major liquidity event - and potential supply pressure on the stock - comes around November 2026. Paper gains aren't realized gains until then.

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@conveylp @MuDigitalHQ Good to see Monad incentives used this way

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

This is what structured liquidity looks like

[Convey @conveylp]

#Monad is distributing nearly $100k in daily rewards, so we couldn’t help but share some of the most profitable strategies.

1. We’re happy to be early birds in @MuDigitalHQ and receive a nice bonus from the pre-deposit phase. But that’s not all, there’s a way to further maximize returns on $AZND and $muBOND.

Lend $AZND and $muBOND on @TownSquarexyz to earn an additional ~15% APR and ~20% APR respectively.

2. $MON holders can stake their tokens with @0xFastLane to receive $shMON at ~12% APY. The obtained $shMON can then be added to @CurveFinance for up to ~27% APY.

Rewards are also claimable daily on @merkl_xyz.
Happy yield printing!

All links are in the comments below 👇

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@WizzyOnChain Good night Wizzy 😴

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@banditxbt Soon $100k?

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@WatcherGuru Is this just the beginning?

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@OndoFinance Trend for 2026?

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@cryptunez I hope it will be in the top 5

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@Kalshi Nice try

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@cryptunez Hmm... And I almost believed it

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@erequendi We're back in business

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@brewmarkets We've been waiting for this

[Layer of Thoughts @LayerofThought]

@IcedKnife Meme coins have been trending recently. What about NFTs?