Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data

💸 Dans les coulisses des Grands Parieurs Internationaux (GPI/CAW).
🤖 Comment la Data et les algorithmes ont soumis le pari mutuel.
📁 Storytelling

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

Aujourd'hui encore, les plus grands syndicats de parieurs internationaux (les fameux CAW / Grands Parieurs Internationaux) s'appuient sur les fondations théoriques posées par Alan Woods pour brasser des milliards dans l'ombre.

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

🧵 Du comptage de cartes à Las Vegas à un empire de 500 MILLIONS de dollars bâti à Manille : l'histoire d'Alan Woods, le parieur le plus impitoyable de la planète. 👇

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

Alan Woods s'éteint en 2008 des suites d'une maladie.
Mais la fin de sa vie ne marque pas la fin de sa technologie.

[Aster @Aster_x0]

A man spent eleven years betting on horse races in Hong Kong and his profit chart came out too steep to fit on a page. He had to redraw the whole thing on a logarithmic scale before he could show it to anyone.

The man is Bill Benter. He explained the method once, in 2004, at a mathematics congress in Hong Kong, and somebody put the tape online eleven years later.

Bill Benter: "I've included this graph just because I'm proud of it."

"This is the actual record of betting using the aforementioned horse racing system."

"A consecutive series of about six thousand races, which was about eleven years of Hong Kong racing."

"The y axis on this graph is actually a logarithmic scale."

"Because the actual profit chart from using this system was very, very steep."

"So to make it fit on a particular page we had to use a logarithmic graph."

"Something I'm proud of."

The word cumulative is misspelled on the slide he is proud of.

Then a man in the audience asks whether any of this works on the stock market.

Bill Benter: "Yes. As a matter of fact I think horse racing is probably the closest analogy."

"You would have some model that would predict the future share price based on some past data, in the same way that you would predict a race horse's performance."

"But horse racing is a particularly good field for applying this type of modeling."

"Because in the stock market you often have unique situations occurring."

"Whereas horse racing is very stable, and you've got the same sort of event occurring thousands of times."

"Which makes it very much amenable to modeling and statistical analysis."

He is not saying the market is more sophisticated than a racetrack. He is saying it is worse. It never repeats itself often enough for anyone to learn it.

You have been trading a game with no sample size.

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

Demain, je vous raconte la folle histoire d'Alan Woods : le mathématicien devenu parieur le plus impitoyable de l'histoire, et l'algorithme secret que des syndicats utilisent ENCORE aujourd'hui !

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

11/11 Si tu veux découvrir les coulisses confidentielles de ces parieurs milliardaires qui opèrent dans l'ombre : 1. Reposte ce premier thread 🔄
2. Suis @LeParieurSecret pour ne rien rater des prochains dossiers.

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

1/11 🧵 Comment un informaticien a été BANNI de l'hippodrome de Hong Kong après avoir braqué le système avec 150 lignes de code.

C'est l'histoire de Bill Benter, le parieur le plus redouté de la planète. 👇

[Le Parieur Secret | GPI/CAW & Data @LeParieurSecret]

10/11 Aujourd'hui, le Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) représente une part majeure du marché mondial. Benter a prouvé que face à la Data, le hasard n'existe pas dans le pari mutuel.