One of the biggest problems I hear from people right now is not knowing where to put their cash profits.
I know not everyone is as fortunate to be in this position.
However, if you do find yourself in a profitable position after taking profits in Bitcoin, crypto, silver, gold and tech stocks over the last few months, try sitting with the profits for a moment and watch the markets for a genuine opportunity.
I know this sounds like we're losing to inflation. But sometimes the money is made in the sitting.
As Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, the markets are a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
“There’s always a bull market somewhere”
That bull market might be starting in DXY for a while, probably one of the most hated things right now.
I think it would be wise to have some cash ready for some good buys on risk assets late Q3/early Q4
With metals dropping, stocks likely follow.
Btc in a typical 4 year cycle bear market too.
Dare I say it, are we going back to “cash is king?”
The Global hawkish turn
A few days ago, the Bank of Japan has stated that it might be open to rate hikes in the next months. It is the first major central bank that has openly talked about pausing their easing cycle or even exiting it fully. Remember, asset markets have been thriving for the past three years because global central banks have been cutting interest rates and increasing money supply.
We are now seeing early signals of this cycle coming to an end, although it will likely not be in full effect until next year. Nevertheless, markets are efficient in frontrunning major macro developments, which is a key factor to why crypto has been lagging lately. Apart from Japan, investors have started to expect that other central banks may follow, including the ECB, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia which may shift to rate hikes next year as well to manage rising inflation that is a result of all the easing that has happened in recent years.
This has led to bond yields pushing higher in these areas. On the other hand, the US FED is still easing and expected to cut interest rates at least one more time after today. It is possible that we will see a divergence by the FED and other central banks next year. If the FED sticks to its easing cycles, especially with the new FED chair coming into power, we can expect the dollar to continue showing relative weakness as investors prefer fiat currencies of economies that are increasing rates.
Nevertheless, a decline of the dollar will not necessarily mean that crypto markets will thrive as the liquidity dynamics globally change for the worse. As of now, crypto has benefited greatly from the collective global easing cycle. While the US market is still the largest, if other central banks hike, a considerable amount of that liquidity will now be taken off markets.
This is another factor why today's FOMC meeting matters to investors. If the FED turns hawkish as well towards more rate cuts in 2026, the dollar will thrive against global currencies, at the cost of more speculative asset markets. If it is dovish, while other central banks turn hawkish next year, the dollar will decline, while US markets can maintain their strength as a hedge against the dollar.
This makes other fiat currencies more attractive as well. Nevertheless, both scenarios would not be as supportive for speculative markets like crypto as less capital is expected to be around the market, different from the macro environment in the past three years where you had a comprehensive easing cycle across all global central banks. We will further update on this matter after today's FOMC meeting. This could be the news that can follow the TA we have discussed in recent weeks.
Image source: @FT
@KrownCryptoCave So if the market is down after the first 5 days after cuts, there’s a decent chance it continues down for 90 days (& vice versa) but market likely will bounce from there regardless as long as we don’t get ‘01 or ‘07 style recession
We got the bull run we deserved this cycle. With all the mind boggling moronic bullshit coins, memes and NFTs from last cycle, the maxis finally got their day. Good game and fuck u