๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ ๐๐ก ๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ง๐๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ก
El whitepaper fue creado el 31 de octubre de 2008 por una entidad que todos conocemos, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Este documento se divide en 12 puntos que explican la idea, y como ejecutarla .
Veamos cada uno
๐งต ๐
61% ROI on a Bitcoin market on Polymarket
Direction doesn't matter - up, down, or sideways
This is delta-neutral trading, and here's exactly how it works
What is delta-neutral strategy?
The core idea: earn when price doesn't move much and stays in a sideways range. Time does the work - the longer price sits still, the more the position grows toward 100ยข.
If price starts moving aggressively up or down - just exit at breakeven using a hedge. No big losses, no guessing direction.
1. Market: Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 in March?
Current BTC price: $73,720
Buy No at 62ยข - market gives only 38% chance BTC touches $80k
$100 invested โ 161.3 shares of No If BTC never touches $80k โ No goes to 100ยข โ +$61.3 (+61%)
2. The hedge
If BTC starts pumping toward $80k - No will drop to ~50ยข around $75,000
Loss on position at that point: โ$21.9
Opening a long hedge on BTC. Size is calculated using the exchange calculator - set so that profit on the long from $73,720 to $75,000 equals exactly $19.4
BTC reaches $75k โ loss on Polymarket โ$21.9, profit on hedge +$21.9 โ breakeven
3. Stops
> Stop on position: No โค 50ยข (BTC ~$75,000)
> Close both parts simultaneously
> Exit at zero
> Stop on hedge: BTC drops to ~$68,500
> Hedge loses max $61.3
> Position already gave +$61.3 โ exit at zero
4. Scenarios
BTC sideways ($68,500 โ $75,000). Time decay works in full. Position grows toward 100ยข on its own. Result: up to +61%
BTC pumps to $75,000. No drops to ~50ยข โ close the position. Hedge profit covers the loss. Result: breakeven
BTC dumps to $68,500. Position flies toward 100ยข โ close the hedge. Stake covers the hedge loss. Result: breakeven
5. The full construction
> Buy No $80k at 62ยข on $100
> Open long hedge on BTC via exchange calculator
> Profit zone: $68,500 โ $75,000
> Outside this range - stops keep everything at zero
Profit or breakeven. That's the whole idea
@Rideforjacky_ Risk of rain 2.
- Jugar solo cuando esta nublado, con probabilidad de lluvias.
- Si tenes alguien que te haga la segunda suma +1000
Te come 1 findesemana entero sin drama.