LeanTossup

Best Forecast: Canada 2019/2021 and UK 2019| Facebook:

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

The Leantossup model was the most accurate forecast for the 2019 Canadian Federal Election. #cdnpoli https://t.co/semxNbC3aC

[Robert Martin @RobertMartin826]

We're back for another year!

In this podcast we talked about some offseason coaching changes.

Two huge episodes coming Thursday and next Monday, as we talk about the Protect College Sports Act, NCAAF Coaching tiers, and a new coaching stat for Head Coaches and co-ordinators!

[GoldenSand 🌳 @GoldenSand_]

I want to congratulate @LeanTossup for the magnificent job they've done on their website. Honestly, this is one of the best election night simulators out there, and one with the best aesthetics!

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

Check it out! https://t.co/hnehtwGCc2

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

New MASSIVE new update to the new LeanTossup website: US Election Atlas, and an update to the UK Election Atlas:

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

This feature also exists for the UK Atlas as well!

Picking a random shift is fun, as you see the full results and try to figure out if the result is going to be the same as the historical election night will be or not!

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

@QuokkaFan @CanadianPolling I couldn't find a shapefile for it. I will keep looking for it. If I can find it I will add it!

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

It's Election Day in the UK!

To celebrate LeanTossup is relaunching with a brand new website and a new project!

An Atlas of all UK General Elections, going back to 1918!

Fully zoomable, click on a region to see the constituency results! https://t.co/hnehtwHa1A

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

It's Election Day in the UK!

To celebrate LeanTossup is relaunching with a brand new website and a new project!

An Atlas of all UK General Elections, going back to 1918!

Fully zoomable, click on a region to see the constituency results! https://t.co/hnehtwHa1A

[Old Northern Curio @northerncurio]

Imagine the 1931 general election campaign in Ramsay MacDonald's constituency of Seaham, County Durham.
"Who you voting for then: National Labour, Labour Party, or Communist?"

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

As the UK Election winds down, we're confident that when the dust fully settles tomorrow, we will be one of, if not the most accurate, UK Model again, replicating our 2019 performance

Thank you to all of our followers! On to 2029!

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

We had always doubted the MRPs showing the Tories under 100 seats, but were always firm in the Labour Majority call.

Now let's sit back and see the results

[Polling UK @UK_Polling]

Now we get to see how close or far the model gets to the actual results :^)

[Polling UK @UK_Polling]

Now we get to see how close or far the model gets to the actual results :^)

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

We are not projecting the Tories to do well, we are projecting them to do even worse than Corbyn 5 years ago, but we do expect them to hold in some rural seats, staying about 100 seats, and Labour not doing amazing in those seats as well

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

Our final projection for the 2024 UK Election:

LABOUR MAJORITY

We mostly agree with the MRPs, however we see the Tories holding more seats than they do, especially in the North, London and the Midlands.

A quick thread about why we think this:

[Polling UK @UK_Polling]

Final @LeanTossup UK Model

LAB: 387 (+185)
CON: 156 (-209)
LDM: 63 (+52)
SNP: 17 (-31)
GRN: 2 (+1)
RFM: 1 (+1)

Others: 24

(Seat Change With 2019 Election)

Full Map Here: https://t.co/nyd8i7fe51

#GE2024 #UKGeneralElection2024

[LeanTossup @LeanTossup]

The MRPs seem to mostly be following proportional swing, saying that the Tories should be down more in their best seats, and losing less ground in the swing seats. This is fundamentally different from any election I have ever seen, and would completely re-write the UK map

[Polling UK @UK_Polling]

Final @LeanTossup UK Model

LAB: 387 (+185)
CON: 156 (-209)
LDM: 63 (+52)
SNP: 17 (-31)
GRN: 2 (+1)
RFM: 1 (+1)

Others: 24

(Seat Change With 2019 Election)

Full Map Here: https://t.co/nyd8i7fe51

#GE2024 #UKGeneralElection2024

[Polling UK @UK_Polling]

Updated @LeanTossup UK Model Seats:

LAB: 414 (+212)
CON: 159 (-206)
LDM: 36 (+25)
SNP: 17 (-31)

Others: 24

(Seat Change With 2019 Election)

- June 13, 2024 -

Model: https://t.co/nyd8i7fe51

#GE2024 #UKGeneralElection2024