i have a buddy who ran up $1K to $200K during covid, blew his port twice since then. he's now up $2.7M trading stocks in the last 3-6 months. i've talked to people recently who don't know what a market cap is or do any research about stocks they buy and just use AI to pick stocks to trade for them and they're up 100% on their portfolio this year.
dumb money is coming to crypto soon and the last time this happened it lead to dogecoin hitting $88 billion+ market cap.
be on the lookout for substantially higher ceilings for memecoins once again and bitcoin starting to rally as people take profits from stocks and rotate. screenshot this because i know i'm right on this one
a russian mathematician solved trading in 1906
wall street found the paper 70 years later, built billion-dollar funds around it, never mentioned it to retail
andrei markov proved markets aren't random - they're state machines
trending, ranging, reversing - each state has a fixed historical probability of shifting to the next
build a transition matrix from real data:
trending -> stays trending: 68%
trending -> flips to range: 21%
trending -> reverses: 11%
now you're not predicting direction. you're entering on 68% historical completion
identify your state, size with kelly, take the trade when math says yes
that's the edge. the whole edge
renaissance has run this since 1988. 37 years of 66% annual returns
paper is free, data is free, implementation is 200 lines of python
Bookmark and use in your own strategy
they kept you staring at candles while they ran probability tables
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J'ai tradé du capital institutionnel pendant 1 an.
Ce que j'ai appris est totalement différent de ce que je vois en trading crypto depuis des années.
En salle, on ne prédisait jamais. On structurait des asymétries.
Voici comment :
En Forex institutionnel, personne ne disait "je pense que l'EUR va monter".
On disait : "Mon client a une expo de 50M EUR/USD. Comment on neutralise ça ?"
On utilisait 3 outils :
- Forwards (figer un prix)
- Collars (protection gratuite)
- Options vanille (asymétries)
Le forward, c'est simple : tu fixes un prix à l'avance.
En crypto, l'équivalent c'est shorter un perp pour neutraliser ton spot.
Long BTC à 85k, tu veux zéro volatilité avant un evenement potentiellement baissier ?
Short 1 BTC perp à 85k.
Ton P&L devient flat et tu déboucles après l'event.
Le collar, c'est une protection quasi-gratuite.
Tu achètes un put (protection baisse).
Tu vends un call (finance le put).
Coût net : 0.
Ton gain est cappé, ta perte aussi.
En crypto ca serait la combinaison en bear market quand tu veux juste dormir tranquille.
Mais l'outil le plus puissant, c'etait les options vanille.
Parce qu'elles te permettent de transformer un risque illimité sur les marchés en risque borné.
Exemple concret avec un protective put :
Tu es long BTC à 85k.
Tu achètes un put (option de vente) strike 75k, expiry 30 jours, pour 2k (environ 2-3% de ton capital).
Résultat :
BTC monte à 100k → tu participes à 100% de la hausse (moins les 2k)
BTC dump à 60k → ta perte max est -12k (10k de baisse + 2k de premium)
Ce que ça change :
Sans le put, une chute à 60k = -25k de perte.
Avec le put, même scénario = -12k max.
Tu viens de diviser ton risque par 2 pour 2% de coût.
C'est exactement ce qu'on faisait pour les clients en salle mais pour du FX avec des plus grosses sommes.
Eux ne voulaient pas jouer au casino. Dans une moindre mesure quand tu commences à accumuler du capital, toi non plus.
En crypto, 90% des traders jouent avec 100% de leur capital exposé.
Pas de hedge. Pas de structure. Juste "j'espère que ça monte".
Les institutionnels ne tradent jamais comme ça.
Le vrai edge, c'est pas de prédire mieux.
C'est de structurer ton risque pour survivre quand tu te trompes.
You can call it a conspiracy, but...
From 2017 high to 2021 high: 1430 days
From 2021 high to 2025 high: 1431 days
From 2017 high to bottom: 365 days
From 2021 high to bottom: 365 days
New cycle bottom: in 205 days
New cycle high: in 1276 days
Whether you like it or not, we still follow the $BTC 4-year cycle
THIS IS CRAZY!!!
Bitcoin is up 9.2% since Terra filed a lawsuit against Jane Street for market manipulation .
Not only that, but the daily “10 a.m. slam" has also stopped, and now $BTC is rallying alongside the stock market.
One thing about life is that you have to find not only your own happiness but your own peace. Things and people might be able to make you happy but nothing can give you true peace.
Find something to grind
Become the best at it
And never stop pushing for more
After you do all this you will get to the point where you’ve not only found happiness but you also found peace.