Lee Hardman

Currency Analyst at @MUFGEMEA, G10 & EMEA FX

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

The US dollar has weakened this week in response to the reduced fears over the aggressiveness of President Trump’s tariff plans. So we are unconvinced that this leg lower for the US dollar will be sustained and view this as just a lightening of USD longs.

https://t.co/OWBMYGeoXg

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

The yen is the top performing G10 currency this week in part on the drop in US yields after the weaker CPI data but also due to the increased anticipation of a rate hike by the BoJ next Friday.

https://t.co/6Vo5zE42OL

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

The last payrolls report covering 2024 was released this afternoon and we now know that the US labour market closed out the year with a strong gain in jobs. The report has given the US dollar further impetus with gains versus most of the rest of G10.

https://t.co/o5Xu9YqqdL

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

What lies ahead for the FX market in 2025?
We expect further USD strength during the 1H of this year taking EUR/USD back below parity. Our annual outlook report also includes themes to watch out for this year.

https://t.co/wUw51YxX3e

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

USD gains across G10 as policy divergence drives FX. SNB cuts, BoJ rate hike hopes fade. FOMC poised for another 25bps cut, cautious Powell may lower dot projections. 📈💱 #Forex #USD #GlobalEconomy

https://t.co/skSlZAPmYy

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

G10 FX Outlook 2025: Trump's policies reshape the market with tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. Expect USD strength, emerging market challenges, and a complex economic landscape. 📈 #Forex #Economy #Trump2025

https://t.co/CICP38Wr5r

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

BoJ to hike or not to hike?
#JPY #USD #BoJ

https://t.co/MdGJhuI40u

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

Assessing the FX impact from Trump’s opening salvo of tariff threats #CAD #CNY #MXN #TrumpTariffs

FX Focus https://t.co/ywXxG0Z4GD

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

Stars aligning for an even stronger USD.

The USD has regained upward momentum at the end of this week lifting the dollar index back to its highest levels since autumn 2022 which was at the peak of the negative energy price shock.

FX Weekly https://t.co/fl9ZVcoYsL

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

MUFG's latest FX Week Ahead Podcast dives into Trump's re-election impact on global markets, potential tariff hikes, and the Fed's rate cuts. 📉🌏 #Forex #Trump #Fed

https://t.co/eh1GzrMSJp.

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

FX Weekly https://t.co/4VRS511jGo

USD/JPY has entered a ‘danger zone’ of increased threat of intervention between 155-160. On Monday Governor Ueda will give a key speech which could signal increased intent on hiking rates to help stem yen selling.

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

Following Trump's election win, the US dollar is forecasted to strengthen significantly, peaking in 1H 2025 due to aggressive tariffs and fiscal policies. 📈💵 #Forex #USElection #USDollar

https://t.co/ure62GwcnI

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

@EdConwaySky It fell by -1.3% in early October & -1.5% in early August over equivalent 3-day periods.

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

Fed leads the way in pivoting towards rate cuts

- USD: Fed pivots towards cutting rates weighing heavily on the USD
- EUR/GBP: Will BoE & ECB follow the Fed by providing dovish policy updates?

https://t.co/yT92bQpBSJ

[Lee Hardman @LeeHardman6]

G10 FX Outlook 2024
- Limited scope initially for USD weakness
- Weak growth and a faster drop in inflation & ECB rate cuts to weigh on EUR
- JPY to outperform notably as BoJ acts
- Sticky inflation in UK means slower BoE easing but GBP strength to fade

https://t.co/saDK6oFaGx

[MUFG EMEA @MUFGEMEA]

In the latest FX Week Ahead #Podcast, @LeeHardman6, Senior Currency Analyst, discusses the fallout from last week’s BoJ policy update for the JPY and wider financial markets. Does the BoJ’s update alter MUFG’S bullish outlook for the JPY? Listen now: https://t.co/6PqviOzOT9

[MUFG EMEA @MUFGEMEA]

In the latest #podcast, @LeeHardman6 discusses how the busy economic calendar in the week ahead could prove pivotal for #FX market performance through the rest of this year. Will the US CPI report and FOMC meetings shake up #FinancialMarkets? https://t.co/O0Ywd4usDt

[MUFG EMEA @MUFGEMEA]

In the new Global Markets #podcast, @LeeHardman6 discusses #USD’s latest sell-off ahead of a keynote speech from #Fed Chair Powell. Will the return of COVID risks in China provide support for USD? Listen here: https://t.co/NniKxXHqBT

[MUFG EMEA @MUFGEMEA]

@LeeHardman6 analyses the future prospects for GBP with recent actions by the BoE and UK Government.

Lee also gives his view on the performance of the US Dollar.
Will positive news from China aid the dollar going forward?
Find out in the latest video: https://t.co/J1pziAhfHk

[MUFG EMEA @MUFGEMEA]

A major policy U-turn is underway in the UK and levels of volatility are high. Has Liz Truss done enough to restore confidence and is Jeremy Hunt a wise choice as Chancellor?

@derekhalpenny outlines what this might mean for the UK markets: https://t.co/ytulHcQXME #markets