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@GrainShark Fair enough. Should have learned by now to avoid "never" and "always".
And didn't mean to imply it goes straight down without any bounces along the way.
And 2010, 2012, and 2021 were dramatic crop events. Nothing in 2026 shaping up like that (yet).
I'm always amused at this time of year, when people think the wheat market is falling apart.
But it's just doing what it always does in summer.
Plan around it.
Shared this chart with our special crops subscribers yesterday.
Indian Meteorology Department has been more reliable with monsoon forecast the last few years. Haven't seen a 90% of LTA forecast in at least 20 years.
Even if it's off by a couple of percent...
Some welcome rain in dry parts of the western prairies. Some welcome dryness in the wet parts that are trying to finish planting. Would welcome more in the east, especially after last week's heat.
Chuck Penner expects a better outlook for pea demand in 2026-27. While not all restrictions have gone away, prospects are looking brighter & should mean better movement & prices, he stated in the latest Pulse Market Insight https://t.co/dBvWgndNwi #westcdnag@leftfieldcr
Important to recognize, wet conditions and planting delays are a regional issue in western Canada.
Now, with 30-35 degree temperatures, dryness becoming a concern elsewhere.
@brian_perillat Not as long as I can remember. But Chinese imports have been growing at an impressive rate. Mostly Aussie with some Russian.
FYI, we calculate FOB Vcr oats at US$230-235 currently.
Wouldn't it be great if Mr. Carney could use his friendly relations with China to open its doors to Cdn oats.
Another large (and growing) buyer would help diversify demand.
How many EVs would it take?
@brian_perillat Not sure about ocean freight on a fluffy crop like oats. Trade data shows Aussie oats at US$280/t in Apr, but not sure if that's FOB or CNF.
Problem is it's just theoretical. China has barred Cdn oats other than "planting seed", which amounts to about 1,000 tonnes per month.