HE IS TERRIBLE. 💩
Miles Mikolas O 1.5 BB +106 (Caesars)
We have basically faded Mikolas to do bad all year and are 3/3 on it so far.
4/5 LHP they’ve faced this year have walked 2 or more batters. Mikolas won’t be any exception to this.
He’s over this in 2/3 starts. He had 3 walks in just 55 pitches against the Cards. The Pirates walk at an 11% vs LHP. Great rate.
NRFI POTD 🍀
Red Sox/Twins NRFI -130 (Fanatics)
Sonny Gray NRFI record, 24-8. Mick Abel NRFI record 8-1. Huge advantage for the NRFI.
Offensively the two teams bat at an ≈80% NRFI rate. Another huge driving point for us.
We also get a slightly pitcher friendly stadium, plus it’s a little chilly there so the balls won’t travel as well.
HE IS TERRIBLE. 💩
Miles Mikolas O 1.5 BB +106 (Caesars)
We have basically faded Mikolas to do bad all year and are 3/3 on it so far.
4/5 LHP they’ve faced this year have walked 2 or more batters. Mikolas won’t be any exception to this.
He’s over this in 2/3 starts. He had 3 walks in just 55 pitches against the Cards. The Pirates walk at an 11% vs LHP. Great rate.
THIS MATCHUP IS TOO GOOD ⚡️
Framber Valdez O 4.5 Ks -135 (HardRock)
Valdez is over in 2/3 games to start the year. He HAS NEVER went under this line against the Royals.
The Royals K rate vs LHP is 28.1%. 6th highest in the league. The backend of their lineup is EXTREMELY K VOLATILE.
Every LHP they’ve faced this year has had 6+ Ks. We only need 5. Framber has all the stuff.
K’ING THE ANGELS🔥
Will Warren O 5.5 Ks -125 (MGM)
In the 33 PA against the Angels batters he’s faced, he posts a 54.6% K rate. That’s absolutely ELITE.
He is over in 2/2 H2H matchups against the Angels. The Angels have an average K rate of 25.9% versus RHP.
Warren has all the tools plus a favorable matchup to clear this line.
WALK IT OUT 🚶
Christopher Sanchez O 1.5 BB -104 (Caesars)
The Cubs have the 5th most walks in the MLB. They have walked twice or more versus every LHP they’ve faced so far.
They have FIVE hitters with above average 20% BB% vs LHP.
That gives us huge opportunity to get atleast 2 walks out of this Cubs lineup today. Sanchez walked 4 against the Nats who rank much lower in BB%.
K’ING THE ANGELS🔥
Will Warren O 5.5 Ks -125 (MGM)
In the 33 PA against the Angels batters he’s faced, he posts a 54.6% K rate. That’s absolutely ELITE.
He is over in 2/2 H2H matchups against the Angels. The Angels have an average K rate of 25.9% versus RHP.
Warren has all the tools plus a favorable matchup to clear this line.
NRFI POTD 🍀
Cardinals/Guardians NRFI -115
Both the pitchers on the mound have ~75% NRFI records. They also both post ~.200 BAA against the opposing team. Those numbers are both in our favor.
These offenses also both have roughly a 70% NRFI record meaning they are typically slow to start the game.
All signs here point towards a NRFI. We’re not going to overthink it.
WALK IT OUT 🚶
Christopher Sanchez O 1.5 BB -104 (Caesars)
The Cubs have the 5th most walks in the MLB. They have walked twice or more versus every LHP they’ve faced so far.
They have FIVE hitters with above average 20% BB% vs LHP.
That gives us huge opportunity to get atleast 2 walks out of this Cubs lineup today. Sanchez walked 4 against the Nats who rank much lower in BB%.
This line is WAY too low
Logan Webb O 5.5 Ks -136 (FD)
Webb is an elite pitcher, we all know that. The Orioles strikeout at the 9th HIGHEST rate in the MLB. Webb absolutely cooks teams ranked in the top half of K%.
I could see this even being a potential ladder spot. This line is way too low for a guy of his caliber against an offense like this.
NRFI POTD 🍀
Cardinals/Red Sox NRFI -120 (FD)
Suarez posts a 23-3 NRFI record. Leahy 1-0. The bigger advantage comes to the offensive side where neither team consistently scores in the first inning.
Good edge for us here with all the analytics on our side to prevent any runs in the first.
The PERFECT Matchup
Brandon Williamson O 4.5 Ks -135 (DK)
Williamson is a LHP who mostly gets his Ks vs RHH. Luckily for us, 7/9 of the Angels batters are RHH with EXTREMELY high K rates.
This matchup is way too good for us to overlook and not play. He could well reach this line and even go more.
This line is WAY too low
Logan Webb O 5.5 Ks -136 (FD)
Webb is an elite pitcher, we all know that. The Orioles strikeout at the 9th HIGHEST rate in the MLB. Webb absolutely cooks teams ranked in the top half of K%.
I could see this even being a potential ladder spot. This line is way too low for a guy of his caliber against an offense like this.