Josh Lehner

Husband. Father. Economist. I run to eat terrible food and drink good beer. #ChiefsKingdom #RCTID #BoomerSooner

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Feels like we’re going to have a real relegation battle this season. A legit 4-8 teams going at it. Going to be magnificent and more interesting than the top of the table. My other hopes this season include Hull staying up and Brighton making Europe

[Polymarket FC @PolymarketFC]

🚨 This is the Premier League table as we head into International Break. 🦁

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Starting to affect construction again:

[Rick Palacios Jr. @RickPalaciosJr]

ICE has become a bigger issue for the housing industry in recent months, as noted in this broad regional commentary from homebuilders we surveyed in early September:

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Updated research finds increase in ICE arrests has 4x labor market impact - labor supply declines, economy suffers - across 64 metros that saw surge in ICE activity. (PDX included. Overall findings imply local -5k to -9k job impact which ain't nothing when jobs fell 15k in 2025)

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

New Census research on wildfire economic impact. Destroyed homes: half not rebuilt w/in 4 years, residents see 26% income decline, more out-migration, residents of rebuilt homes higher income etc. Data/sample is very CA-centric but includes Oregon's devastating 2020 fires

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@NickTimiraos @IrvingSwisher Yes, methodology changes for both portfolio mgmt and computer software result in higher August PCE than under methodology

[Jed Kolko @JedKolko]

The quality and credibility of the entire U.S. statistical system are at risk as the Administration seeks to change how congressional seats are apportioned and redistricting maps are drawn.

Four things have happened.

🧵

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

These findings make sense to me. Data centers are a mediocre ecdev strategy. Looking at the paper from a PNW perspective interesting to see Hood River, Walla Walla and Missoula are the control (comparison) group. Definitely not the same socio-economic subset...

[Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher]

Interesting paper that at least at first glance suggests that data center developers and local govts are doing a suboptimal job of capitalizing on the potential opportunities from data center development

https://t.co/XrqGb87Pt7

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@Adam_Susman @DesertCorpsPTFC Bitter sweet day from a stats perspective

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@TimbersFC @ChrisRifer @JakeZivin @StumptownFooty Amazing (and kinda sad) to see the Timbers hat trick drought end. They went 521 matches without one, a 0.0000567% (1 in 1.74 million) probability outcome. Even happier for Janssen though, two great goals last night (plus the pen) #RCTID

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@TimbersFC @ChrisRifer @JakeZivin @StumptownFooty Amazing (and kinda sad) to see the Timbers hat trick drought end. They went 521 matches without one, a 0.0000567% (1 in 1.74 million) probability outcome. Even happier for Janssen though, two great goals last night (plus the pen) #RCTID

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

With Dairon subbed off with a brace, we’re now at a 0.07% probability #RCTID has not had a hat trick in our MLS history. I think, roughly. Today is 421st regular season match from what I can tell.

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Over past decade the average @mls match has a hat trick about 1.7% of the time. @TimbersFC have played 386 regular season matches with zero hat tricks. The probability of that happening is 0.12%. Given how many braces #RCTID have had, I bet the conditional probability is lower

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@TimbersFC @ChrisRifer @JakeZivin @StumptownFooty Timbers now at 0.0000625% (1 in 1.6 million) probability of not having a hat trick with Mora subbed off, would’ve been a worthy feat in his last match #RCTID

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Don’t mind me, just rereading Warsh, drinking some Fort George at the coast #TheLastDaysOfSummer

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@conorsen FWIW there is no longer just the one route to go of attracting young (ish) college grads. You could go hard for aging demographics, attracting retirees and wealth and then the medical jobs that come with them. Both strategies wane, literally, in 10-20 years anyway

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Portland metro migration remains positive, good economic news, key driver of future labor force gains which are especially needed given OR’s old age and low birth rate. Second chart: Urban neighborhoods within region still seeing outflows though

[Jim Russell @ProducerCities]

From the Cleveland Fed, the Urban & Regional Migration Estimates for 2026 Q2 are out. Milwaukee is the headline story: "Places that traditionally had negative net domestic migration continue to benefit from a slowdown of migration overall" [Stephan Whitaker]

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Yeah this must be the place #norcal #AnnualSummerTripToGrandmas

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

@IrvingSwisher Lmfao

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

It may be the 25th anniversary tour of Jimmy Eat World’s Bleed American but it’s also our 16th anniversary 👸🏻 ❤️ (plus they opened with 4 songs off Clarity, just perfect) #GeriatricMillennials

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Brutal loss. But at least 👦🏻 got first real experience/scar of being let down by your sports team? Many more to come son, many more. First 2 goals were right in front of us 🤡 But it was fun to go, glad we did it. That little fishing village up north is alright too.

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

🇺🇸 ⚽️

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Whip Inflation Now! @federalreserve #ThriftStoreFind

[Josh Lehner @lehnerjw]

Oregon has long benefited from the influx of skilled labor across its southern border, particularly when there is a growing gap in relative housing costs (and to a lesser extent if jobs are more available). Will see if this time is different.

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

SF housing taking off like a rocket is making me wonder how long it’ll take for there to be spillover elsewhere — metros and neighborhoods have been pretty stagnant since 2022 but that probably starts to change soon.