Lemon Pepper Picks

In-Depth NBA Playoff Prop Writeups and Recaps

Join me as a I try to develop a strategy for finding an edge for NBA props.

Current : 34-44-0 (-12.7 u)

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

I went through the RCR data and selected all the prop lines that have favorable %s in both L1 and Series average categories and found 22 different props

We ended up going 15-7 🔥🔥

If we bet 1u on each prop, we would be up roughly 4u on the day.

This seems to be a promising strategy. I'm working on automating the data so that we can quickly identify the best prop lines for each game.

Stay tuned for Game 5 props!

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

My fellow degenerates, how I've missed you. I've taken a hiatus from daily props to work on my method for researching bets. I did a test run for yesterday's Game 4 props and would like to share the results

These charts show the Over/Under line for every Points/Rebound/Assist/3PM line available prior to Game 4.

1) What is RCR?

Required Conversion Rate (RCR) is a percentage that expresses the amount of X stat a player needs to successfully convert on in order to cash their prop line.

2) How is RCR calculated?

First you start with the number X player needs to hit the Over. Then divide by the projected volume for that stat. To determine projected volume, look at player averages for the series, H2H averages, and L1 game performance.

For example: Jalen Brunson O/U 2.5 rebounds.

He needs 3 rebounds to cash the Over. If we check the advanced stats, we could see that he had 10 rebound chances (REBc) in Game 3 and is averaging 9.7 REBc this series.

To calculate the RCR for Brunson's rebound line, we would divide 3 (# of REB to cash the Over) by 10 (# of REBc he had last game), which gives us .300

Using his series avg REBc, we would get 3/9.7 = .309

3) How to interpret RCR

RCR <40% = bet the OVER
RCR >70% = bet the UNDER

A high RCR % means that the player must successfully convert on a majority of their projected volume for the bet to cash. A low RCR % gives us a better chance at cashing the Over because it allows for the player to miss a few shots/rebounds/assists.

Assuming 10 REBc, Brunson only needs to convert on 30% of his rebound chances for his over to cash. He can miss out on 7 rebound chances and we'd be fine. If his line was something like O/U 6.5 rebounds, then he must convert on 70% of his rebound chances (we can only afford 3 missed rebound chances, which is unlikely).

We target a prop if it has multiple categories of RCR that falls within our targeted range. Jalen Brunson's O/U 2.5 rebound line is favorable because it has an RCR of <40% for both L1 Games and series averages.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER RECAP 05/20/26🌶️🍋

1-1, not bad for first day back

Jalen Williams Over 4.5 rebounds ❌ 1
Stephon Castle Over 6.5 assists ✅ 8

JDub exited the game after the 1Q, only logged 1 rebound in 7 mins. Tough luck there, can't do anything about that

Castle was the sole ball handler for the Spurs tonight w/ no Fox + Harper midgame injury. From what I saw it felt like he had fewer actions w/ Wemby due to tighter OKC defense. His slashing allowed him to create a lot of shots for his teammates. Good read

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/20/26🌶️🍋

Stephon Castle Over 6.5 assists (-124)
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 rebounds (-130)

___

Castle had 22 potential assists in Game 1. With similar volume, he'd only need to convert on 31% of his potentials for this to cash. He will continue to feast off of the Wemby PnR. His physicality and slashing to the basket will also create a lot of potential assists.

JDub had 16 rebound chances in Game 1. With similar volume, he will also only need to convert on 31% of his chances to cash the line. We saw OKC sit iHart and throw JDub and Caruso on Wemby. Ofc they weren't able to completely lock down Wemby, but that was the best they could do to slow him down. If that scheme continues, expect JDub to be in good positions for rebound chances

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/20/26🌶️🍋

Stephon Castle Over 6.5 assists (-124)
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 rebounds (-130)

___

Castle had 22 potential assists in Game 1. With similar volume, he'd only need to convert on 31% of his potentials for this to cash. He will continue to feast off of the Wemby PnR. His physicality and slashing to the basket will also create a lot of potential assists.

JDub had 16 rebound chances in Game 1. With similar volume, he will also only need to convert on 31% of his chances to cash the line. We saw OKC sit iHart and throw JDub and Caruso on Wemby. Ofc they weren't able to completely lock down Wemby, but that was the best they could do to slow him down. If that scheme continues, expect JDub to be in good positions for rebound chances

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER RECAP 05/12/26🌶️🍋

Mannnnnnnnnnnnnn capping NBA playoffs is a different beast compared to the regular season. 0-2 on the day.
What happened?

Rudy got benched early for giving up 16 Wemby points in the first 6 minutes of the game. When he went back in for his 2nd shift, he was getting spaced out of the paint on defense and had 2 quick TOs on offense - immediately subbed out. Chris Finch opted to run Naz for floor spacing the rest of the game.

Ant was on track to cash the Over, scored his 20th point at the beginning of the 4Q. Then proceeded to shoot the ball only 2 times for the rest of the game.... He was getting doubled every time he got the ball so his FGA was heavily limited compared to the L2 games.

Targeting favorable conversion rates only gets me so far - the reads and adjustments in the playoffs are impossible to predict with numbers. We're going to need to take bigger leaps of faith when predicting coaching adjustments.

For example, we bet on Ant's points line because he was averaging 34 on 20+ FGA the L2 games - in the regular season, if we had that FG volume, it makes sense to follow the trend and bet the Over. If the bet misses, we at least have plenty of games left in the season to adjust our reads and try to break even. In the playoffs, those averages are an indicator for what the defense will key in on next game. The opposing coaching staff is going to see exactly what we see in the box scores and will make the proper defensive adjustments.

At the end of the day, we're still gambling, so there will always be unknown variables. We'll keep doing our homework with the stats and take these Ls to the chin.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/12/26🌶️🍋

Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-113)
Rudy Gobert Over 9.5. rebounds (-120)
_______

- Since getting his minutes restriction lifted, Ant is averaging 34 points on 12.5/24 FGA (52%) and 3/7 3PA (42%). I'm expecting him to have similar shooting volume going forward - with Donte out, the other scoring options for MIN are all forwards/bigs who get their buckets in the paint and they will have elite defensive coverages. Ant has the most favorable defensive matchup. Castle plays good defense but the TWolves are going to be forcing switches all game, where Ant can cook the other Spurs defenders.

- I don't remember the last time Rudy's rebound line was < 10.5. He's averaging 18 rebound chances (25% contested) this series. He is over in 3/4 games this series. He's going to be a key factor in slowing down Wemby, so will have plenty of opportunity to grab boards as usual.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/12/26🌶️🍋

Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-113)
Rudy Gobert Over 9.5. rebounds (-120)
_______

- Since getting his minutes restriction lifted, Ant is averaging 34 points on 12.5/24 FGA (52%) and 3/7 3PA (42%). I'm expecting him to have similar shooting volume going forward - with Donte out, the other scoring options for MIN are all forwards/bigs who get their buckets in the paint and they will have elite defensive coverages. Ant has the most favorable defensive matchup. Castle plays good defense but the TWolves are going to be forcing switches all game, where Ant can cook the other Spurs defenders.

- I don't remember the last time Rudy's rebound line was < 10.5. He's averaging 18 rebound chances (25% contested) this series. He is over in 3/4 games this series. He's going to be a key factor in slowing down Wemby, so will have plenty of opportunity to grab boards as usual.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

1-4 🍋🍋🍋

Lemon day.

Rui pulled through - he was the most reliable player for points props this playoffs.

Jaylin big miss, only 1 PRA - played only 8.5 mins and did not get his usual volume.

Tobias got close with 16 - Cavs defense adjusted to make it harder for him to get his shots. He had a team high 17 FGA but was limited to shooting 35%

Ausar missed hard with only 9 PRA - he had 2 early fouls and 1 TO in the first 5 minutes of the game so his minutes were heavily limited 1H. Going into the 2H, the Cavs went on an insane 25-0 run which pretty much killed all Pistons starters props

Duncan huge miss with only 4 points - He only shot the ball TWICE this game. Early foul trouble sent Duncan to the bench and his sub, Levert, was playing too well to put Duncan back in. Duncan played 28.5 mins, Levert got 31 min (24/4/3 on 10/16 FG).
_____
Capping NBA playoffs is much harder than I thought. It's feasible to rely on matchup data and stats during the regular season, but playoffs is a different beast. We can target lines with favorable conversion rates to narrow down our options, but it's very difficult to pin down because teams make adjustments every game.

I think going forward I'm going to be very selective when betting on players who are 2nd/3rd options on their teams. Players like these are more susceptible to role changes via team adjustments. I've only been focusing on them because their lines are typically lower than their season averages so it's easier to find favorable conversion rates. Favorable lines for #1 options are few and far between, but at least their usage isn't as affected as other players when their coaches make adjustments.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/11/26 🌶️🍋

Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 PRA
Rui Rachimura Over 14.5 points
Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 PRA
Tobias Harris Over 18.5 points
Duncan Robinson Over 11.5 points

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/11/26 🌶️🍋

Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 PRA
Rui Rachimura Over 14.5 points
Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 PRA
Tobias Harris Over 18.5 points
Duncan Robinson Over 11.5 points

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

2-3 on the day

Sorry for lack of writeups, been busy. Castle and Randle were good reads. Embiid hook with 4 assist. Oubre did not get his usual shot volume in Game 4. Reid took the People's Elbow to the head.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/10/26🌶️🍋

Joel Embiid Over 4.5 assists (-114)
Kelly Oubre Over 12.5 points (-130)
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points (-120
Julius Randle Under 18.5 points (-125)
Naz Reid Over 1.5 3PM (-140)

Happy Mother’s Day BOL

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/10/26🌶️🍋

Joel Embiid Over 4.5 assists (-114)
Kelly Oubre Over 12.5 points (-130)
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points (-120
Julius Randle Under 18.5 points (-125)
Naz Reid Over 1.5 3PM (-140)

Happy Mother’s Day BOL

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

3-3 on the day

Hooked on Jaylin (9). DET rebounding wasn’t there that game.

30-36-0 on playoffs

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/09/26 🌶️🍋

Daniss Jenkins Over 2.5 rebounds (-109)
Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 PRA (-112)
Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)
Tobias Harris Over 17.5 points (-124)
Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 PRA (-110)
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points (-110)

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🪜DANISS JENKINS LADDER 🪜🌶️

This is the first prop i’ve found this post season with a required conversion rate of 26%. Best I’ve seen is low 30s, almost never see it in the 20s.

3 reb —> 50 to win 47
4 reb —> 25 to win 45
5 reb —> 15 to win 52
6 reb —> 10 to win 67

He’s averaging 11.5 rebound chances this series

3 reb —> convert on 26% to cash
4 reb —> convert on 34% to cash
5 reb —> convert on 43% to cash
6 reb —> convert on 52% to cash

I like this spot given that only 23% of his rebound chances are contested. With the remaining 77% of rebounds uncontested, I feel good

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 PRA (-110)

Running it back with Jaylin.

It's been hard to get a read on this series - Game 1, Jaylin was able to log a solid # of rebounds and assists. In Game 2, the floor was much more spaced out, leading to less R+A, but also leading to Jaylin getting good shooting looks.

IDK what adjustments will be made but I have faith that he will come through for us so long as he gets the necessary minutes.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/09/26 🌶️🍋

Daniss Jenkins Over 2.5 rebounds (-109)
Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 PRA (-112)
Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)
Tobias Harris Over 17.5 points (-124)
Jaylin Williams Over 9.5 PRA (-110)
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points (-110)

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

Tobias Harris Over 17.5 points (-124)
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points (-11)

Combining the writeup for these two. For some reason they remind me of each other.

Both are shooting extremely efficiently this post-season and have gone Over their points lines in a majority of playoff games. But since they are both supposed to be the 3rd scoring option for their teams, their points lines aren't inflating like they would other players.

Tobias is Over in 7/9 post season games, Rui is Over in 7/8. Both are who their teams go to when the other players can't make a shot. With how impactful and efficienct they have been in the playoffs, each of their lines should be bumped by like 3 points IMO.

I'm betting on these guys to continue to be reliable for their teams and taking the "discounted" points lines before they adjust.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)

Running it back with Duren rebounds. Line got bumped down from 11.5 to 10.5 which is good. He saw 31 rebound chances in Game 1, 25 rebound chances in Game 2, for an average of 28 rebound chances this series.

He will need to convert on only 39% of his rebound volume to cash this line.

One of JB's notes during this game was to be more aggressive on the glass. There were times in the 2H where Duren was lazy on the boards and let smaller players get the ball.

I like this line since other players with similar rebound chances volume have rebound lines closer to 12.5 - this feels like a discount at 10.5

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

Ausar Thompson Over 19.5 PRA (-112)

Ausar ended with 19 PRA last game in only 23 minutes of play - severely limited from consistent foul trouble throughout the game. He had 24 PRA in 32 minutes played in Game 1.

His role this series enables him to pack that stat sheet - he can guard Harden/Mitchell while also being able to switch and provide elite help to Mobley/Allen. He makes the right rotations to open shooters. Sets screens and DHOs in the offense. He might not be the best scorer, but is consistently in great positions to get counting stats.

Avoid foul trouble and we should be in a good spot.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

Daniss Jenkins Over 2.5 rebounds (-109)

Riding this line till the wheels fall off - 7 rebounds on 12 chances in Game 1, 6 rebounds on 11 chances in Game 2.

With the Cavs doing everything they can to shut down Cade, Jenkins has seen increased minutes. Expect to get 20+ from him.

Only needs to convert on 25% of rebound chances to cash. We've rarely seen required conversions <30% so I love this line.

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

2-2 on the day

Castle and Champagnie both held to under 30% FG

[Lemon Pepper Picks @LemonPepperPix]

🍋🌶️LEMON PEPPER PICKS 05/08/26🌶️🍋

Stephon Castle Over 15.5 points
Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 points
Joel Embiid Over 4.5 assists
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 4.5 assists