Leo

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@robin_j_brooks You’re getting seriously worried now that oil is going back up, which you said it wouldn’t. Hate to be you now.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Recent bond selloff has driven 30yr TIPS to near 3% real yields. While everyone roots around to find the next hot stock, this is likely the generational buying opportunity hiding in plain sight.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years.
It's hard to say I've never had the timing right.
I was short Amazon at the top in 2000.
I went way long small cap value in late 2000.
I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002.
In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run.
In 2004, I got into oil before a big run.
I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later...
In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did.
In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009.
In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok.
In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not.
In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows.
In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID.
In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history.
Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked.
During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund.
In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it.
IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok.
July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023.
2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken.
2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious.
2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120.
I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone.
I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

.@grok Analyze the track record of Axios reports of peace deals, truces, and kinetic stand-downs based solely on comments of unidentified U.S. officials. Include incidence rates of Iranian denials, debunkings, and disputes that became public within 48 hrs of prior incidents. Also look for correlation of such reports to start of trading of crude oil futures on Sundays. Assess the reliability of such reports based on past performance.

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@Foxexpresstime @briano2009 @Ben_Scallan Google it, it’s not a compliment at all. It implies that the person’s partner is out of their league. How on earth is that supposed to be complimentary? It’s like saying that house is way too nice for a person like you to live in.

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@GeoffMc453208 @briano2009 @Ben_Scallan It absolutely isn’t a compliment. It might be meant in jest, or with good intentions, but it definitely isn’t a compliment.

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@robin_j_brooks Watch and learn

[Mia Hughes @_CryMiaRiver]

Neil Hopper was a vascular surgeon who had both his own legs amputated to satisfy his sexual fantasy.

I covered his story in depth last year, but there's a part of it that was just too disturbing to include in the essay.

Here's me telling @peterboghossian all about it.

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@danobrien20 The maths doesn’t work. Hormuz lost 18mb/d. US added 4mb/d. That’s not covering it. Prices are held down by speculators betting short, not US supply. And restricting US exports to cut domestic prices would just cause inflation instead. One variable, wrong conclusion.

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@Brad_Setser Ireland doesn’t make much money from corporation tax. The main earner is income taxes or personal taxes on its citizens

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@BitinoAi @BowesChay Go onto a population forecasting website and roll forward Ukraine and Russia’s population over the next few years. It’s not great!

[Laura Perrins BL @LPerrins]

Ireland’s corporation tax receipts reached €32.9 billion in 2025, marking a 17.2% increase from 2024 and contributing significantly to the Exchequer surplus. Ireland runs an exchequer surplus yet has no socialised health system, a minimum defence budget, no metro, VAT is set at 23% (UK is 20%) and the middle-class carries the second highest tax burden in the OECD. Where does it all go?
https://t.co/rYxke58VjM

[Troll Touchline @TrollTouchline]

🚨🗣️ | Wayne Rooney on the Media Hypocrisy Regarding Arsenal:

“I’ve been seeing the reaction to the Bayern and PSG game, and honestly, it’s a joke. Everyone was hyping this up as the 'ultimate' game of the week, the most entertaining game of the round. It ends 1-1 and I’m seeing nothing. Where’s that same energy people have for Arsenal?
When Arsenal grind out a 1-0 win or a 1-1 draw the media calls it 'boring' or 'negative football.' But look at Bayern tonight I didn’t see a team that wanted to win. I saw a Bayern side that looked like they expected PSG to just sit back and defend, but got disappointed. They played with zero energy, their body language was completely lackluster, and they looked lost. If Mikel Arteta’s side put in a performance like that, every pundit in the country would be slating them for the next week.
People need to start being honest. You look at Arsenal versus Atlético yesterday that was a proper Champions League semi-final. It had everything: intensity, quality, drama. It was the most entertaining match of the week by a mile.

But because it's Arsenal, the goalposts always move. Now that the media’s favorites, PSG and Bayern, have put on a 1-1 aggregate snoozefest, is anyone calling it 'haram football'? Of course not. We all know the answer to that.
It’s pure hypocrisy. Deep down, everyone knows this Arsenal team is one of the best in Europe right now. The only reason people pretend to hate the way they play is because their own teams aren't half as good as them. It’s time we start judging football on fairness and logic, not just because it’s popular to have a go at Arsenal”

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?"

"Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all."

[Leo @Leo1678370]

@MOSSADil You post quite a bit of fake news, don’t you?

[Graham Linehan @Glinner]

He's not having a great week, is he?

[Graham Linehan @Glinner]

What happens when a vibes economist meets the real thing.

[MAZE @mazemoore]

The Late Night show hosts were so giddy and celebratory after Trump was banned from social media.

They absolutely LOVE censorship until someone accusing one of them of crossing the line. Then they become supporters of free speech.

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS on Ilhan Omar: "I believe she married her brother, which is totally illegal — although, it’s a lovely couple, actually, but it’s a little bit on the illegal side."

"'Darling, I love you very much.' 'Goodnight, brother. Let’s go to bed' — Isn't she despicable?" 🤣

[Matthias Schmidt @eurofounder]

My wife’s father is in the hospital in Munich in a critical condition

She was supposed to fly there today, but Lufthansa cancelled her flight

I found her crying at the kitchen table

“Papa might not make it, I need to be there today”

I shook my head in disbelief

“Do you hear yourself? Oil prices are sky high. Lufthansa is making the right choice”

She asked if I could drive her

“Diesel is €2.40 per liter. We must reduce non-essential travel”

“It’s my dad, it IS essential travel” she was sobbing

“The EU defines essential travel. Not you” I calmly explained

She took the train for €349 and left without saying goodbye

I felt proud watching her go by rail, a sustainable form of transportation

This is how a serious continent handles an energy crisis