LeoRX 勛哥

- President｜@nchublockchain
- Campus AMB｜@MEXCZH
- Focusing on Web3 / Crypto (TA, SMC, on-chain data)/ Macroeconomics / International current affairs

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@nchublockchain @CryptoWesearch 🔥😍

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@nchublockchain @MEXCZH @0xKendall 🔥🔥🙌🏻

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

看到 @PoPi66002146 的文章，也來參一咖～

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

1,096,361

1BTC = 1MBTC

.-- . / .-- .. .-.. .-.. / ... . -.-. ..- .-. . / .---- --..-- ----- ----. -.... --..-- ...-- -.... .---- / ... .- - --- ... .... .. / -... - -.-. .-.-. https://t.co/5Sr0YAj6qo

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@lengs4189 CardFi 也太強了，一目了然，我 Mscore 也是在近 700 跟你一樣是 6% 返現！

[MEXC_華語 @MEXCZH]

🔍 未來祭找 MEXC 現場尋寶任務開啟 @TaipeiWeek

來到 台灣未來祭 FutureMode，如果看到 MEXC 的攤位、活動、周邊或任何相關元素，拍下來留言，就有機會抽中 500 USDT 合約倉位！

✅追蹤 @MEXCZH ，轉推此推文
✅留言 MEXC UID + 你在現場發現 MEXC 的照片

🗓 活動時間：09/04–09/06
🎁 活動獎勵：抽 10 位，每位 500 USDT 合約倉位

來未來祭別只顧著逛，看到 MEXC，記得拍下來 📸

10 個名額，500 USDT 合約倉位等你帶走

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@MEXCZH @TaipeiWeek UID: 98946613
抽一個
@yummy_mexc 🙏🏻

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@yummy_mexc 非常清楚的 M-Score 養成計畫，必須細品！

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@xl10038 我記得跟其他的一樣 都是domain

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

非常感謝 @Teddy_MEXC 和 @MEXCZH 讓小弟我拿到 MEXC Global Card 新卡的測試資格，被選到的第一感受真的是非常意外，也覺得非常幸運！

以前官方卡最讓人卡關的，就是行動支付這塊，原本雖然已經有 Google Pay，但一直等不到 Apple Pay，這次終於補上了！

申辦速度也快得有點不習慣，從送出申請到通過，整個流程不到三分鐘，有些流程，本來就不該讓人等太久，這部分非常完美～

支援的地區也更多了，臺灣和一些華語區本來就都在範圍內，所以這部分維持原樣。

回饋也維持原本的水準，基礎就 4%，最高可以提升到 10%。

身為校園大使，這陣子常被身邊的人問卡的優缺點、活動資格、能否行動支付等等，這次官方的 MEXC Card Platinum 試用版，加入了 Apple Pay，之後推薦起來也更踏實，同時也提高了吸引力，聽說 9 月官方可能還會有新活動，到時候再跟大家更新！

一張卡好不好，從來不是看第一眼多驚艷，而是之後每一次實際在使用的時候，會不會覺得順手，之後的日常消費再來和大家分享。

#applepay #mexc #BTC

[MEXC_華語 @MEXCZH]

久等了！MEXC Global Card 搶先體驗名單來了 ！

感謝大家這幾天的熱烈參與��我們已經從報名用戶中選出部分幸運夥伴，搶先體驗全新的Global Card！

��在名單上的朋友，可以到 MEXC App-MEXC Card即可看到Global Card卡片👀

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@jay_22413 @Teddy_MEXC @MEXCZH visa

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@Teddy_MEXC @MEXCZH 沒問題的 Teddy

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@COMMA_LLL @MEXCZH 感謝～🙏🏻

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

✍🏻 Personal Perspective

🚨 $BTC rips through $69,500, over $1B in shorts liquidated in the past hour — short squeeze or bull run?

Spot spiked straight to around $69,500, with futures briefly running even higher, some exchanges printing above $70,000. Liquidations over the past hour hit roughly $1.4 billion, with about 93% coming from short positions, the sharpest one sided liquidation wave in recent memory. Crypto finally got a real move after a long stretch of dead price action.

There’s a genuine macro catalyst behind this move: the US Treasury announced it’s doubling the size of its bond buyback program, pushing long end yields lower. The market is reading this as a form of implicit yield curve control, and gold and silver both jumped more than 3.5% in tandem. That’s a liquidity easing signal worth keeping an eye on.

Watching the positioning data alongside price: open interest actually dropped fast while price ripped higher. That tells you this move wasn’t driven mainly by fresh longs coming in, it was largely shorts being forced to cover, stop outs, liquidations, and buy backs feeding on each other in a textbook short squeeze. A squeeze can send price flying in a short window without meaning bullish capital has genuinely returned. What actually matters now is whether OI and volume rebuild once price stabilizes. If they climb together, that signals real new longs stepping in. If OI keeps shrinking, this looks more like a liquidity sweep on the short side clearing the way for a deeper pullback, not the start of a new trend.

📝 My own lean is toward the latter: this looks like a clean out of low leverage, crowded short positioning, wiping the short side supply that was sitting overhead, as final prep before the next leg down. This actually fits cleanly into the second death cross, holder structure, and valuation framework from my last few posts, more like the washout phase within that setup than something contradicting it.
That said, the Treasury move is a genuine policy pivot signal. If OI actually rebuilds alongside price and holds above this $69,000 level, that would point to liquidity conditions genuinely turning dovish, and I’d go back and re-examine the bearish thesis at that point. Both paths are still open right now, and neither one has been confirmed yet.

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

✍🏻 Personal Perspective

🚨 bitcoin:native 急拉突破 $69,500，一小時內超過 10 億美元空單遭清算，這是軋空還是牛來？

現貨一口氣衝到 $69,500 附近，合約一度衝更高，少部分交易所甚至超過 $70,000，過去一小時清算金額高達約 14 億美元，其中大概 93% 來自空單，是近期最猛的一波單向清算，沉悶很久的幣圈也終於有一波明顯行情。

這次上漲背後有一個真實的總經催化劑：美國財政部宣布擴大公債回購規模，壓低長天期殖利率，市場解讀為某種形式的「隱性殖利率曲線控制」，而黃金和白銀也同步上漲超過 3.5%，這是一個偏流動性寬鬆的訊號，可以留個心眼注意一下。

同步觀察籌碼結構：價格急拉的同時，持倉量(OI)反而快速下降。這代表推動這波的主要不是新多單進場，而是很多原本做空的人被迫回補平倉，空單停損、爆倉、回補買進，形成典型的軋空行情。軋空可以讓價格短時間噴出，但不等於多頭資金已經全面回歸。我們真正要觀察的，是價格站穩之後，OI 與成交量能不能重新回升。如果能同步增加，才代表有新多頭部位願意接手；如果 OI 持續萎縮，這段更像是空單被清掃流動性，準備更深的回撤，而非新一輪趨勢的開始。

📝 我自己傾向後者：這波比較像是把低倍槓桿、擁擠的空頭部位一次掃乾淨，清空原本壓在上方的空單籌碼，為後續的下跌動作做最後準備，其實跟我前幾篇提到的二次死叉、籌碼面、估值面框架並不衝突，反而像是這個框架中提到的洗盤的其中一環。

不過財政部這個動作是真實的公債政策轉向訊號，如果接下來 OI 真的隨價格同步回升，而且站穩在這個 $69,000 之上，那就代表流動性環境可能真的在轉鴿，到時候我會重新檢視原本的空頭假設。兩條路線現在都還沒有絕對，目前也還沒有哪一邊被完全證實。

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@MEXCZH 已填，已期待🤩

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

@Teddy_MEXC 真的非常感動，會方便不少，也會提升使用意願！

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

📉 Technical structure, holder behavior, valuation, and cycle duration are all now pointing the same direction, but none of them have fully confirmed yet. The genuine bottom signal still requires an explosive high volume red weekly candle that flushes out the last of the leveraged longs in a single move. Until that candle prints, do not catch this knife, do not front run a bottom, and do not chase a relief bounce.
⚠️ That said, for anyone running a lower risk strategy, I think continuing to DCA into the highest conviction assets in crypto from here is a reasonable approach. Avoiding blind knife catching does not mean you need to take on the higher risk task of guessing the exact bottom tick. Each time these signals cluster together and point toward a bottoming zone, building a position gradually at these lower cost levels is simply a way of spreading out entry timing risk.
🎯 To restate it one more time, my terminal target remains under ongoing validation: BTC $50,000 to $52,500 / ETH $1,350 to $1,400

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

✍🏻 Personal Perspective

🚨 bitcoin:native 四個層面的訊號共振：牛市支撐帶二次死叉、籌碼面、估值面、週期天數，都指向 Q4 高機率熊底 📉

回顧上上篇的內容：https://t.co/OZ05zdh3pS

1️⃣ 技術面：Bull Market Support Band 第二次死亡交叉
上上篇的推文中提到，牛市支撐帶的兩條線即將出現死亡交叉，在昨天（2026/08/16）k棒結算後，如預期出現了死亡交叉，這是本輪熊市的第二次死亡交叉。參考 2022 年同樣結構：第一次死叉後均線一度黃金交叉反彈，但在第二次死叉出現後，BTC 直接從 $32,000 跌到 $17,000，跌幅近 47%。二次確認，歷史上才是主跌段真正啟動的訊號，等待 1W 級別出現一次爆發性的巨量大陰線。

2️⃣ 籌碼面：BTC STH HODL Waves 已經跌入歷史熊底洗盤���
這張圖看的是短期持有者（持幣未滿半年）佔全鏈籌碼的比例，牛市噴出階段，追高的新買盤湧入，STH 佔比會飆高。但每一輪真正的熊底成形前,這些新買盤會被套牢甚至恐慌割肉，籌碼轉手給長期持有者，STH 佔比隨之回到歷史低檔，2015、2019、2020、2022-23 的底部，全部發生在這個同樣的收斂區間。目前 STH 佔比即將降到同一個區間內，代表投機性籌碼正在被洗出。（資料來源：CryptoQuant）

3️⃣ 估值面：BTC MVRV Z-Score 還沒跌到位
這個指標算的是「市值」相對「已實現市值」（全鏈籌碼的平均成本）偏離了多少個標準差，數值越高，大部分人手上浮盈越厚，獲利了結的賣壓越強，歷史高點都出現在紅色過熱區(>7)（唯獨這次的牛市沒有明顯過熱訊號）；數值降到接近或低於 0 的綠色區間，代表市場均價已經跌到普遍持有者的成本線附近甚至以下，賣壓自然枯竭，歷史低點也都出現在此區(<0)。目前 Z-Score 雖然已經從高點回落，但還沒跌進那個綠色深度低估區，即將進入此區域，可以開始留意。(資料來源：Bitcoin Magazine Pro)

我們把兩張圖對照著看，可以簡單理解成，STH HODL Waves 看的是誰在拿籌碼，MVRV Z-Score 看的是這些籌碼值不值錢。前者已經進入歷史洗盤區間，後者卻還沒跌到位，弱手已經開始離場，但市場均價還沒跌到普遍持有者的成本線附近。籌碼結構領先鬆動，估值水位落後，我認為這正是熊底成形過程中很典型的不同步現象。

4️⃣ 週期天數：歷史規律指向 10–11 月
回顧前三輪牛熊週期，從最高點到最低點分別歷時 406 天、363 天、376 天。本輪高點落在 2025/10/06，截至目前已經過 315 ��。如果以同樣區間推算，本輪熊底大機率落在��年 10 月初至 11 月中，也就是第四季度。

📉 技術面、籌碼面、估值面、週期天數，四個訊號方向趨於一致，但都還沒同時到位，真正的落底訊號，還是要等待 1W 級別出現爆發性巨量大陰線，一次性清掃最後的多頭槓桿，在那根 K 棒出現前,切勿盲目抄底、接刀、搶反彈。

⚠️ 不過，如果個人的策略是屬於低風險投資的話，我認為從現在起持續 DCA 幣圈中最有價值的資產，是一件好事，雖然說不要盲目抄底接刀，但同時沒有必要去高風險的猜測熊底到底在哪，去抓的那個最低點。只要在每次訊號出現，告訴我們在底部附近，開始在低成本的位置持續 DCA，就是一種分散進場時機風險的做法！

🎯 但還是再說一次，我認為的終極目標位還是持續驗證中：BTC：$50,000 – $52,500 / ETH：$1,350 – $1,400

你們覺得這次熊底比較可能落在 10 月初還是 11 月中？
哪個總體經濟���件最可能觸發一直在講的最後一根清算 K 棒？

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

✍🏻 Personal Perspective

🚨 $BTC 與 $ETH 終極目標清算：法案催化劑確定歸零，即將迎接本輪深熊目標價📉

市場最危險的時候，不是利空消息，而是大家把總體經濟衰退誤認為降息利多，忽視制度確定性正在消失的時刻，而不確定性，正式許多下跌時最重要的因素或敘事。

《CLARITY Act》確定延期至 9 月休會後表決，今年暑期前的立法窗口正式關閉。也就是說過去幾個月市場最核心的「監管溢價」暫時落空，加密市場的定價權，已經從政��交還給總體經濟與籌碼結構的暴力清算。

⬇️ 我認為即將暴跌的原因：

1️⃣ 制度紅利的暫停
機構補進場的紅利被迫暫停，《GENIUS Act》（天才法案）奠定穩定幣合規基礎，市場原本期待《CLARITY Act》（清晰法案）能明確劃分 SEC 與 CFTC 權限，並掃除傳統銀行參與託管的障礙，但已經確定延期至 9 月休會後表決。
（1）機構邏輯：退休基金與捐贈基金等大資金配置 BTC/ETH，需要的是跨政府的法律確定性。
（2）實際影響：法案延宕代表市場最關鍵的轉換機制被硬生生卡住，機構資金無法合法把加密資產劃入資產配置。僅靠 SEC/CFTC 的行政指引缺乏法律強制力，隨時可能因政黨輪替而改變。沒有了機構大資金合規入場的通道，上方沉重的套牢盤就失去了被消化與拉升的核心燃料。

2️⃣ 總體經濟的衰退
7 月非農新增就業-23,000（預期 +83,000），疊加 5、6 月大幅下修 103,000 個職位。
（1）數據現實：勞動市場已呈現結構性失速，而非溫和降溫，失業率表面降至 4.1%，實則是勞動參與率下降導致。
（2）Fed 兩難：Warsh 主導的 Fed 面臨通膨未完全達標、就業卻加速惡化的困境，通膨衡量指標預計也要到 2027 才有可能大幅調整。即使 9 月被迫降息，也是「防禦型降息」，背後伴隨的是經濟衰退疑慮與總體流動性收縮，對風險資產必為利空。

3️⃣ 籌碼面與現貨 CVD
（1）獲利供應量（Percentage of Supply in Profit）暴跌：該指標呈現斷崖式下滑，意味著上方 BTC $68,000 – $75,000 與 ETH $2,100 – $2,400 累積了極為沉重的套牢盤。
（2）OI 與 CVD 嚴重背離：價格在低位震盪，合約持倉量猛增，但現貨 CVD 卻持續疲軟。這證實散戶正急於逆勢抄底多單，或者說散戶都在上槓桿，主動買盤極度缺乏，正在為大戶/��家累積絕佳的 Liquidity Pool。

4️⃣技術面與市場結構
🪙 比特幣 $BTC：
（1）BTC Bull Market Support Band即將死亡交叉：1D級別牛市支撐帶組成的兩條關鍵動能均線（20W SMA 與 21W EMA 延伸天圖指標）閉合向下，即將形成死亡交叉，象徵中長期趨勢動能再次喪失。
（2）熊旗中繼：價格於 $62,500 – $66,500 之間呈現典型的低成交量橫向整理，也形成不明顯的上升通道（熊旗），反彈多次在 $66,500 遭長上影線拒絕，配合7/21.22的假突破，形成偏空的趨勢。

🪙 以太幣 $ETH：
現在 ETH 的走勢有機會行成 SMC PO3（Power of Three）派發模型：
-Accumulation（吸籌）：先前的橫盤吸籌帶形成於 $1,520 – $1,820，讓籌碼在這邊進行來回換手，增加市場流動性。
-Manipulation（操縱）：7/9 - 7/15，實體K線突破Accumulation的壓力位，一路上攻至 $1,900 以上，同時最高處 $1,980 位於前��� OB 區間內，精準清掃空頭止損並誘使多頭高位追漲。
-Distribution（派發）：價格已來到Manipulation 的支撐位，同時受阻於1D級別牛市支撐帶並向下轉折，等待插回之前的吸籌籌碼密集區。

📉 目前盤面依然沒有落底！真正的熊市大底，絕對不會在縮量震盪中悄然完成。參考歷次週期底部，底部形成前必須在 1W 級別出現一次爆發性的巨量大陰線，單週換手率與清算量達到極致，將市場最後的散戶多頭與不堅定籌碼全部洗出，市場唯有迎來最後一次槓桿大清算（Liquidation Cascade），並在週線印出一根恐怖的巨量 K 棒，才能清空所有多頭槓桿。在週線級別巨量恐慌清算出現前，切勿盲目抄底、接刀與搶反彈。

🎯 終極目標位持續驗證中：BTC：$50,000 – $52,500 / ETH：$1,350 – $1,400

#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #CLARITYAct #Fed #SMC #MacroTrading #CryptoMarket

[LeoRX 勛哥 @LeoRXcrypto]

✍🏻 Personal Perspective

🚨 $BTC: four signals converging. Bull market support band second death cross, on chain holder structure, valuation, and cycle duration all point to a high probability Q4 bear bottom 📉
Revisiting the thread from two posts ago: https://t.co/OtCmz2MRVE…

1️⃣ Technical structure: Bull Market Support Band completes its second death cross Two posts ago I flagged that the two moving averages forming the Bull Market Support Band were converging toward a death cross. After yesterday’s (2026/08/16) weekly candle closed, that cross confirmed as expected. This is the second death cross of the current cycle. Looking at the same structure in 2022 for reference: after the first death cross, the moving averages briefly crossed back golden and the market assumed the storm had passed. After the second death cross, BTC fell from $32,000 to $17,000, a drop of nearly 47 percent. Historically, it is this second confirmation, not the first, that marks the true start of the primary decline. We are now waiting for a single explosive high volume red candle on the weekly timeframe.
2️⃣ Holder structure: BTC STH HODL Waves has entered the historical bear bottom washout zone This chart tracks the share of total supply held by short term holders, defined as coins held under six months. During blow off tops, fresh buyers chasing the rally push this share sharply higher. But ahead of every genuine bear bottom, those same buyers end up underwater and eventually capitulate, handing supply over to long term holders. The short term holder share then compresses back down to the same historical low band seen at the 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022 to 2023 bottoms. The current reading is approaching that same compression zone, indicating speculative supply is being flushed out. (Source: CryptoQuant)
3️⃣ Valuation: BTC MVRV Z Score has not yet reached bottom levels This metric measures how far market cap has deviated, in standard deviations, from realized cap, which approximates the average cost basis of all coins on chain. A higher reading means more of the market is sitting on unrealized profit, which builds pressure to sell. Historical peaks have all occurred in the red overheated zone above 7 (notably, this particular bull run never produced a clear overheating signal). A reading near or below 0, the green zone, indicates the market price has fallen back to or below the average holder’s cost basis, at which point sell pressure naturally dries up. Every historical bottom has occurred in that sub zero zone. The Z Score has pulled back meaningfully from its highs but has not yet entered that deep undervaluation zone, though it is approaching it and is worth watching closely. (Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro)
Reading these two charts together: STH HODL Waves tells you who is holding the supply, while MVRV Z Score tells you whether that supply is cheap or expensive. The former has already entered its historical washout zone while the latter has not yet caught up. Weak hands are already exiting, but the market price has not yet fallen to where the average holder’s cost basis sits. Holder structure is leading the reset while valuation is lagging behind it. In my view this is a textbook pattern of a bear bottom forming out of sync across metrics.
4️⃣ Cycle duration: historical precedent points to October or November Looking at the prior three bull to bear cycles, the time from cycle high to cycle low was 406 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively. This cycle’s high was set on 2025/10/06, and as of today 315 days have elapsed. Applying the same range, the most likely window for this cycle’s bottom falls between early October and mid November, meaning Q4.