Leo Stanek

Vanderbilt Finance Postdoc. Minnesota Economics PhD.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@emollick Because China is not the first mover here. They and their companies and infrastructure have been getting attacked by Mythos since April. Their incentive is to diffuse defensive capabilities as widely as possible. They don’t have the luxury of a Glasswing period of their own.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@alexstamos @growing_daniel I think the strategy is much simpler. The Chinese are compute constrained compared to the US and their government wants to shepherd as much of their compute as possible towards training rather than inference. Open weights is just "Bring your own inference".

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@alexolegimas I mean if humans see enormous returns to specialization why would we expect something different for AI?

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@moflod @yacineMTB @crypt0lake @grok Gemma 4 runs unquantized on 64GB mbp and performs between 4o and o1.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@AndrewCurran_ And for all we know they could be on the steep end of the log curve right now. Even a year ago they said they weren't really using Claude to do AI research much. I'm just pointing out that these doom and gloom scenarios require much more than just "AI can do AI research"

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@ABergeron_econ First year at Minnesota was probably the second toughest year of my life, only behind second year which was the Covid year. Yes once the exams are over you can look back and say “it wasn’t that bad” but if you’re being objective it really was that bad.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@cntblssm69420 @bobby_boyd1946 Honestly I’d be far more worried if we actually had gotten all that snow they were forecasting earlier. I saw tons of salt out on the streets Friday so it seems they prepared well enough for this. With temps around freezing the salt will melt the ice quick.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@bepryor

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@DJSnM Isn't the idea of Mars terraforming to detonate thermonuclear weapons in the ice caps to release all that CO2 into the atmosphere and warm the planet that way? And it would still take hundreds of years before the water started to melt?

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@BillTZimmerman Double Doink.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@luke_leisher_ Look man we've had people cooped up on the ISS in super cramped conditions for over 6 months and they haven't gone insane. I think with appropriate planning the mars transit should be very doable.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@vagueviolet The proposed "life on another world" is something along the lines of anaerobic sulfur vent archaea/bacteria on earth, which are some of the most primitive known organisms. The universe could be teeming with those kinds of microbes without it being a major concern for us

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@ghost_motley 12900k + 4090 I see no reason to upgrade for years to come.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@RealAdamB1 @CX316 @DJSnM @uhuru144 This thing looks way too big for a carrier, especially the Chinese ski-jump designs

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@BrianCAlbrecht Congrats on your growing family man!

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@wwwojtekk @Titleist445 This is peacetime thinking. Sometimes the objective suddenly becomes produce as much as possible as fast as possible and you better be able to achieve that objective.

[Leo Stanek @LeoStanek]

@itaisher Like Jimmy Carter?