Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸

Poker time

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

That @JonathanLittle & @gazelligpoker training is paying off!

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@kurtfogleman @NCBubblehead @ModestTeacher If all 8 billion people on earth were to somehow shuffle a deck of cards 100 billion times each every day, it would still take over 4.3 billion years to reach a 1% chance of any 2 shuffles being identical.

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@NCBubblehead @ModestTeacher If you shuffle 100 billion times per day, it’ll take almost 35 quintillion years of shuffling to reach a 1% chance of any 2 shuffles being identical.

“It has never happened & will never happen” is a very reasonable way to express those odds.

[Alexander Fitzgerald @pokerheadrush]

Why Can't I Win at Low Stakes Games?

Today, let's answer some questions you all had about $1/$2, $1/$3, and $2/$5 games.

Why can't I win at low stakes games?

Everybody keeps asking me this, so I'm going to keep giving the same answer:

My friend says, "if you can't win at low stakes games, it's not a strategic problem. It's an emotional problem."

He was also the one who coined, "nits beat stations, stations beat maniacs, and maniacs beat nits."

He pretty much nailed it between those two sentences. Low stakes games are all about not getting caught up in the desire to sling chips in. You have to wait your turn.

I have been called a boring cash game player for 20 years. However, I'm still paying all my bills from this game two decades in.

There's two types of players in cash games:

Patient and temporary.

It's hard to become too tight in low stakes cash games. It is easy to become too loose.

TBC

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

Just hit a new poker milestone tonight: I had the clock called on me in a cash game for the first time 😂

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@CardsChat QT
T7
JJ
99
88
J9
J8
89
AA

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@Wikinow2 @StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler ~0.322% or 1 in 310

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@Wikinow2 @StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler Your odds of flopping it are higher than that.

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@AllenKessler Chance of flopping at least 1 more card when you have 2 in hand is about 18%:
~16.8% chance of flopping 1
~1.1% chance of 2
~0.025% chance of all 3

When you:

Flop 1, chance of completing is ~0.1%
Flop 2, chance of completing is ~4.5%
Flop 3, chance of completing is 100%

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@learnmixgames @StaceyVaughn True, but there’s half as many AA combos & only 48 fewer non-AA combos

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@Marc_Fagel @richmomz @TheNewArrogator @MikeBenzCyber Right, it’s so unenforced I forgot it even existed 😂

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@learnmixgames @StaceyVaughn Your explanation is correct, but that means the answer is scenario 1. Six combos in scenario 1 & three combos in scenario 2.

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler Very interesting grok gave the same incorrect answer here as your original response, 0.075%.

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler Yes, 3106 is the number of flops that meet our criteria. It’s not 3106/17296, it’s just 3106. It’s not a probability, it’s just the total number of scenarios we’re weighing. The fact there are 17296 total flops is completely irrelevant. But I’m glad you got it figured out 😊

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler https://t.co/PFgSKQ2fOZ

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@AllenKessler Chance of flopping at least 1 more card when you have 2 in hand is about 18%:
~16.8% chance of flopping 1
~1.1% chance of 2
~0.025% chance of all 3

When you:

Flop 1, chance of completing is ~0.1%
Flop 2, chance of completing is ~4.5%
Flop 3, chance of completing is 100%

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler Your math is fine, you’re just not doing the math that answers the question you stated. You said “AND” flop at least 1. That means you’re giving its probability as 1. Yet you’re not calculating as if its probability is 1.

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@AllenKessler Chance of flopping at least 1 more card when you have 2 in hand is about 18%:
~16.8% chance of flopping 1
~1.1% chance of 2
~0.025% chance of all 3

When you:

Flop 1, chance of completing is ~0.1%
Flop 2, chance of completing is ~4.5%
Flop 3, chance of completing is 100%

[Liam Miguel Simard 🇺🇸 @LiamSimard]

@StaceyVaughn @AllenKessler If something is given, you absolutely do not take into account the likelihood of it happening. lol. Lmao.