The last thing we need in the middle of a productivity crisis is a productivity tax.
"The new tax system will now punish businesses more likely to create jobs and economic growth and reward businesses more likely to shed jobs...This is the worst possible plan for a country in need of more jobs and more economic growth."
Under Labor’s new tax:
— You can walk into a casino, come out $1000 ahead, and pay $0 tax
— but if you make $1000 on shares/ETFs, you will pay $300-470 in tax
— if you build & sell a business, the ATO now takes 30-47% of your gain
Gambling is tax-free. Investing is punished.
If Labor wanted to help young people, they would implement:
- a land value tax to attack land speculation,
- bracket indexation to stop inflation taxing wage growth, &
- broaden the GST to fund the revenue gap.
But they decided to go after young founders / investors instead.
Treasury’s CGT modelling appears heavily dependent on assuming Australian shares only deliver ~4.3%-4.4% capital growth p.a., which seems to come from measuring the ASX/200 and All Odds over the last 20 years, a period the Treasurer keeps repeatedly describing as evidence that shares were supposedly “undertaxed” or “undercompensated” - including in this interview with @BilliFitzSimons
But the only circumstance where inflation indexation actually benefits investors relative to the current 50% CGT discount is where inflation makes up more than 50% of total capital returns. That’s generally only true when capital growth itself is unusually low or it’s a market where a very high portion of the total return is paid in dividends (like Australian large caps). That’s not how most younger Australians invest today!
Most younger investors build globally diversified ETF portfolios with significant global share market exposure. Across Stockspot clients, around 50% of share market exposure is global. As one example, Stockspot’s most popular diversified portfolio (Topaz), delivered 7.3% annual capital growth over the 10 years to the end of April 2026, despite having around 22% in defensive assets like bonds and gold.
That massively changes the outcome under the proposed CGT system.
Using:
• $20k invested
• 10 year holding period
• 2.5% inflation
• 30% tax rate
At Treasury’s apparent 4.3% growth assumption:
> current 50% discount tax = $1,571
> proposed new tax = $3,141
But at a more realistic globally diversified 7.3% growth assumption:
> current 50% discount tax = $3,069
> proposed new tax = $6,138
i.e. the extra tax drag roughly doubles. You can use this CGT calculator to see this https://t.co/WFVQzYuMnt
That’s because the proposed inflation indexation plus 30% minimum tax model becomes increasingly punitive as long term capital growth rises. The higher the long term growth rate, the larger the portion of gains exceeding inflation, and the larger the compounding tax drag becomes over time. Which raises an important question... if the modelling omits global shares and other higher capital growth assets like crypto that younger Australians increasingly invest in, are the published examples materially understating the long term tax impact and presenting outcomes that aren’t representative of how people actually invest today?
@Telegraph Simply heartbreaking. Bondi was the mother of all wake-up calls for our country and should be a line in the sand. No more complacency. Australia must unapologetically defend its people and values 🇦🇺✡️
Doubling CGT on all asset classes is Labor’s version of WorkChoices. It’s a tax on entrepreneurship, small business, investing and aspiration.
Let’s https://t.co/8FNXk2Nsyv instead!
You may not agree with me, but you will always know where you stand with me.
Today in Billericay, a heckler tried to shout me down as I spoke about the normalisation of hatred towards Jews. I did not back down, because it needs to be said. British Jews are being targeted and too many people are pretending this is the same experience of other minorities. This lady implied Muslims are being similarly targeted. This is simply not true.
Let's be honest about what is happening. Certain groups (in particular but not solely Islamic Extremists) are creating a climate of fear and intimidation that is normalising Jew hatred. I will never stand for that. Governments have spent too long hand-wringing, making excuses and hoping it would go away. It is time to call this what it is: a national emergency in our attitude, our urgency and our response.
I will always engage with people who disagree with me. That is politics. But there is a difference between argument and intimidation. Shouting does not make a bad case good. It's done to silence others. And it certainly does not change the truth.
The truth is that British Jews have been made to feel less safe in their own country. Our country. They are being singled out, threatened and harassed in ways that should shame everyone in public life. If we do not stand up now and stop this rise in antisemitism, then why bother saying "Never Again" at Holocaust Memorial Day? Because this is how it starts.
I am not prepared to play along with the pretence that this is normal, or manageable, or just another example of tension between groups. It really is not. It is targeted hatred and it is getting worse.
So my message is simple. Not here. Not in Britain. And not on our watch. We need to stop the hand-wringing and start doing the right thing. That means standing with British Jews openly, unapologetically and without fear.
A minimum wage of £15 would end my coffee shop, it would have to close, as would many other businesses.
I’ll explain for the economically illiterate.
Staff costs are currently half our costs, a £15 minimum wage is actually more than £15 an hour for the company, because you have to add:
- 12.07% holiday
- Sick pay
- Maternity pay if and when required
- National insurance
- Pension contributions
These costs would mean the shop loses money because remember, energy costs are up, rates are up, regulations are up.
Now you can pass these costs onto the consumer - that would mean charging a lot more for coffee, people won’t pay it. The likes of Starbucks and Costa can, because they have economies of scale. The independent doesn’t.
Now the little socialist will say well this is your fault, if you can’t run a business that can afford to pay its staff properly, but the little socialist has never run a business and does not understand the dynamics.
Now I could pay some staff off and fill those hours myself or reduce us to one staff member during certain periods - but this proves the point that a minimum wage costs jobs.
There was a time when these jobs were done by kids, perhaps on the weekend, paid a lower wage, no holiday and no silly employment rights. Perhaps they were even paid cash. The dynamic worked and small businesses like this could operate. It was also a great first job. Sadly now it isn’t worth employing entitlement youngsters at this level of pay.
So alas, I don’t need the stress, the business would close, a number of jobs would be lost.
Economics is about understanding these dynamics, no vibes.
The cost of living is not solved through passing on inflation to the business, it is solved by ending high inflation and creating prosperity. This is what socialists don’t understand, they can’t create prosperity, they can only destroy it.