Lippy730

Senior Investment Analyst. An older millennial, fundamental oriented, value first, truth fan, striving for success. Patience...

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

Year end assessment.

Fed sacrificing the perception of a good economy at the cost of ever increasing inflation off of ridiculous high inflation. Another year with higher than 2% inflation with no end in sight.

[Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk]

Year-end assessment.

The economy surprised just about every one in 2023 on the upside. I give a lot of credit my colleagues who argued that a soft landing was possible and even probable, although the Fed is still not quite done. That said, I don’t know anyone who expected quite what we saw in 2023, which included a sharp acceleration in growth, despite the most aggressive credit tightening by the Federal Reserve since the 1980s. Indeed, many who argued a soft landing also pushed back against the Fed.

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@Yumslef The government will be forced to either drastically cut spending or devalue the national currency, burning through investor savings with inflation. How is this a question? Both parties show no capacity in drastically cutting spending. Devaluing the currency/inflation comes first

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@NickTimiraos “Is inflation high because of one-off shocks such as tariffs and a war, or because the economy is simply running too hot?”

Or is structural core inflation too sticky without a meaningful decline in the economy?

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Different presidents. Different parties. Same direction.

More money printing. More debt. Higher prices.

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@WarrenPies Yes, there is a vote, but Warsh leads the vote and both he and Trump want cuts. Good luck betting on a hike.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed spent years telling us 2% inflation was the goal.

But since January 2020, CPI has risen at a 4.0% annualized rate and is now 13% above a 2% inflation trend.

That’s not "price stability." It’s a massive failure of monetary policy.

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@AnnaEconomist And we still have an inflation problem. What should be done?

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@NickTimiraos He’s another Arthur Burns. He’s a failure. Call it like it is

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Dollar tumbles to a fresh 4-year low after President Trump says the US Dollar is "doing great" and he is not concerned about its decline.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Most people don't realize what Trump just said:

For 12+ months, the US Dollar has been in a sharp decline, falling -10% in 2025 in its worst year since 2017.

Minutes ago, for the first time, President Trump commented on the decline in the USD:

"The value of the Dollar is great," Trump said.

This immediately sent the US Dollar another -1% lower, to its lowest level since February 2022.

Why?

It’s a clear signal that President Trump is willing to tolerate a weaker Dollar to push rates lower and boost US exports.

Own assets or be left behind.

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. Dollar has now fallen below its 14-Year Support Level 🚨🚨🚨

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

DOLLAR HITS MULTIYEAR LOWS

The U.S. dollar dropped 0.8% Tuesday, nearing its lowest level in nearly four years and marking its worst four-day decline since April. Speculation rose after the Treasury signaled potential support for the yen. Japan’s finance minister said it could act in forex markets if needed, while the dollar fell sharply versus the yen, euro, pound, and franc.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

According to the US government, US Consumer Prices rose 37% over the past 10 years. The actual number is likely much higher than this. There's no "deflation" in the US because we are constantly printing money and running deficits - don't believe anyone telling you otherwise.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Gold is up 9% in the first three weeks of 2026, and up 75% in the past 12 months.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Consumer Prices in the US rose 4.5% per year over the last 5 years and over 24% in total.

2% inflation is a myth.

The Fed should be hiking rates this year, not cutting.

Video: https://t.co/PRaBCbOXLs

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%.

They've now cut 175 bps and the 30-year is above 4.9%.

The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed.

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@charliebilello This would be cost averaging 2% and Powell unfortunately communicated at Jackson Hole last year that they will no long cost average. They will blow inflation way high and then commit to two percent from there smh.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Monetary policy should be on hold until the 12% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having an inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed should not be cutting rates at all this year.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Producer Prices in the US rose 4.7% per year over the last 5 years and over 26% in total.

2% inflation is a myth.

The Fed should be hiking rates, not cutting.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The US Inflation Rate (CPI) ended 2025 at 2.7%, the 58th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target level. The last time inflation was this high for this long? 1997, when the Fed Funds Rate was over 5%. The Fed should be hiking interest rates, not cutting.

[Lippy730 @Lippy730]

@unseen1_unseen Yes and with this realization, long rates will move much higher impacting the record levels of debt and leverage. The confusion between growth and weakness was holding things together.