Kenneth Fodnestøl

Liquidity & regime-based market research -
Crypto • HTF • Capital allocation -
Proprietary frameworks only -
No signals -
Liquidity Regime Oscillator.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

📈 BTC Update

My indicator's blue zone has now pushed above 98 on the 1D chart, and a green dot is produced once it crosses back below 97.5. Historically, that's an area where I start paying very close attention for potential reversals.

I'm considering slowly scaling into longs soon, but I want to see a bit more confirmation first.

Originally, I was hoping we'd flush all the way into the Golden Pocket, but for now BTC continues to hold above monthly support, which is noteworthy considering the size of this selloff.

On the 4H timeframe, things get a bit messy:

🔹 Regular bullish divergence
🔹 Hidden bearish divergence

Both are currently overlapping, which makes it difficult to determine which signal deserves more weight.

Normally:

• Hidden divergences are best used for continuation setups.
• Regular divergences tend to be stronger reversal signals.

The interesting part is that both scenarios could make sense here.

We're sitting at a major support area after an aggressive capitulation move, which favors the bullish divergence thesis. At the same time, the broader trend is still down, which gives the hidden bearish divergence some credibility as well.

For now I'm staying patient and letting price reveal its hand.

✅ Monthly support holds = cautiously bullish.

❌ Monthly support breaks = Golden Pocket likely comes into play.

As always, HTF first.
#BTC #Crypto

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@benjamincowen This shit looks to accurate. Can it really be this easy?
I think so..
Step 1: Lokk for capitaltion(Slow bleeding price) near October.
Step 2: Start to buy(DCA)✅️

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

Boom📉

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

I see alot of cherrypicking on posts when it comes to the BTC chart overlaid on the Wall St. Cheat Sheet.
Most starting at the 49k mark after it had been on 74k for a new ath.
I would argue that this is incorrect.

This is the Psychology sheet of a complete cycle.
The cycle did not start at 49k in september of 2024. It started at 16k in january 2023. Witch puts us at the Denial phase of the cycle.

#BTC #WALLSTREETCHEATSHEET #CRYPTO

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@Vivek4real_ Its called a bear market. Priced go down in bear markets

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

Where have all the bulls gone? My feed was flooded with bullish posts a few weeks ago, and people were shitting on @benjamincowen.. Where are they now??
#Bitcoin #FourYearCycle

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

Imma just leave this here like a "I told you so" reminder✌️

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

If this chart wasn’t inverted, most traders would probably call this a textbook long setup.

But it is inverted.

Which means what you’re actually looking at is:

●A break of structure
●A retest of previous support/resistance and Ancored VWAP from ATH
●A very clean rejection setup.

People often struggle to remove bias when looking at BTC charts because price is emotionally anchored to “up only”.

But flip the chart upside down and suddenly the structure becomes much easier to read.

To me, this looks far more like a bearish retest than the start of a new bullrun.

But I guess we'll see📊

The lines are a standard Fibonacci Retracement tool pulled from the 2022 bear market low to 2025 ATH.

#BTC #fouryearcycle #Crypto

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@benjamincowen I'll keep bearposting untill October while you spend time with your newborn😃 Congrats!

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@howell_tra39812 The broader structure is already bearish as i shown in the second pic. We have not made a higher high, or a higher low and are currently in and in a HTF downtrend, in a lower high.
Shorter timeframe just broke bearish again after a short bullish rally.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@thesoubr @Peter_thoc It is not about outthinking AIs and trading algos. It is all about finding liquidity and fair value. Then position yourself accordingly.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

I guess the bullrun wasn't back at all. At least, its not looking good atm
BTC did it. Now its time for USDT Dominance to do the same.

•Cup and Handle
•Bullflag
•Elliot Wave.

USDT.D is currently breaking out of a higher timeframe bullflag during its "Handle" Formation in a Cup & Handle.

If this acctually plays out then we can expect much lower targets for BTC than the previous low at 60k.

40k is my current target✅️

#BTC #USDTD

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@MatthewHyland_ Idk man. This seems very likely to me.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

To be honest the 6th of October 2025 top was also just as obvious. So why didn't everybody profit of it? Cause no one believed it would happen.
And that is the case for the October 2026 bottom aswell. I see a few people believing in it. But most of my feed atleast is calling the four year cycle followers dumbasses and they have all turned bullish. I also see alot more engagement on the bulls posts than on the guys beliving we will continue dropping to October. So yeah, sentiment seems to have shifted and the majority are bullish. Even tho we havent event invalidated the downtrend. We could simply be in the making of a lower high. Yet everybody is shitting on people following the four year cycle.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@benjamincowen I answered 60k, even tho I think up first. But I don't think it'll reach 90k at all. 83-84k to tap that 0.382 then down we go.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

Yessir📈

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

I think BTC is due for a little push today and maybe several days to tap 79.9-80k again. Don't get me wrong, I dont think the Bullrun is back by any means. I just think that tradeable patterns do matter on shorter timeframes aswell. Time will tell.

USDT Dominance is at the highs of its bullflag channel. This eighter rejects for a bit to give us a small push in BTC, or it breaks out and sends BTC down to new lows..

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

Looking at strictly the USDT.D it looks really similar ti BTC as it sweeped its 2021 high.
USDT.D has rejected of its 2023 high ans is currently making a bullflag that also function as the Handle in a Cup & Handle pattern.
I think USDT.D will top out at around 14-15% in October.

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@katyXBT Yes

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

In September I called the top on BTC at 115k, just a few weeks before topping out at 126k.
Why?
●HTF Trendline
●Close to perfect inverse Head & Shoulders.

Now did I know that this was gonna be the Cycle top? No, but I could smell a deep correctiom coming.

USDT.D is currently making bullish signals again, 8n the higher timeframe it looks to be making what is known as a Cup & Handle formation. And the handle part is actually forming a bullflag.

Now where have we seen this play out recently? Oh thats right, BTC. Right before it shot up to new ATH's. So can we expect USDT.D to do the same? Absolutely.
#BTC #USDTD

[Kenneth Fodnestøl @LiquidityRegime]

@baglord69 Why tf would you go long when USDT.D is in the making of a bullflag? USDT.D 📈 means down for Crypto..
I think its justva matter of time before this breaks out to set a new ATH.