List Metrics

NCAA March Madness statistical analysis in a bubble. Data for rankings derived only from previous March Madness tournaments. Inquiries: [email protected]

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Picks for march madness today based off of my rating system

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Bet 1 ✅… barely, but not really. I had these teams as super close in my rating points (561 vs 554) so alternate line for south carolina state, because it gave better odds at +3.5 of -165, seemed like a safe bet.

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Mostly follow Vegas’s lines there’s some value in alternate spreads and maybe Creighton ML

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Ratings for todays games

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@DelaneyLaw5957 Any close game like that is bound to be good. Home field is just such an advantage in college basketball compared to other sports.

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Wow what a game UCLA held close until they didn’t, but wow, that Purdue crowd was rocking.

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Score of the game:
Ucla: 35
Purdue:37
List Metrics Tournament Strength:
#25 Purdue
#26 UCLA

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Atlantic Sun Tournament Predictions: Most likely upsets, [North Florida over Austin Peay] and [Eastern Kentucky over Jacksonville]

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Goal is to have this metric system up and running with daily updates. I found a good API online for it so hopefully that will be coming soon.

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@Stultz5Stultz Kentucky got the win away. These metrics are based off neutral court games in the tournament. A win is a win on the road especially in the hostile SEC.

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Kentucky -2.5 seems like a fairly safe pick tonight.

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Texas A&M being weak was something that could’ve been seen. I had them as my 38/51 teams projected to be in the field. Vanderbilt as 47/51. Come March it isn’t necessarily about how good a team is, but about how weak the teams they are playing are.

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Utah State ML and St. John’s -6.5 seems pretty advantageous as well.

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Vanderbilt winning at the moment, Auburn dominating, and Michigan State winning a close one comes at no surprise. Texas A&M is very weak for how high they are projected.

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I may be missing something, but Gonzaga seems like the best sleeper for the tournament right now.

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@JohnBishop71 Creighton and UConn last year were elite teams. I don’t think the big east has an upper elite team this year, maybe St. John’s.

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@JohnBishop71 The Big East compared to last year is far weaker. Creighton and UConn for example are not nearly as good metric or eye test wise. St. John’s is a good team, but multiple big ten teams look to be the same strength.

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Houston had around ≈150 tournament strength compared to Texas Tech heading into this game

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NO. 4 HOUSTON GETS REVENGE ‼️

The Cougars get their 20th win in the last 21 games, avenging a loss against No. 10 Texas Tech 🐾

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(4) Houston -2.5 vs (10) Texas Tech [≈+150 rating points] and (14) Michigan -1.5 vs (50) Nebraska [≈+500 rating points] were both easy picks based off the 51 team field put together today. While both may have struggled a bit due to playing away. Rankings held strong.

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Last year’s top 20 March Madness tournament strength teams. (out of order numbers is due to updated statistical weighting for this years rating system)