We're launching Sleuth today.
The intelligence platform for biopharma's highest-stakes decisions, in use at top companies in the world.
To celebrate, we broke down the Chinese landscape: 18K+ assets & a map of the strategic white space. RT + comment "Sleuth" for access.
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🧵 Q3 Biotech Catalysts: A Deep Dive into High-Impact Readouts 🚀
The third quarter of 2025 is poised to be a pivotal period for the biotech sector, with numerous critical clinical trial readouts and regulatory decisions on the horizon. This thread offers a professional overview of @statnews Biotech Scorecard for Q3, highlighting events with significant potential impact for patients and the industry.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Rep. (USTR) has confirmed that pharmaceuticals are exempt from BOTH the 10% base rate tariff plus additional reciprocal tariffs. Small ray of hope for biotech (for now). $XBI $BBC
FDA turmoil is creating huge uncertainty for biotech... so much institutional knowledge is being lost... and upheaval is never good for productivity.
One of the most challenging aspects of this uncertainty is it's not clear (at least to me) what the direction of travel will be for the regulation of new medicines... the "new" FDA could evolve into either a tougher FDA for new patented pharma/biotech drug approvals, or will it be an FDA with far lower standards for new "medicines"?
Several senior FDA leaders have obviously left, including some controversial ones. In a number of high profile recent drug approvals, these leaders lowered standards of approval - and decided to override more skeptical or conservative FDA reviewers and biostatisticians. Those may have been right decisions, or not. That's a debate for another time. But will the new FDA leadership be even more flexible about drug approvals, or more stringent? Will efficacy and safety data standards for Pharma/Biotech drugs go up or down? Will they override more or will they follow biostats/reviewer recommendations more in the future? Unclear to me.
One observation: over the past decade, the FDA has gotten tougher for new clinical program starts (INDs). The vast majority of our emerging biotechs start their clinical work outside the US (in Australia, EU, UK, China, etc). Will new leadership exacerbate this stringency (in their dislike of patented biopharma drugs), or will they open up the FDA to accepting more early clinical innovation?
The juxtaposition of being anti- "Big Pharma"/anti-science but also wanting less gov't intrusion into patient choices and pushing new medicines (including many flavors of snake oil) to the market... just creates more uncertainty as to how this evolves. Because less regulation should mean more Big Pharma drug approvals.
If FDA approval standards and stringency go down, we may see a flood of new "drugs" in 2-3 years. In this scenario, lots of unsafe or ineffective agents could come to market. In this case, I expect (hope) that insurance/payors step up and create new data-driven health technology assessments for their own approvals (like what happened with Aduhelm). This likely creates a much higher "second hurdle" for the industry.
If FDA approval standards for pharmaceuticals go up (or the new FDA leadership listens more to risk-averse biostats/reviewers than in the past), then patients will see fewer new medicines in the US and other geographies may capture the leadership on innovation.
Lots of questions about where we're heading...
One thing, though, is sure: regulatory uncertainty isn't going away any time soon. And investors (and companies) generally hate uncertainty.
1/ 🏦 Biotech M&A in 2025: Pharma’s Bargain-Hunting Season
For biotech investors, 2025 is a mix of reckoning and opportunity. A wave of distressed M&A is sweeping the sector, with cash-loaded pharma giants scooping up struggling biotech firms at what often feel like fire-sale prices.
These “fire-sale takeouts” reveal a clear trend: Big Pharma is leveraging its financial muscle to grab promising biotech assets at deep discounts.
The latest examples?
📌 Jazz Pharmaceuticals ($JAZZ) x Chimerix ($CMRX) – $935M
📌 Sun Pharma x Checkpoint Therapeutics ($CKPT) – $355M
📌 Bristol Myers Squibb ($BMY) x 2seventy bio ($TSVT) – $286M
Let’s break these deals down and see what they signal for biotech investors.
* So far * "JPM dealmaking" appears to be ... venture financing?
Some $1.9 billion in biotech investment has been announced since Monday across the 23 VC firms BioPharma Dive tracks, including 5 Series As worth more than $100M:
https://t.co/8oxNzTpeFq
🔥"Half the crap you say is BS!"
🔥"You're allowing the worst conversations with the worst people."
🔥"We are at war with a death cult that is addicted to human blood, war, slavery, death, suffering, and misery. And it's a war on a whole other level."
American treasure @therealroseanne appeared on @PiersUncensored and gave her Biblical perspective on the war against Jihad in Gaza.
I adore this woman.
Full video ⬇️
Generalists coming back into biotech according to Leerink (based on both recent filings and deal participation). Mutual funds most active in larger deals or companies they already hold. Healthcare specialists still key to getting deals done (still loving those PIPEs). $XBI
I'm completely non-political, but this is bullshit
Student loan forgiveness rewards bad decision making
I took out a $160,000 student load a decade ago
I saved every penny I made to pay it back in full. I ended up paying over $300,000 on the loan
Now I'm getting punished because I was too responsible and paid back my loan too quickly?
I lived in a $500 a month rat and cockroach infested sun room in Boston for years to pay back this debt
If I would have instead ignored my debt and bought cars and useless luxury items I'd get a free $300,000 check?
I'm as a-political as it gets. I hate all politicians. But this is insanity and rewards the WORST behavior
Good news re the #BIOSECURE act, the House just published new text that now includes a grandfathering for existing contracts/products until Jan 1, 2032, giving the industry ~8 years to switch manufacturing partners and services. There were huge concerns that this process would be rushed. @IAmBiotech did great work on this!
Verge & Ferrer are collaborating to advance Verge’s ALS lead drug candidate, VRG50635, which is one of the first AI-discovered drugs in the clinic. The partnership underscores the CONVERGE® platform's value in identifying novel disease targets. https://t.co/zvMflGGHII
This morning I’m at a conference at the House of Lords hosted by Sheryl Sandberg about the rapes of October 7 and the likely ongoing rapes of hostages.
She started with these words that many so-called feminist groups in this country should take heed of:
‘If we can't agree that rape is wrong; that rape is not resistance, that rape is not freedom fighting - then the question becomes not what is happening in the Middle East but what is happening to our humanity?’
Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer, spoke on-stage today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He came on stage wearing masking tape with the number 104, and explained the significance of the number, as well as why he was wearing it, to world leaders and business executives in attendance.
Here is a video from his talk: https://t.co/myAMJaWFQX
#bring_hersh_home #BringThemHomeNow
“If all the Jews gathered in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said. “It is an open war until the elimination of Israel and until the death of the last Jew on earth.”
Can genocidal intent be clearer than that?
The Hague hearing is the Dreyfus affair of the 21st century.
A show of hypocrisy, antisemitism and shame.
It was Hamas who on October 7th—for no reason—attacked, burned, murdered and raped Israelis, yet it is Israel which is standing accused.
Shame on those who take part of this sham.