Little Trees Capital

Analyst at a Multi-Family Office in 🇦🇺. Don’t listen to me for investment advice & DYODD!

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@costanzakapital Brave enough for childcare operators? Seems pretty hated to me, but a sector that needs to survive in some shape?
$EVO.AX, $MFD.AX, $NDO.AX, $GEM.AX

[Respeculator @respeculator]

Hard to trade but SOTP for $FZR.AX still looks okay..

MCAP: A$32m (30cps)
Cash (ex Snowy River): A$18m
Other: A$2-A$5m
Snowy River: Minimum A$13m.... Maximum A$70m+

5.2cps dividend incoming and the rest of the cash will come too.. await the court ruling in December to see if that Snowy River deal is A$13m, A$70m or somewhere in-between..

Can read about it more here: https://t.co/WEVUxNJJv7

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

4/4
Current price is $0.0075, for that you’re buying:
$0.00417 (comes back in mid December )
+
~$0.0025 a share in cash (net cash less working capital)
+
a roll on the other assets worth ~$0.007 a share

100:1 share consolidation should help liquidity

Good enough for me!

DYODD

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

Update on $OEL.AX given there has been some news over the past couple of weeks

1/4
AU$20m return of capital announced today is clearly an indicator that the co. is/will return surplus 💰 when they can.

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

3/4
So what’s left after the AU$20m paid out in mid December?
~AU$15m in net cash (assuming US$1.5m cashflow in Sep qtr, realistic given WTI averaged >$80+)
+
~AU$35m in assets (mostly in SM71/Lighting + negative value for GC21 and zero for MBW/OBS)
-
~AU$3.6m in working capital

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$17.5m ain’t bad, particularly given that market cap was roughly that a few months ago and it is likely (less some tax) to all come back to shareholders

Now only the big brother left!

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$FZR.AX timing is interesting, maybe getting Argonaut to run around Diggers & Dealers!

https://t.co/r0DTith7NL

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@88888sAccount @TrentBuckle That’s the full tenancy list, maybe G8 fucked as well but not like the assets are worth zero either

Take a 40% haircut to the Edge, G8 assets (18% of book) and ARF still looks cheap?

Also, no new developments are gonna happen with effective rates >6.5% lol

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@88888sAccount @TrentBuckle NFP operators should be okay off tax breaks (lol)
Guardian/Affinity merging should help short-term stability (maybe not great for landlord pricing in the medium term 🤷‍♂️)
End of the day, sector needs to exist

Can’t say the same for crap office

https://t.co/VOZOd2Ny6U

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@TrentBuckle @88888sAccount Why bother when ARF trades at a 8% yield and that’s a sector that needs to exist…
Sure short-term noise with Edge, but gearing is low, all leases are triple net (no leakage) and hedging is termed until 2028ish

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

Okay, which goose bought the massive line in $FZR.AX
Welcome to the ASX

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$DBF.AX is another one for the ASX governance 💩show with:
2 creeping major shareholders + a convert note (unlisted, of course) that converts at a 10% disc. to lowest trading price over trailing 11 months
= 60% discount to reported NAV

Just put minorities out of their misery!

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@smoothinvesting Yep, can’t see how this is in any way better a straight up sale
Time for Perpetual to step up lol

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$PAC.AX proposal from River Capital at disc. to NAV is interesting
Acq price of ~8% of FUM seems generous ($RPL.AX is ~5.3% of FUM, although $L1G.AX is ~18% of FUM!)
A sneaky way for River to get access to the full $158m of cash + Abacus shares/bonds which are liquid maybe???

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

Interesting announcement from $OEL.AX. First time I’ve seen them show forward production estimates at 1P, 2P & 3P Reserves…
Combined with 2 assets being marketed now, looks like something is brewing 🤔

https://t.co/msMDx8ylZj

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@puppyeh1 Send me a DM, I might be able to help here

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

@bowtiedstocks Honestly haven’t gone through in detail, but given I live in Melb I’m pretty confident in saying that the Vic assets are not worth BV (101 Moray maybe the exception)
Also need to think about leasing spreads/incentives on renewals & impact to AFFO/distributions going forward etc.

[Little Trees Capital @LittleTreesCap]

$FZR.AX timing is interesting, maybe getting Argonaut to run around Diggers & Dealers!

https://t.co/r0DTith7NL