I have seen many analytical posts detailing why former South African president, Jacob Zuma is doing what he is doing, and what his ultimate goal is if he succeeds in his political and electoral endeavours.
The missing link in these analytical pieces is REAL information from Jacob Zuma himself or his inner circle; what we are being mostly fed are just wild guesses.
Last year I mentioned that Zuma told a delegation of visiting Zimbabweans at Nkandla that he would run as an ANC breakaway candidate.
Jacob Zuma wants to be premier of KwaZulu-Natal in a coalition deal if his plan succeeds.
He knows that he can’t be president of South Africa again, and he is not stupid to think that he can now be one.
But he keeps pushing that narrative to deceive the media and ordinary citizens into not thinking about what he really wants, KZN Premiership.
KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second biggest province by numbers after Gauteng, and it is the second biggest economy again after Gauteng.
Put differently, KZN’s economy is four times bigger than the Zimbabwean economy by Gross Domestic Product.
Zuma wants to be in charge of that KZN economy, he will be in charge of an economy which is FOUR times bigger than that of Zimbabwe if he succeeds, so it is a big deal.
He basically wants to create what the DA has in the Western Cape, and be the guy in charge, the big kahuna.
To do that, Zuma realized that he needed a political party, and that his political party needs to run for elections, but more importantly, that he also needs to run for elections himself to remain relevant.
That is why he challenged the Independent Electoral Commission’s decision to stop him from contesting in the May 29 elections.
Zuma’s hope is that his biggest scalp in KZN is the ANC, the party that he hoped in previous elections in KZN because it was his political home.
The Zulu King is also perceived to be in bed with the ANC, so Zuma wants to damage the ANC’s chances in KZN, and probably end up going into a governing coalition with the IFP, what his folks are calling the "local people coalition."
However he has left room for a very remote chance of a local alliance with a damaged but very desperate ANC to run KZN with Zuma as the Premier.
It all comes down to money, Zuma knows that this is his last chance at anything political.
Another five years is a very long period in life for a man who is 81 years old.
Another problem for the ANC in KZN came after the ANC's KwaZulu-Natal chairperson, Siboniso Duma's perceived disrespect towards the Zulu traditional Prime Minister, Thulasizwe Buthelezi, when he took the microphone away from the traditional Prime Minister who is the IFP leader and insulted him.
Politics is local, so says the political science statement of choice when explaining political outcomes.
This disrespect to the traditional Prime Minister was seen as an act of undermining the dignity of the Zulu monarchy, something that has put the King in a difficult situation, but to Zuma, he sees it as an opportunity and a campaigning tool.
More importantly, Zuma and his people are whispering a deadly question: how can the IFP want to go into bed with a political party whose provincial chairperson disrespected the Zulu monarch?
This is the Machiavellian Zuma at play, and he is good at it regardless of what we might think of him.
The ANC understood this very well that is why Siboniso Duma immediately apologised.
Zuma has people in the ANC and in IFP too, he plays the puppet master role to them because politics is local.
The DA obtained the second place in four provinces won by the ANC in the 2019 South African elections.
In KwaZulu-Natal, the Inkatha Freedom Party beat the DA to second place for the first time since 2014, but there was no MK then.
Voters are weird beings, with all the self-evident damage that Zuma caused to the South African economy and country's brand name when he was president, he still commands huge unconditional support which can be broken down into three parts:
1. Africans adore a lovable rogue.
Anyone who purports to be fighting against a perceived foreign enemy whilst masking their corruptness gets support.
Look at Mugabe, Putin, and Trump, they would win continental elections in Africa because generally our people don't read, and they generally don't apply critical thinking in their political perspectives.
Support is based on emotions and not facts and numbers, like how much did Jacob Zuma's presidency damage the South African economy?
2. Zuma is seen as a victim of those aligned with the capitalist order.
It is a mirage, but that is how he is seen especially after his jailing for contempt of court, something that many cautioned against when it was evident that it would create Jacob Zuma the martyr.
He tells his supporters that he is fighting for the blacks of South Africa, yet the biggest winner of his nine year presidency was an Indian family from Eastern Uttar Pradesh in India.
Hardly an act of Black Empowerment at all, but why allow facts to get in the way, Zuma is their hero regardless.
3. The final strand is the ethnic element which brings us to national politics when coalitions are being made if it gets to that.
Zuma is Zulu, and he will play on that in KZN, that is why he is caricaturing the ANC as "...the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa".
It means "...he is not one of us, why vote for a stranger when you have Zuma your local warrior, one of your own," so goes the reasoning when speaking to his inner circle.
In the event that the ANC needs to form a national coalition government, Zuma sees himself as a possible Kingmaker too.
So he needs to dent the ANC badly in KZN so that he can come to it, or rather it comes to him for a national governing coalition deal.
Politicians appear angry with each other in public, but privately they are talking, they always do.
Zuma is talking to ANC heavy eights, and the ANC is talking to Zuma through his chosen proxies, everyone is talking to the other sides for possible post-election deals.
These are people who have known each other for decades and ate pap from the same plate together.
What matters more to them is power and the proceeds that it brings, not the purported ideological disagreements or having the people at heart.
If Zuma or his ANC comrades with him in government had poor Black people at heart, the Guptas would not have happened, but again such facts get in the way of good propaganda that positions Zuma as a great pro-Black political player.
Zuma is like Emmerson Mnangagwa; you dismiss them at your own peril.
They are super political tacticians, and they are ruthless when they need to be, yet they do it with a smirky on the face.
Both ran security arms of their ruling parties during the struggle for independence, so they know a lot about everyone in politics!
If their tactical skills were deployed to national interest pursuits, their countries would be flourishing today with nobody going to bed on an empt stomach.
But they are just ordinary politicians; ordinary politicians care about themselves first, and on rare occasions, the country comes second if it ill further their personal interests.
So while we are looking at the national issue post-May 29, Zuma’s focus is on KZN, and he will fight to be the real political King there. The first prize is being Premier.
This move will give him significant control over a major economic powerhouse within South Africa's national economic engine room.
Zuma aims to weaken the ANC's hold on KZN, possibly forming a coalition with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) or even a damaged ANC if need be, but as long as he is in charge of such a coalition.
This plan hinges on heavily denting the ANC's strength in the province to position himself as a key player in potential national coalition negotiations.
Political elites in South Africa have survived on tenders like many African politicians, no wonder why Zuma would want to be premier of KZN, if he succeeds, it will be a new era of politics in South Africa, one that will require seat belts and helmets on.
How will the South African economy respond to all this if it comes to pass?
Check the exchange rate when it happens, the exchange rate always gives you the first economic indicator about how the world feels after elections in countries like South Africa with proper economic indicators.
South Africans will determine their political and economic fate on May 29, on that day they will determine Zuma's fate, and in so doing they will be determining their own fate too.
It will be a big day for Africa too because South Africa is the biggest and sophisticated economy in Africa, it successes or failures are tied to the whole economy.
So for the sake of the African economy, South Africa must and has to succeed, but it is South Africans who will determine that.
And much as you hate him or like him, Zuma will probably be part of that future if they trust his word.
Will it be a demotion to become Premier when he has been President, not at all, it is a political move.
The former British Prime Minister David Cameron is now the British Foreign Minister, there're may presidents too many to mention.
For Zuma, it will be about his own personal survival, economic personal survival.
We have reason to be ecstatic for once. The ladies are just what South Africans needed over months from daily dispiriting news that have come to be daily orders in Mzansi. Banyana Banyana are our pride and a good medicine for sanity at this point in our country's history!
South Africa knows precisely what happened at ESKOM, no need for another Commission of Enquiry, another expense on Taxpayers. Decisive and urgent harsh action on alleged perpetrators is what is required. Follow the money trail, recover the money and institute Treason trails!
@News24@Calvinbrytty16@JasonFelix The dump ANC could not have known this before hand and this can never be the only existing Spy operating from within. Mzansi is belongs to foreign masters. Thanks to the Liberator fighting to liberate itself from its own self.
@MorningLiveSABC The JZ Foundation with Manye as its spokesperson nothing less from their statement can be surprising. They hoped to "Shabir" us the second time. Unfortunately this medical examination is an order of Court. So we are on the lookout for another contempt.
@MorningLiveSABC So sad for South Africa that ESKOM still has people like Sikonathi refusing to face fact, hiding behind flimsy ideas of pending cases, refusing to acknowledge inappropriate morality doing business with all those implicated in ESKOM demise at taxpayers' expense!
@TheAgenda_SABC
By extension, the country is now embroiled in ANC factional battles with RET and the Zuma rented crowds flouting COVID regulations and the law with impunity. The ANC must take responsibility for what happened in Nkandla!
@The Agenda SABC
ANC Elite have compromised and put everybody's health at risk with their Zuma rented crowds. The Nkandla saga, where was the country's intelligence and security if not rendered dysfunctional. Overtime ANC has been a law unto itself with all sorts of excuses.
@TheAgenda_SABC SA needs to desist making SA whites an excuse in JZ facing ills of own doings and subverge the rule of law. Constitutional law was negotiated at CODESA by ruling party. Wilful lack of political courage dealing with apartheid crimes in the passed 27 years.
Has some just requested to be honoured with the Advocates Silk from the aspirant Presidential candidate?:
Ace Magashule and his legal team are happy with their performance of the... https://t.co/0XGMqgcHQb via @YouTube
@MorningLiveSABC
Like many, if not all public service institutions, the standard of policing in South Africa is appalling to say the least. Many are lazy, unprofessional, lack of adherence to authority and rule of law and many criminals in the service currently.
Minister Mkhize, like many of his colleagues from the ruling ANC are tarnished and have no moral integrity. This country is in trouble lest something urgently happens. Hon Holomisa is correct, South Africans MUST get together and pave a future beyond the current ruling Party.
@SAfmRadio This Mangaung municipality is a disaster. Development has been at stand still while ANC councillors continue fighting over tenders and prepared service providers where they may personally benefit. The ANC led Provincial government is aware and complacent.
@TheAgenda_SABC Received COVID SMS, disgusting arrangement as we were directed to the Universities Hospital in Bloemfontein only to be told there is no vaccine, no one knowing when it would be available as we were turn back. Absolutely disappointed!
BREAKING: Anoj Singh who was to appear at the state capture commission at 10am is still not at the venue. He is MISSING. DCJ has adjourned the proceedings till 11:30am. His legal team arrived at the commission on their own at 10:30am #StateCaptureInquiry