Logan Weaver

Modernizing investment management. Founder @surmountinvest, Owner @quantbase_, @forbes Business Council, @WBJonline 25 Under 25

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

There's an American family with 14 billionaires.

More than any family on Earth.

And they control the ENTIRE global food supply.

It's not the Waltons. It's not the Kochs.

99% of people have never heard their name.

Here's how they became the richest invisible dynasty: 🧵

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

The quant version of this is live on our automated strategy marketplace. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

THE MARKET IS PRICING CALM.

The supply chain is not.

That is the warning investors should be watching.

The New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index stayed elevated in May.

Not crisis-level.

But high enough to matter.

And the reason is obvious:

Energy disruption.

Shipping uncertainty.

Middle East conflict.

Trade routes under pressure.

Inventories that cannot be rebuilt overnight.

This is where markets often get it wrong.

Inflation does not need one giant shock to come back.

It can rebuild quietly through logistics.

Longer routes.

Higher freight costs.

Delayed cargo.

Tighter inventories.

More expensive energy.

More fragile margins.

Investors keep treating supply chain risk like a pandemic-era problem.

But global trade never became simple again.

It just became easier to ignore while stocks were going up.

That matters because the market is still priced for a clean story:

AI-led growth.

Stable supply.

Falling inflation.

A Fed that eventually cuts.

But if supply pressure stays elevated, that story gets harder to defend.

The Fed cannot cut aggressively into a new inflation impulse.

Companies cannot protect margins forever.

Consumers cannot absorb every price increase.

The market does not need another 2021 supply shock to reprice.

It only needs enough friction to keep inflation sticky.

If supply chains are still flashing pressure while stocks price perfection, what part of this rally is actually prepared for it?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

This doesn’t have to be a manual process. Automate the strategy on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

THE MARKET IS STILL PRICING RELIEF.

The Fed is starting to sound like the opposite.

That is the risk.

Investors spent months building around one assumption:

Rates eventually come down.

But that assumption is getting harder to defend.

AI investment is still running hot.

Oil is still pressuring inflation expectations.

Labor demand has not broken.

Stocks are near record highs.

And financial conditions are loose enough that the Fed may not see a reason to rescue the market at all.

This is where positioning gets dangerous.

The market does not need an immediate rate hike to reprice.

It only needs the Fed to remove the cut story.

First the dot plot changes.

Then guidance changes.

Then investors start asking the question nobody wanted to ask:

What if the next real Fed surprise is tighter policy, not easier policy?

That would hit everything priced for cheap capital returning.

Long-duration tech.

AI infrastructure.

Private credit.

Leveraged balance sheets.

Rate-sensitive consumers.

The rally has been built on growth optimism.

But if inflation stays sticky and the Fed turns more hawkish, valuation becomes the problem again.

Markets can handle higher rates when earnings are accelerating.

They struggle when everyone is already positioned for perfection.

If the Fed is not coming to help, what part of this rally is actually mispriced?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

We have systematic investment strategies built around this running live on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

🚨 THE AI TRADE JUST GOT A REALITY CHECK.

Broadcom did not collapse because AI demand disappeared.

It fell because expectations got too extreme.

That is the part investors need to understand.

The company is still forecasting massive AI chip growth.

It still sees long-term AI revenue opportunity.

It is still one of the most important infrastructure suppliers behind the boom.

And yet the stock dropped sharply after results failed to clear the market’s bar.

That is not an AI demand problem.

That is a valuation problem.

When a stock is already priced like everything has to go right, “good” is no longer good enough.

This is how crowded trades start to change character.

First, investors buy the obvious winners.

Then they pay higher and higher multiples for certainty.

Then the market starts demanding perfection.

That is where AI is now.

The buildout is real.

The revenue is real.

The infrastructure demand is real.

But the market has started treating every AI-linked company like it deserves unlimited upside with limited risk.

That is not investing.

That is narrative momentum.

Broadcom may still be a long-term winner.

But today’s move is a warning:

Even great businesses can become fragile when expectations outrun the numbers.

If AI leaders are starting to sell off on strong growth, what happens when one of them actually disappoints?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

The quant version of this is live on our automated strategy marketplace. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

THE MARKET LOOKS CALM.

Underneath, it is not.

The VIX is still low.

Indexes are still sitting near record highs.

And investors are acting like this rally is orderly.

But individual stocks are moving violently.

Dell jumped more than 30% in one session.

Marvell surged after AI enthusiasm exploded around the name.

Other large-cap tech stocks are swinging like speculative small caps.

That is the real signal.

The index is hiding the volatility.

AI is creating winners fast.

But it is also creating dispersion, crowding and fragile positioning.

This is what happens late in a powerful theme.

The headline market looks stable because a handful of winners keep carrying the weight.

But beneath the surface, capital is rotating aggressively from one AI story to the next.

That is not broad strength.

That is a market searching for the next name to justify the valuation already priced into the theme.

The danger is not just a selloff.

The danger is correlation.

When individual stocks move wildly while the index stays calm, investors start believing risk has disappeared.

It has not.

It has moved underneath the surface.

If volatility is hiding inside single stocks, what happens when it finally comes back to the whole market?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

This doesn’t have to be a manual process. Automate the strategy on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

🚨 THE MARKET IS STILL TRADING LIKE OIL IS A SIDE STORY.

It is not.

Brent is closing in on $100.

The Middle East conflict is escalating.

U.S. stocks just pulled back from record highs.

And investors are still trying to hold two opposing views at once:

AI will keep growth alive.

Oil will not restart inflation.

That is a dangerous setup.

Because oil does not only hit energy traders.

It hits consumers.

Airlines.

Shipping.

Manufacturing.

Margins.

Inflation expectations.

Treasury yields.

Fed policy.

The market keeps treating geopolitical risk like a headline problem.

But energy is a balance sheet problem.

If crude stays elevated, the pressure moves through the system fast.

Higher input costs.

Weaker discretionary spending.

Less room for rate cuts.

More pressure on leveraged companies.

More stress on every strategy built around cheap capital returning.

That is where the risk sits.

The AI trade can keep carrying sentiment.

But it cannot repeal the economics of higher energy costs.

Markets do not break because investors missed the obvious story.

They break because investors convinced themselves the obvious story would not matter.

If oil pushes back above $100, what part of this rally is actually priced for it?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

We have systematic investment strategies built around this running live on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

AI IS NO LONGER JUST MOVING STOCKS.

It is starting to move the bond market.

That is the part investors need to understand.

The first phase of the AI trade was simple:

Buy the chipmakers.

Buy the cloud giants.

Buy the companies selling the picks and shovels.

But now the buildout has moved into a much larger system.

Corporate debt.

Treasury yields.

Interest-rate swaps.

Private infrastructure capital.

Data center financing.

Real estate.

Power demand.

Major tech companies are borrowing at massive scale to fund AI infrastructure.

Meta and Oracle have already raised around $250 billion in debt globally this year.

Annual AI-related capex could move toward $1 trillion by next year.

That starts to look less like a tech trend and more like a private-sector stimulus program.

The market keeps talking about AI as a productivity story.

But before productivity shows up, the financing has to happen.

That financing has a cost.

And if AI investment keeps pulling capital into long-duration infrastructure, it can add pressure to yields at the exact moment investors are hoping rates come down.

This is the contradiction sitting under the rally:

AI may raise future earnings.

But it may also raise today’s cost of capital.

The theme can be right.

The market pricing can still be vulnerable.

If AI needs the bond market to keep funding the boom, what happens when the bond market starts demanding a higher price?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

Sign up here: https://t.co/jQnvbwfjdg

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

BREAKING: 10 days into the job, Trump is already throwing his new Fed Chair under the bus.

The market priced his confirmation as a guaranteed rate cut.

Hours after the swearing-in, Trump was on Truth Social demanding cuts that aren't coming.

Here's why the entire 2026 rate cut thesis just broke:

For most of 2026, Wall Street traded on one assumption.

Trump replaces Powell with his own guy.

The Fed delivers the cuts the President has been demanding for two years, and risk assets rip.

Every long-duration asset on the board priced it in.

Warsh's Senate confirmation passed 54-45 in May.

The closest Fed Chair vote in modern history.

The political fight was taken as proof Warsh would be loyal to the man who picked him.

Then everyone read his actual Senate testimony:

Warsh has been a public critic of the Fed's bloated balance sheet for over a decade.

His pitch was what he called "regime change" at the Fed.

He's philosophically closer to Paul Volcker than to a yes-man.

Volcker pushed rates above 19% in 1981 to break inflation.

Wall Street hated him at the time.

History celebrates him today.

That's the model Warsh has been studying for years.

Not the easing playbook Trump wants.

Then the macro data turned on him before he even took office.

The May 28th PCE reading was the highest in nearly three years.

WTI crude jumped almost 6% on June 1st to $92.54 a barrel.

Iran had just suspended indirect talks with the US.

Tariff costs from Trump's own February executive orders are still working through goods prices.

Sticky inflation from policy decisions Trump made himself.

Warsh walked into the worst possible setup.

Hot inflation, an energy shock, and a President demanding the one move that would make inflation worse.

Yesterday, June 2nd, Trump went back on Truth Social to attack Warsh for not cutting fast enough.

10 days into the job.

From his own hand-picked Chair.

This is where retail investors get trapped.

The narrative all year was simple.

Trump installs his guy. Cheap money returns. Buy everything that benefits.

That trade required three things to be true at once.

1. Warsh has to be a puppet.
2. Inflation has to cooperate.
3. There has to be political room to cut.

Right now, zero of those three are true.

Markets have already priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely.

A rate hike by year-end is now considered more likely than a cut.

Retail positioning hasn't caught up.

Most portfolios are still leaning long-duration tech and rate-sensitive assets that work in a cutting cycle and bleed in a holding cycle.

Institutional positioning has caught up months ago.

Berkshire sits on a record $397 billion in cash.

Hedge funds rotated into commodities and short-duration.

The S&P sits at all-time highs while the smart money is positioned for the cuts not arriving.

A Fed Chair who believes in inflation credibility doesn't cut into rising prices regardless of who appointed him.

The investors who win stopped trying to predict the next Fed move years ago.

The market will reprice when it stops pretending otherwise.

You can guess which week that happens.

Or you can run a system that doesn't have to guess.

Surmount automates your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not political headlines...

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

The quant version of this is live on our automated strategy marketplace. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

THE MARKET THINKS AI IS DEFLATIONARY.

That may be true eventually.

But right now, AI is creating an inflation problem.

Not in theory.

In the real economy.

Data centers need power.

Semiconductors need memory.

Cloud providers need software.

Hyperscalers need land, cooling, labor and financing.

The AI boom is not floating above the economy.

It is competing for the same physical resources that drive costs higher.

That is the part investors keep skipping.

Everyone wants the productivity story.

Fewer people want to price the infrastructure story.

AI may eventually make companies more efficient.

But before that happens, it is forcing one of the largest capex cycles in modern market history.

More chips.

More electricity.

More data centers.

More debt.

More pressure on supply chains.

That matters because the Fed is still fighting inflation.

If AI investment keeps heating up prices before productivity gains cool them down, the market’s rate-cut story gets weaker.

This is the contradiction sitting under the rally:

Investors are using AI to justify higher valuations.

But AI may also be one reason rates stay higher for longer.

The technology can be revolutionary.

The trade can still be mispriced.

If AI adds inflation before it removes it, how much of this market is built on the wrong timeline?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

This doesn’t have to be a manual process. Automate the strategy on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

THE LABOR MARKET JUST MADE THE FED’S JOB HARDER.

Markets want rate cuts.

The data keeps pushing back.

U.S. job openings jumped to their highest level in nearly two years.

That is not what investors want to see when stocks are sitting near record highs and inflation is still above target.

A strong labor market sounds good.

But for markets, it creates a problem:

More hiring demand.

More wage pressure.

More consumer resilience.

Less room for the Fed to cut.

That is the tension investors keep underpricing.

The market wants the perfect setup:

AI-led growth.

Cooling inflation.

Stable oil.

A Fed that can ease.

But if job openings are rising again, the rate-cut story gets weaker.

And if the Fed stays restrictive for longer, every expensive asset has to justify its price without help from easier money.

Long-duration tech.

Leveraged balance sheets.

Private credit.

Rate-sensitive consumers.

The risk is not that the economy is collapsing.

The risk is that it remains too firm for the policy pivot investors already priced in.

This is where markets get uncomfortable.

Good economic news can become bad market news when valuations are already stretched.

If labor demand keeps surprising higher, what part of this rally is actually priced for no Fed rescue?

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

We have systematic investment strategies built around this running live on Surmount. https://t.co/jAXjWbIrmx

[Logan Weaver @LogWeaver]

🚨 THE AI TRADE IS ENTERING A NEW PHASE.

First, investors bought the chipmakers.

Then they bought the cloud giants.

Now they are being asked to finance the buildout itself.

Anthropic has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO.

Alphabet is reportedly seeking to raise $80 billion for AI infrastructure.

STMicroelectronics just surged after lifting its data center revenue outlook.

This is no longer just an earnings story.

It is becoming a capital markets story.

The market is learning that AI does not scale on hype alone.

It needs chips.

Data centers.

Power.

Cooling.

Debt.

Equity.

And a massive amount of investor belief.

That is where the risk changes.

When AI was a growth story, investors could focus on revenue.

When AI becomes a financing story, investors have to focus on cost of capital, dilution, duration and returns.

The winners may still be enormous.

But the market is now moving from “who benefits from AI?” to “who pays for it?”

That is a much harder question.

The AI buildout is real.

The demand is real.

But when every company starts raising capital around the same theme, investors need to separate infrastructure from euphoria.

If AI is now reshaping equity and debt markets at the same time, what happens when capital stops being cheap?