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Montreal have lost four of their last five and sit fifteenth with little form to hide behind. Charlotte aren't flying either, but at home against a side shipping goals this freely, the logic points one way. #MLS #Charlotte #CarabaoCup

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Charlotte v CF Montreal, 28/10, 23:30 at Bank of America Stadium. Fifth against fifteenth, but the number that matters is defensive: Montreal have conceded 2.3 a game in their last ten and haven't kept a clean sheet. #MLS #Charlotte

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Charlotte create at 1.35 xG, Montreal concede like a team that can't stop the bleeding — 2.3 a game, zero clean sheets in ten. Both sides go into games stretched: Charlotte 70% over 2.5, Montreal 50%. This has goals written through it.

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Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati, 28/10, 23:30 at Nu Stadium. Miami sit 2nd and control games (57.1% possession) but their defence leaks goals open — this one's shaping up loose at both ends. #MLS #FcCincinnati

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Miami's form has wobbled — two losses in their last five, including a 0-2 at New York Red Bulls — while Cincinnati have been leaky throughout. Points gap says Miami should win; chance quality says don't expect a shutout. #MLS #FcCincinnati

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Revs score 1.8 and leak 1.5 per game, 80% of their last 10 going over 2.5. Red Bulls carry the better xG (1.98) but score less — 1.1 — and have won three straight H2H trips to Boston before this one. Expect goals, not caution. #MLS #NewEnglandRevolution

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New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls, 28/10, 23:30, Boston Stadium. Third against ninth, but this fixture rarely plays to the table — 3.6 goals a game in the last 10 meetings. #MLS #NewEnglandRevolution

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12th v 14th, four points apart — this one's about avoiding a bad run, not climbing. Penso's card average (4.2) suggests a niggly edge too. Expect goals, expect some chaos. #MLS #AtlantaUnitedFc

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New York City FC v Atlanta United FC, 28/10, 23:30, Citi Field. Both mid-table, both leaking goals — the numbers say this is a game neither defence can be trusted to control. #MLS #AtlantaUnitedFc

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NYC score 1.0 and concede 1.3 per game lately; Atlanta score 1.4 but concede 1.8. Atlanta's xG (1.47) edges NYC's (1.17), but neither side's defence backs it up. 70% of Atlanta's last 10 went over 2.5.

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Toronto sit 10th, DC 13th — three points apart but both drifting, Toronto winless in two of their last three, DC without a win in three. Expect goals at both ends again. #MLS #TorontoFc #CarabaoCup

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Toronto FC v DC United, 28/10, 23:30 at BMO Field. Two sides who can't stop shipping goals meeting at the wrong end of the season. #MLS #TorontoFc

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The numbers explain why. Toronto concede 2.2 a game, DC score just 1.0 but still leak 1.9. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of recent games for both sides — this one looks built to keep that run going.

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Palmeiras sit second on 66 points, five clear wins in their last five telling you the form is real. Santos, eighth on 45, need the occasional shootout to stay entertaining. The table says one thing, the pattern of games says keep it tight. #BrasileiraoSerieA #Palmeiras

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Santos v Palmeiras, 28/10, 22:30 at Urbano Caldeira. Santos sit mid-table and leak enough to be interesting; Palmeiras have conceded 0.6 a game and keep turning up. This is a collision of two different footballing philosophies. #SantosFC #Palmeiras

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Palmeiras' numbers read like control: 1.96 xG, 53.3% possession, six clean sheets in ten. Santos create enough at 1.57 xG but their defence (1.2 conceded) keeps games stretched — 70% of their matches go over 2.5 goals.