LogicalNumbers

Retired CPA in ND. 42 years in various areas of corporate taxation. Yield junkie since 2003. Political junkie since 1968.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@aeberman12 "... the most strategically powerful country on earth? Control Hormuz & you control the world."

What nonsense. Iran has always controlled the SoH. They never asserted their control B4 b/c they were quietly enriching uranium / building nuclear bombs beneath the world's radar.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@aeberman12 Nope. No catechism here. I have merely paid attention to real world events for the past 58 years. Your juvenile, pejorative terms for Trump's attempts at national security do you no favors in your attempts to be an objective analyst of data. Skip politics & stick to what you know

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@aeberman12 No. What also is different is a hugely weakened Iran militarily & economically... to say nothing of their uranium being buried under a mountain of rock & their nuke program being set back by at least 5 - 10 years, perhaps much longer. Mullah leadership vaporized, IRGC in control.

[𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 🇮🇷 ✡︎ @NiohBerg]

In 1979, the mullahs tortured the Shah's favourite horse to death.

The horse, Azar, was paraded in the streets. They broke his legs, cut his tongue out, and then shot him in the head in front of a large crowd.

Iran is occupied by demons from hell.

[Tee Rickey @OCRichardP]

"Life is hard...but it's harder when you're stupid."
~Sen. John Kennedy

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland Not surprised. It's the new normal. SoH not opening up anytime soon... very possibly never to pre-war status. Iran has more leverage than pre-war. Trump badly under-estimated IRGC and had no plan for this. I expect oil will trade $85 - $95 as new normal unless real war resumes.

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

Just a reminder that the ONLY Republican running for Mecklenburg County (Charlotte NC) District 1 dropped out of the race...

...BECAUSE NOT A SINGLE PERSON WAS ARRESTED FOR FIRING SHOTS AT HIS HOME WHILE HIS WIFE AND KIDS WERE INSIDE!!!!!

Local police SPECIFICALLY CONFIRMED the attack was targeted at Aaron Marin.

Bullet holes can be seen in trees, cars, mailbox, and his kid's basketball hoop. Marin's ENTIRE FAMILY was forced to leave their home and Aaron says they live in, "constant fear."

He says his kids no longer even feel safe to play outside and they are moving now.

CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN WHY ZERO MAINSTREAM MEDIA OUTLET COVERED THIS??????!!!!!!

REPUBLICANS ARE LITERALLY BEING SHOT AT AND THERE IS SILENCE FROM THE MEDIA!!!!!!

WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE?!!!!!!

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland Yesterday's SOFR rate was 3.62%.... ~FF rate. Does anyone really think the Fed is going to raise rates? I wouldn't bet on that even in the face of rising inflation. $40T in debt says they won't.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯

[GardinerIslandCapital @GardinerIsland]

https://t.co/6M2Y73Ck7b

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland @KobeissiLetter @realDonaldTrump @SenateGOP With what? Hell, Trump isn't on the ballot in November but @SenateGOP is. Voters will show their anger over Iran deal / Trump accomplishing nothing in Iran war by voting against @SenateGOP @HouseGOP. Trump caves / gets nothing & mid-terms are a GOP shit-show.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland @KobeissiLetter @realDonaldTrump If that's true @realDonaldTrump will out-do Obama in funding Iran's missile program + uranium enrichment program. Never thought Trump would cave to Iran. He is scared shit-less of high gas prices.... but those prices are now baked in the cake. Nothing he does will change them.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland I'll go with $XOM and $CVX. SoH isn't opening anytime soon and with ~14 mpd shut-in it's not rocket science to see where price goes once current inventories are gone. SoH will never be the international waterway it was B/4 war unless Trump / Israel decimate IRGC leadership.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland @ericnuttall You saw Piper Sandler's forecast of oil prices. The oil companies know. When inventories hit bottom that's when the SHTF and prices go up 50% from here.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@Geiger_Capital Hell, if I had Thiel's billions I'd also be moving to Argentina. They have a future with Miliei. The US is a mosquito looking for a windshield.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@GardinerIsland She's wrong. The WTI futures contracts are not Cushing. I follow the oil prices at Cushing and those prices are way higher than the futures prices. Here are the daily prices oil has been trading at Cushing.

https://t.co/TNjeH1N0Cy

[John Fitzgerald Kennedy Jr. @MrJohnJnr]

🚨 ALERT: In a jaw-dropping declaration, House GOP Chairwoman Lisa McClain goes nuclear on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, stating, "Let’s be clear: Tim Walz has stolen money FROM American kids and given it to Somali fraudsters. House Republicans will hold him accountable."

FOLLOW ME, THE NEXT DROP WILL BE SHOCKING

[Mike Bales 🫡🇺🇸 @MikeBales]

I don’t care if this offends you, but Obama is the root cause of a lot of the hate and division in our country today!

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

cc: @GardinerIsland @GeorgeManiereg @Dollar_Bill_100

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry.

The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history.

USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves.

The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk.

When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.

[LogicalNumbers @LogicalNumbers]

@BlacklionCTA I've been following his comments that get into the news. Based on his interpretation of the Bible the guy is very scary. I will be shocked it TX votes for him over Paxton.