LokiΞdge

Pioneering Investor | Skilled in the latest market cycle | In-Depth Insights
Step into the world of maximizing profits through crypto trading with me 👇

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

On average, #Bitcoin's price increases by 88% in Q4

Currently, $BTC is priced at $65,399

Will history repeat itself as we head into Uptober?

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Despite China’s 2021 ban on #Bitcoin mining and trading, its miners still control 55% of the global hashrate, while the U.S holds 40%

Rumors suggest China may lift the $BTC ban by late 2024, potentially shaking up the global market 🚀

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

This move will inject around 1 Trillion Yuan (~ $141.7B) of long-term liquidity into China’s financial markets

And the ratio could be reduced further by 0.25% to 0.5%

Today, China Stocks Rally Further on PBOC Boost 👀

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

The PBOC has cut the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks, which is positive for the global money supply 🚀

1️⃣ Lower reserve ratio → banks have more funds to lend → boosting the money supply in the economy

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

2️⃣ With more liquidity, banks can offer lower interest rates → easier for individuals and businesses to borrow → stimulating economic activity

Increased borrowing for investment benefits financial markets → Bullish signal 🚀

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

It’s clear that the market knows how to shake out weak hands, only to pave the way for the next sustainable growth cycle!

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Check this out

This is a common contradiction we often see in the market

Long-term holders (orange line) tend to buy and accumulate $BTC for their bags

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Meanwhile

Short-term holders (green line) are more likely to sell during the most bearish and discouraging moments in the market

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Despite Powell's optimism, the U.S Economy is likely to slow, potentially facing a mild recession

Even if rates drop to 3-3.25% by mid-2025, FED may need to cut another 175 bps - 50 bps in late 2024 and 125 bps in early 2025

Can this scenario occur?

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Soft landing vs Recession is nearing 50-50 👀

The market now sees a 50% chance of a U.S Recession by June 2025 (up from 10% in July)

This shift followed the FED's unexpected 50 bps cut during the FOMC meeting on Sep 18, the biggest since 2008

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

In just about 2 weeks, assets worth approx $16 Billion will be returned to FTX users

Will this massive amount of cash flow directly into the market? 👀

Bullish on this 🚀

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Moreover, MicroStrategy has just issued a $1.01 Billion bond to buy even more Bitcoin

It seems that $BTC hitting 80K this cycle is inevitable!

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 7,420 $BTC (worth ~ $458M) between 13 - 19/09

The average price this time was $61,750/BTC

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Combined with the ~$1.1 Billion purchase from last week, MicroStrategy’s total #Bitcoin holdings have risen to 252,220 $BTC, with an average acquisition price of $39,266/BTC

At this price point, the company is still up more than 60% on its investment

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Bullish momentum is strong and dominant

We’re about to enter an “UP ONLY” phase!

Hold your bags tight!

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Check this out

$BTC on the H4 timeframe has confirmed a bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows

Price has also broken out of the downtrend line

When examine closely different timeframes, the H4, H1, and M15 are all aligned in an upward trend

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

Apart from the emergency rate cuts during the COVID period, the last time the FED reduced rates by 0.5% was in 2008 during the global financial crisis

$BTC Green today 🚀

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

FED Sep 2024 Decision Highlights

1️⃣ FED cuts rates by 0.5% – first cut since Mar 2020 (COVID) → 11/12 members supported the decision, with only 1 dissenting for a smaller cut 👀

2️⃣ More cuts coming – Projections show up to two more cuts by the end of 2024, adding another 0.5%

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

3️⃣ 2025 cuts expected – 4 more cuts (1%) by 2025, bringing rates near 3.4%

4️⃣ Inflation on target – FED is confident inflation will hit 2%, revising forecasts down to 2.3%

5️⃣ Unemployment rising – FED raised the 2024 unemployment forecast to 4.4% as labor markets weaken

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

I expect a 0.25% cut

Check out the chart above - it lines up with my expectations

Though a rate cut may risk triggering a recession, it’s a vital step for long-term stability

[LokiΞdge @LokiEdge]

The upcoming FOMC meeting could lead to a 'sell the news' reaction

While a rate cut from the FED seems inevitable, the question remains - will it be 0.25% or 0.5%?