Lomo

Swing trader. These are my rants of the financial markets. (Obligatory: not financial advice)

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Judging by the price action of the space stocks, doesn't bode well for $SPCX I've gotta say.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

I’ll bet a lot of money that Iran (and Trump et al but that’s obvious) is making huge bucks in the market.

This is the true #infinitemoney glitch.

1) Buy the dip at open
2) Trump will tweet some crap about “deal is near”
3) Sell in mid afternoon
4) Issue some form of rebuttal
5) Repeat ad infinitum

#IranWar‌

[Lomo @Lomocology]

"U.S. to Award Quantum Computing Firms $2 Billion and Take Equity Stakes."

Have been pretty bearish on quantum stocks for a while but this could just change my stance given market reaction to similar grants in the past. Curious where the money is going to - $IBM is getting $1b. $GFS is getting $375m.

"The rest" are expected to receive $100m. Question is who are these...

$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT $INFQ

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Nice breakout from $BORR today though O&G not tradeable IMO in this environment. The risk is not worth reward when the rugpull could be triggered by a random tweet from #youknowhow.

Case in point: I tried $GUSH on the 28th April. Worked well for a few days and I even lived through the interim volatility. Then random tweet hit on the 6th May...

Live and learn.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Crazy, crazy market. Parabolic shorts ought to be in play this week for a number of names.

They say stock price is like a rubber band - the further you stretch it, the harder it snaps back. What happens however if the rubber band is stretched so hard that it broke?

#USmarket #crazybull

[Lomo @Lomocology]

@801010athlete You and me dude. I took that thing since the 4th with a great entry and held through the whipsaw last few days. Finally got stopped out this morning and now this.

Just want to throw my keyboard at something.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Every trading cycle has its own favoured trading pattern based on the prevailing market condition.

The pattern in vogue right now appears to be the "V-shape bounce then off to the moon" setup. 4 charts here from 4 different sectors yet the moves are very similar - and there are many, many more including new ones each day ( $COIN for example is doing it today)

Makes it rather difficult to take position due to lack of consolidation. Traders will need to find different entry tactics if they want to participate without their R/R getting out of whack.

$CRWV $USAR $IONQ $SOXL

[Lomo @Lomocology]

More shenanigans on $CAR for those who missed the earnings call this morning.

The short version is #Pentwater knowingly sold their shares when they are not allowed to. They are in violation of certain securities regulations therefore and it means Avis is now due part of their trading profit.

An off the cuff remark from an analyst said Pentwater "may have made $1 billion of profit" though I suspect it'll take a while to work out how much they are owed.

So it's all a calculated gamble from those guys - sell while the goings is good then work out a settlement with the company by exploiting some legal loopholes.

Two thoughts:
a) I am now expecting a bounce on $CAR (and hey, their earnings are actually not bad...)
b) I expect once the dust settled on this, we'll get a lot people copying the same playbook (until the SEC closes down the loophole that is... which is probably never under this administration). Stay tuned :-P

[Lomo @Lomocology]

#Treasury yield pumping. Oil price pumping. Yet market partying like 1999. What gives 😂 #QQQ

P.s. great send off by #Powell with a parting gift to the orange man. #Iaintleaving

P.p.s. I suspect earning at close today will be decisive where we heading next with all eyes on capex spend and how sustainable semi sector will be

[Lomo @Lomocology]

This is huge actually. Most of us have spend most if not all of our life under an oil cartel and it is looking like its conclusion is near. An end to an era.

Two immediate thoughts:
1) Short term this will likely do nothing to #brent #oilprice. UAE is pumping out as much oil as humanly possible already with the #HormuzCrisis.

2) Medium term bearish for oil. UAE will want to take advantage of short term oil price spike more aggressively. This also means volatility will go up.

3) This is more of a conjecture, but I suspect #UAE is also seeing the writing on the wall to petrodollar. With successive #oilshock, the world is accelerating its move away from oil reliance and UAE is trying to maximise its revenue while the going is still good.

Bullish for all alternative energy. #OPEC

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

UAE SAYS IT WILL LEAVE OPEC AND OPEC+ AS OF MAY 1 - STATE NEWS AGENCY

[Lomo @Lomocology]

@RealSimpleAriel you can add $KEEL to the list

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Congrats $CAR bears. Your patience has finally paid off after death by a million paper cuts.

Now that the company has pushed forward the earnings date to 29 April, it is safe to assume (unless they have gone cuckoo) that:

a) insiders (including a certain board member ahem... #SRS) will want to sell while the going is still pretty darn awesome and

b) a gigantic ATM offering (or convertibles as the case may be but I am betting on straight equity) is incoming

which would lead to the long road back to whence it came from interspersed by multiple dead cat bounces.

I do not plan to join this as I want to sleep soundly at night. Good luck though.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Will $CAR continue to fly today?

As a fun comparison, the last pump of a large cap with highly concentrated shareholder base (that I can recall) was #Viacom (now Paramount $PSKY).

It started as a ~$15bn mid cap in Mar 2020 when #Archegos aka #BillHwang began accumulating. By the time of liquidation, Archegos had built economic exposure to well over 50% of the float via total return swaps.

What stands out is that the Viacom saga ran for nearly a full year and ultimately drove the market cap up by over 7x. The move only broke in Mar 21, when the company launched an equity offering that triggered margin calls on Archegos and forced a rapid unwind.

In that respect, $CAR, with even more concentrated ownership and tighter float, still feels early in that playbook.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

@MarioNawfal

[Lomo @Lomocology]

@DeItaone

[Lomo @Lomocology]

#Brent down almost 8% and US #oil down a massive 11%.

This is the time when the Iranians are more credible than... the other people.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨 IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI SAYS: IN LINE WITH THE CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON, THE PASSAGE FOR ALL COMMERCIAL VESSELS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS DECLARED COMPLETELY OPEN FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF CEASEFIRE

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Ehh... do we actually believe this? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me frice...

$USO down 2.5% pm in the meantime and US oil down a bigger 5.8%. The more meaningful #brent (to gauge middle east oil flow) down a more modest 1.7% and still firmly in range.

The riskiest of risk assets ala $BTC $ETH and $SOL are now however flagging with $BTC even doing a fake breakout earlier.

Full port on margin over the weekend for Valhalla on Monday? 😅

[The Pakistan Index @thepakindex]

REUTERS: US–Iran negotiations are close to a potential agreement, with talks already in the final phase.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

Some cool analysis from @matt_levine today on $CAR

The short version is $CAR is basically rigged as the shares are highly concentrated and held by 2 shareholders (including an Avis board member!) to the tune of over 100% through combination of direct shareholding, total return swap and short selling activities.

The #shortsqueeze can therefore go on ad infinitum should they wish to due to highly constricted supplies.

It is certain that the stock will still dump, at some point. But it doesn't sit well with me that I'll be at the mercy of 2 guys who can decide to rugpull any moment. (the last instance of this was $PARA and #Archegos - look at how that one turned out)

Time to let it go, guys.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

$CAR I salute you.

[Lomo @Lomocology]

$CAR 🤞🤞