@rich18318@c_MANANA_ They diluted to get ExxonMobil off their back. That and execution risk due to Hondo delay. Next earnings we get execution confirmation.
$SMCI if there were ever a company to punish right now for their asshattery, it is this one. Taiwan caught them funneling product to their enemy and anyone thinking they are not getting fucked hard can smoke another piece of crack rock.
They went and shopped that debt and noone got down with 25%. They didn't expect that to happen nor did they expect a delay on Hondo. They absolutely bet on that and even planned on doing collar hedge to lock in oil profits. It very much looked like 10s of millions bought a month of maturity and in a short window they decided to dilute. I would like more color on the deep pipe that runs from Hondo to Harmony. Nearly 3 miles long.
$SOC reality check: Market pricing dilution risk, but missing the math. Q1 showed $1.3M revenue on two days of sales at 50K bpd. Extrapolate that run rate through year-end at $9-11/Boe opex and the free cash flow story flips positive WITHOUT Hondo. Hedging program still TBD but the base case holds. This isn't a binary Hondo bet anymore.