Longleaf Picks

Beating the closing line, one Saturday at a time. Weekly Power Rankings, SOS & SOR. Free picks every week, every result posted. 21+

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

Week 8 results, every pick graded
All picks: 32-23-1
Unanimous: 6-5-1
Free picks: 2-1

Good or lucky? Where our season sits on the curve, plus our takes on the week's big games 👇
https://t.co/veie857GLo

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@JalinTroutman35 95% of betters lose money so he’s probably bragging that he loses money faster.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@only_loxs Ok line movement is treated like gospel on X but it’s really useless unless you know WHY it moved.

That’s why we are able to hit over a 55% win rate by predicting where a line WILL move to.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

1000%. So many of these scam artists out themselves because they don’t understand this. You also really can’t prove if you’re lucky or good just based on win rate.

We are running 55.2% ATS on 676 bets. (Posted on our website’s home page) In theory, based on win rate alone, there is a very small chance that this is just luck.

We have other ways to prove it though ;)

[BettingIsCool @BettingIsCool]

How many bets does it take to prove you have an edge? More than you think.

Over 500 NFL bets at −110, a genuine 57% bettor still finishes below break-even roughly 1 time in 50.

At 54%, only 77% of 500-bet runs end in profit. One run saw a 15-game losing streak and a 65% bankroll drawdown.

Lower the price to −106, and the chance of a net loss drops from 23% to 12%.

Variance comes first. The vig makes it worse.

Read the full analysis by @DoctorRazzWSOP and rethink what 500 bets can prove:
https://t.co/g8ugpBd3CR

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@sprtsbettingpix Ah understood

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@LupusBeowulf 🐺🐺🐺 The bell tower can only get so red

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

Something I see a lot online is “If the information is so good why hide it behind a paywall?”

The answer is that if you have a real edge you need to hide it bc public information influences markets.

This is why models like FPI are useless ATS even though they are top performers. They are public so the information is priced into the line.

If someone is giving out lots of free picks it’s safe to assume they are not putting money on them or it should be suspect that they have any real edge at all. #BettingX #BettingTips #BettingTwitter

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@FiddlesPicks Thank you @FiddlesPicks for exposing these people!

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@DailyCFBCBB There isn’t a correlation between the total and the odds of an underdog covering.

This is because the money line already factors all of that information in.

Follow us to see what isn’t priced in.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@BudElliott3 It’s crazy. people were saying this about the 12 team playoff and then #11 Miami almost won it all last year.

Sometimes teams get hot at the end of the year.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@JoshPateCFB This would fix so many issues. Then bring back the BCS (- the coaches poll).

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

Week 8 power rankings. Who's overrated?

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

Vegas doesn’t manipulate lines to favor certain teams just because.

Even if you really believe this. The idea that you could just easily search up this information on X is just… wild.

Vegas always sits the line where they will make the most money based on how the market has bet. That’s why before kickoff all books settle around same spread.

[David Clark 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇬🇱🇷🇺🇷🇸 @DavidClark9293]

Vegas dOeSn'T mAnIpUlAtE gAmEs. 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@fredwinss_ This is misinformation. Vegas doesn’t manipulate games. They simply sit the line where they make the most money regardless of the outcome.

Please get better information than this

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@Gino_BetOpenly They fundamentally don’t understand statistics and it shows

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

This is overly simplistic. You need to track how your edge compares to market prices over time. Sometimes the market “finds” your edge and it is priced in.

This is why we model line movements so we can tell if our edge is priced in. This is the real key to consistently beating the market.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@brayden22h This SOS list is not even close to accurate. Purdue has the hardest SOS in the country. Not Oklahoma.

[Longleaf Picks @LongleafPicks]

@Bear_up1 @ESPNCFB We tried to warn them 🫠. #BearUp