Live Bitcoin charts, on-chain analytics & market intelligence.
Helping you better understand Bitcoin through data.
Managed by @PositiveCrypto | @MattCrosbyPro
Bitcoin’s latest pullback looks strikingly similar to the March 2023 retest of the 200-day moving average... 🧐
That recovery went on to deliver substantial gains, will we now see the same? 🤞
Bitcoin back in value territory now.
Fewer than 1 in 4 days in Bitcoin's history have been better value than today.
MVRV Quantile Bands: 24th percentile🟢
@charliegee2020 Hard to put an exact number on it, very situational dependant. For example now while we're above some key MA's I think a retest like we're seeing now is a good bull market dip signal that I like, but during choppy bear signals you want a much deeper mean reversion signal.
Bitcoin gets cheaper. You buy the dip. Then it gets cheaper again.
I tested whether deeper discounts actually meant better buying opportunities—and whether waiting for them beat regular buying.
The results weren’t as straightforward as you might expect. 📊
@charliegee2020 Strategic DCA almost always wins, which roughly means buying a 'normal' amount say 60% of the time, and buying very aggressively 20% of the time and buying none or even selling 20% of the cycle.
You can figure out at what point we're in with STH MVRV alongside other metrics!
Update on this important post:
Back in August I wrote this about the 1-year moving average (50WMA / 52WMA):
"It's very possible we break above it, drop back below it at some point, and only then see the eventual uptrend continuation."
That's exactly whats happening. We broke above it, calls for "up only", and now we're back beneath it.
That's the alpha decay I outlined. When this many people are positioned for the same outcome on a metric, fakeouts become WAY more likely.
I still think the eventual uptrend continuation comes. It was just less likely to come in a straight line.
Stay calm, dont get swayed by influencers, and zoom out ✊🟠
JUST IN: Look Into Bitcoin’s Head of Research says "if I use one word to sum up Bitcoin, it'd be asymmetric" 👏
"Given the fact that we can put together these amazing conferences and we care so much about an asset that still doesn't even make up 0.3% of global invested capital"