Łukasz

Brick by Brick | Not an overthinker, just a genius | @leftcurvedao

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@real_y22 @0xSleuth_ https://t.co/jq7y1d4AYM

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@0xSammy @virtuals_io I would argue that you have to look at the MC multiple not the FDV one (which is indeed 45/10 = 4.5x)

Circulating is 17% so Real MC is 7.65 aka the MC/NAV is 0.765. That is a 24% discount

$DEUS is basically trading at a 85% discount to BOT's multiple. That is a 7x from here

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@0xSammy @virtuals_io I would argue that you have to look at the MC multiple not the FDV one (which is indeed 45/10 = 4.5x)

Circulating is 17% so Real MC is 7.65 aka the MC/NAV is 0.765. That is a 24% discount

$DEUS is basically trading at a 85% discount to BOT's multiple. That is a 7x from here

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

$DEUS launched today. Undervalued in every NAV related metric

Only VC/Company that has a token that gives holders exposure to Web2 robotics companies such as:

Figure AI, 1x (Neo), Apptronik, Agility...

This is basically the crypto equivalent of Andrew Kang's fund BOT (trading in the stock market).

Same concept and invested in same companies, but one of them is hugely mispriced compared to the other

BOT is trading at a multiple to NAV of 5.05x. For DEUS this looks way different:

I would argue that you have to value DEUS using a MC multiple not the FDV one (which is 41/10 = 4.1x, so actually still below BOTs one)

Circulating is 17% so real MC is just 7M. In other words, the MC/NAV is 0.7

So while BOT is trading at a 405% premium, DEUS is trading at a 30% discount

Using BOTs NAV multiple, DEUS is basically trading at a 85% discount to it. That is a 7x from here.

[MCG @MCGlive]

Today on MCG: @zolkilla | Co-Founder @xmaquina (@peaq) | $DEUS

Xmaquina is taking over Robotics Capital Markets

The DAO has invested roughly $7M into @Figure_robot, @Apptronik, @agilityrobotics, @NEURARobotics and others, using issuer-approved SPVs rather than mirror tokens, through public auctions.

- 1,800 holders pre-TGE
- two portfolio positions already up over 100%
- TGE lands tomorrow (May 27)

Key moments include:

02:42 - The 10-year vision
09:39 - The 7 portfolio companies
14:14 - Issuer-approved SPVs vs mirror tokens
33:27 - How tokenized SPVs paired against $DEUS generate fees back to the DAO
44:48 - TGE on deck

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@MCGlive @DineroDom0 @ChillTRD @RoboStrategy @xmaquina How are people not realizing that it is 7x below BOTs multiple and just trading at a 0.765 multiple

https://t.co/jq7y1d4AYM

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@0xSammy @virtuals_io I would argue that you have to look at the MC multiple not the FDV one (which is indeed 45/10 = 4.5x)

Circulating is 17% so Real MC is 7.65 aka the MC/NAV is 0.765. That is a 24% discount

$DEUS is basically trading at a 85% discount to BOT's multiple. That is a 7x from here

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@0xSammy @virtuals_io I would argue that you have to look at the MC multiple not the FDV one (which is indeed 45/10 = 4.5x)

Circulating is 17% so Real MC is 7.65 aka the MC/NAV is 0.765. That is a 24% discount

$DEUS is basically trading at a 85% discount to BOT's multiple. That is a 7x from here

[DW⚡️ @scalpsxbt]

First and only robotics launch in crypto to give exposure to major robotics companies that went viral in the past months.

Figure AI, 1x (Neo), Apptronik, Agility... $Deus is holding prefered and common shares of these companies.

Their core idea is to use onchain governance to allocate capital into physical robotics companies that are hard to access for retail:
- Need to hold $Deus to participate directly in decisions around capital allocation.
- 33% of the profit from successful company exits will be used for $Deus buybacks.
- Raised $20M; last sale valuation was at 60M FDV.
- 17% circ supply, puts it at 8M circ mcap right now.

Why is it clearly undervalued here?
Their NAV is $10M (not including their DEUS holdings, which are worth $16M).
Consists of $7M invested in robotics companies + $3M in cash.

For context, Andrew Kang's fund is trading at 5x its NAV, while $Deus is trading below it right now.
The reason for comparing Kang's company to Deus is that they are both invested in the same robotics companies. (check the pics)

Anyways, should be clearly limited downside here considering $Deus trades below the NAV and given the premium Kang's fund trades at (while being invested in the same companies).

Also, in the future, whenever there is a major headline involving Kang's fund, Figure AI, 1x, etc., people will look for a proxy in crypto, and there is only one company that actually gives exposure to them: $DEUS.

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

Very good info about $SEDA

Covers what I said in my last two tweets + much more

Also, after taking into account stakers (21d notice to unstake) MC becomes only 14M

[Zana Ventures @ZanaVentures]

https://t.co/9km6Dos60o

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@ZanaVentures Early on HYPE's cope play

Great one!

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

This $SEDA thesis still holds. It got much better now:

HYPE @ ATHs thanks to HIP-4, Coinbase partnership, pre-IPO markets & TradeXYZ

Only direct exposure to these pre-IPO and TradeXYZ equity markets is SEDA. They power everything in that direction. They also power Dreamcash (HYPE mobile app making 5B vol / month)

More and more equity markets will launch and get attention. More and more pre-IPO markets (the biggest ones: SPCX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Andurill) will launch and get massive volume. In other words, SEDA burn will go crazy

Talking about burns, they are at ATHs + 40x higher than in october (300M FDV) + translates to 10x more daily fees

Besides Hyperliquid, any platform that wants to make some use of pre-IPO markets NEEDS to use SEDA's oracle

In other words: HYPE PA wise but also fundamental wise, the thesis / setup is much better than in October

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

Time to start posting again

I’ve decided to start journaling my trade theses again. I really enjoyed doing it, and it helps me stay on top of what each project does + why I bought or sold.

October recap: Picks were solid. Execution needs some work. A few theses below.

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@xbt2027 Aight, thanks for clarifying. Will the launch price / liq pool be known in advance?

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

This was interesting. Phase 5 cleared at a 13.% discount to Phase 1

Not many bought during Phases 2 and 3, so the supply of Phase 4 was burned

Made a sensitivity analysis for the TGE price for p5 buyers. Depends on the clearing price and multiple (both are unknown for now)

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@xbt2027 ($2027 // $XBT) - Phase by Phase

2027 was the experiment, now it is the infra/ecosystem token. 10% of all SOL raised across all five phases of each launch such as the XBT launch goes for $2027 buybacks

Regarding the current XBT sale: Phases 2, 3, and 4 carry premiums (1.21x, 1.44x, 1.69x). Phase 1 and 5 valuation is determined by the sol raised in each round. However, p1 is not a floor because Phase 5 has a single pro-rata clearing price with no requirement that p5 > p1

The majority of people do not seem to know this. That is why, if the initial hype exhausts itself in Phase 1, Phase 5 could theoretically clear at a much lower valuation. This phase might get even cheaper if you think phases 2–4 are unlikely to be filled due to their premiums since their unsold supply rolls over, which would make phase 5 a much larger bucket of tokens being sold at whatever price the remaining market is willing to pay

So, if momentum stalls, p5 could end up equal to or lower than p1 and phase 4 buyers could have essentially bought at least 40% cheaper if p5 = p1 (paying a huge premium). There is a trap tho, since if everyone waits for Phase 5 to get a better deal than the p2-p4 premiums, p5 could end up more expensive than p1, even if p2-p4 were not filled.

The TGE price is always higher than the clearing price of the final discovery round (if p5 > p4) or higher than p4 (which is 1.69 x p1). For example, if Phase 5 clears at $1 the token must list at a minimum of some multiplier x $1. If p4 was $1.69 and p5 $0.50, the TGE price is guarded to be at least some multiplier x $1.69 (prevents a collapse and everyone being underwater)

Also, 90% of the total raised SOL is paired with 10% of the XBT supply. If this ends up being a vert thick liquidity pool, the price floor (clearing/TGE price) will be very strong. 60% of the total supply is burned at TGE, so 40% circulating supply

Looking at what gives the best r/r it is definitely imo the 2027 token on ETH. You can either gamble on the phases and end up with a bad entry if momentum fades away, or just enjoy the buybacks. I bought 2027 (around 700k MC) and will wait to the finals minutes of phase 5 to decide if I will participate in the auction (will be able to tell if there were a lot of people sidelined or if momentum really died and I got myself a good deal)

While I was writing this Phase 1 raised 4222 SOL and Phase 2 only got 23% filled. So the remaining 77% of that 5% supply allocation is now a rollover. If phase 2 already struggled with the 1.21x premium, Phase 3 and 4 will most probably also struggle. Was lucky enough to have the chart open at the same time and sold around 1.8M MC. Unless the entire crowd is waiting for the final minutes of phase 5, I am planning to buy some XBT there

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@mantoalt @xbt2027 Game theory. I think a lot of people played it in a way smarter way than previously. Also didn't think that would happen tbf

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@xbt2027 ($2027 // $XBT) - Phase by Phase

2027 was the experiment, now it is the infra/ecosystem token. 10% of all SOL raised across all five phases of each launch such as the XBT launch goes for $2027 buybacks

Regarding the current XBT sale: Phases 2, 3, and 4 carry premiums (1.21x, 1.44x, 1.69x). Phase 1 and 5 valuation is determined by the sol raised in each round. However, p1 is not a floor because Phase 5 has a single pro-rata clearing price with no requirement that p5 > p1

The majority of people do not seem to know this. That is why, if the initial hype exhausts itself in Phase 1, Phase 5 could theoretically clear at a much lower valuation. This phase might get even cheaper if you think phases 2–4 are unlikely to be filled due to their premiums since their unsold supply rolls over, which would make phase 5 a much larger bucket of tokens being sold at whatever price the remaining market is willing to pay

So, if momentum stalls, p5 could end up equal to or lower than p1 and phase 4 buyers could have essentially bought at least 40% cheaper if p5 = p1 (paying a huge premium). There is a trap tho, since if everyone waits for Phase 5 to get a better deal than the p2-p4 premiums, p5 could end up more expensive than p1, even if p2-p4 were not filled.

The TGE price is always higher than the clearing price of the final discovery round (if p5 > p4) or higher than p4 (which is 1.69 x p1). For example, if Phase 5 clears at $1 the token must list at a minimum of some multiplier x $1. If p4 was $1.69 and p5 $0.50, the TGE price is guarded to be at least some multiplier x $1.69 (prevents a collapse and everyone being underwater)

Also, 90% of the total raised SOL is paired with 10% of the XBT supply. If this ends up being a vert thick liquidity pool, the price floor (clearing/TGE price) will be very strong. 60% of the total supply is burned at TGE, so 40% circulating supply

Looking at what gives the best r/r it is definitely imo the 2027 token on ETH. You can either gamble on the phases and end up with a bad entry if momentum fades away, or just enjoy the buybacks. I bought 2027 (around 700k MC) and will wait to the finals minutes of phase 5 to decide if I will participate in the auction (will be able to tell if there were a lot of people sidelined or if momentum really died and I got myself a good deal)

While I was writing this Phase 1 raised 4222 SOL and Phase 2 only got 23% filled. So the remaining 77% of that 5% supply allocation is now a rollover. If phase 2 already struggled with the 1.21x premium, Phase 3 and 4 will most probably also struggle. Was lucky enough to have the chart open at the same time and sold around 1.8M MC. Unless the entire crowd is waiting for the final minutes of phase 5, I am planning to buy some XBT there

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@xbt2027 Interesting, assuming the multiple is 1

Before the minimum TGE price was determined by the max of p4 and p5

Since there is no p4 now and p3 = p2, will it be the max of p2 and p4 instead?

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@game_for_one Agree

https://t.co/N4XKATFTsF

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@xbt2027 ($2027 // $XBT) - Phase by Phase

2027 was the experiment, now it is the infra/ecosystem token. 10% of all SOL raised across all five phases of each launch such as the XBT launch goes for $2027 buybacks

Regarding the current XBT sale: Phases 2, 3, and 4 carry premiums (1.21x, 1.44x, 1.69x). Phase 1 and 5 valuation is determined by the sol raised in each round. However, p1 is not a floor because Phase 5 has a single pro-rata clearing price with no requirement that p5 > p1

The majority of people do not seem to know this. That is why, if the initial hype exhausts itself in Phase 1, Phase 5 could theoretically clear at a much lower valuation. This phase might get even cheaper if you think phases 2–4 are unlikely to be filled due to their premiums since their unsold supply rolls over, which would make phase 5 a much larger bucket of tokens being sold at whatever price the remaining market is willing to pay

So, if momentum stalls, p5 could end up equal to or lower than p1 and phase 4 buyers could have essentially bought at least 40% cheaper if p5 = p1 (paying a huge premium). There is a trap tho, since if everyone waits for Phase 5 to get a better deal than the p2-p4 premiums, p5 could end up more expensive than p1, even if p2-p4 were not filled.

The TGE price is always higher than the clearing price of the final discovery round (if p5 > p4) or higher than p4 (which is 1.69 x p1). For example, if Phase 5 clears at $1 the token must list at a minimum of some multiplier x $1. If p4 was $1.69 and p5 $0.50, the TGE price is guarded to be at least some multiplier x $1.69 (prevents a collapse and everyone being underwater)

Also, 90% of the total raised SOL is paired with 10% of the XBT supply. If this ends up being a vert thick liquidity pool, the price floor (clearing/TGE price) will be very strong. 60% of the total supply is burned at TGE, so 40% circulating supply

Looking at what gives the best r/r it is definitely imo the 2027 token on ETH. You can either gamble on the phases and end up with a bad entry if momentum fades away, or just enjoy the buybacks. I bought 2027 (around 700k MC) and will wait to the finals minutes of phase 5 to decide if I will participate in the auction (will be able to tell if there were a lot of people sidelined or if momentum really died and I got myself a good deal)

While I was writing this Phase 1 raised 4222 SOL and Phase 2 only got 23% filled. So the remaining 77% of that 5% supply allocation is now a rollover. If phase 2 already struggled with the 1.21x premium, Phase 3 and 4 will most probably also struggle. Was lucky enough to have the chart open at the same time and sold around 1.8M MC. Unless the entire crowd is waiting for the final minutes of phase 5, I am planning to buy some XBT there

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

@joeyroth 👀👀

[Łukasz @LostMySimCard_]

Universal Accounts and Chain/Wallet Abstraction are the future to onboard the mass on-chain.

Everyone is using FOMO lately. What if I want to trade on my PC instead of just using my phone?

That's where @ParticleNtwrk / @UseUniversalX comes in.

Multi and Crosschain trading without bridging, TG/Wechat call tracking, and much more. All in one single terminal

I have been using it and to be totally honest, it's the fastest cross-chain trading platform I have ever used

You dont even need to create a new wallet. Just import old wallets and start trading. PnL Cards also are the best I have seen ever.

[Particle Network @ParticleNtwrk]

Universal Accounts are now 1-year old... and so, we're leveling up.

We're introducing full EIP-7702 support, allowing you to make any app chain-agnostic.

Works out of the box with @privy_io, @dynamic_xyz, and @magic_labs.

Connect an EOA to make it Universal. Zero migration required. Pay gas with any token. Deposit from any chain, Solana or EVM. Seamless cross-chain txs.

In short, forget about chains.

Start building 👇