guaranteed winning strategy in crypto at this stage of the cycle:
1. short every single launch with the identical amount, e.g. $1k and 2x leverage
2. you will get liquidated on the occasional @megaeth or hyperliquid, but you will have a win rate of 99%
3. continue this for the next year
In crypto you have 40 psychopaths with billions of dollars trying to take every last penny you own by next tuesday.
In the stock market you have 150 million US residents with an IQ of 100 buying with every single one of their paychecks regardless of price and with no plans to sell in the next decade
This #DataPrivacyWeek, we wrap up our #DeGoogle series with the best alternatives for all Google Products.
Read the massive 🧵 to know more about each alternative.
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The intrinsic value of Bitcoin
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are "backed by nothing": a claim cryptocurrency haters like the repeat. The opposite is that the US dollars are backed by the ability to collect taxes from US citizens, with some good aircraft carriers and a couple of nukes.
Stay with me and I debunk this.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are backed by several factors. These are mostly intangible.
Brand value
Bitcoin's name is recognised by everyone, everywhere, in the literal, online, world. Other similar brands can be counted on one hand, like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.
Acceptability
Bitcoin can be accepted all over the world. Even if your merchant does not accept it directly, you find middlemen willing to convert.
Even if you cannot convert it to a local currency right away, you can accept and hold Bitcoin in your cryptocurrency wallet and convert it later. At this point, the payment is already accepted.
Accessibility
Bitcoin can be bought every in the world - even in China which has 10 years of history banning it, the harshest most totalitarian surveillance state in the world, has not been able to ban it.
The struggle of police state is real.
Openness
You do not need to ask anyone's permission to integrate Bitcoin. Not only can anyone do it, but it is very easy in software engineering-wise. It is much easier than, for example, accepting EUR credit card payments for which you need to go through a licensed merchant terminal broker
This has led to both acceptability and accessibility above.
Network effect
Because Bitcoin is very accessible today, it will be even more accessible tomorrow.
Trust value
Bitcoin has been operating for a decade without hiccups, and it is likely to continue operating for a few more decades. This is, for example, longer than the Euro system has been operating without interventions ("whatever it takes").
Censorship resistant
The government cannot get your Bitcoin without you voluntarily giving it up, e.g. not behind your back. They can still beat Bitcoin out of you, but there is a large gap taking something by violence and confiscating the assets of several people without question.
Liquidity and size
Bitcoin is one of the most liquid markets in the world. Unlike your home or second apartment or even large stock positions, liquidating your Bitcoin is much more frictionless.
Because of its liquidity and size, Bitcoin also makes excellent collateral for trading, assuming you hedge out its volatility first.
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value
Based on the above factors, this is not true. What you would pay for an online payment system that
1. Has a well recognised by a brand
2. Anyone can integrate around the world with well-defined documentation
3. It has market depth to handle transactions from medium to size to arbitrary large without breaking a sweat
4. There are local integrators everywhere in the world
5. The idiots running your local government or a central bank cannot mess with it -
Bitcoin sucks as a payment method for everyday transactions. This may never be fixed, and there are better public blockchain and cryptocurrency-based solutions to address like stablecoins on Ethereum. However, for transactions of a certain size and as "something that will always work" there is much value. The value might not be correct in terms of Bitcoin market cap, but it is still going to be a value of a large number.
And like with all currency markets, it is a question of faith, we cannot go around this. Fiat currencies rest solely on the faith of the central bank being able to fix things, which we have seen is sometimes hard even for the most advanced economies in the world, not to talk about smaller ones.
Ironically, a lot of Bitcoin faith value comes from the fact that you lack faith in your local elected leaders. Bitcoin is the Big Short movie for the world economy.
What is the correct value of Bitcoin?
The correct value of Bitcoin is what it is worth to have a currency that works based on the above factors. The challenge of valuing this correctly comes from the network effect. The larger Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies become, the more valuable they will be because the value is derived from their size and accessibility.
Have we reached peak Bitcoin yet? Maybe, maybe not. We already see that each "bear market" or "dip" has been smaller and smaller for the Bitcoin market cap, in terms of relative % value, so Bitcoin is stabilising.
In some point, the number will stop going up, because of the saturation of the market and then people find it more useful to convert their Bitcoins to other investment opportunities.
Why buy a $500,000 home and rent it out for $2,000/m…
When you can buy $500,000 in Coca-Cola stock and get a dividend yield of $1,333/m.
No tenants, no repairs, no vacancies…
Plus, Coca-Cola has increased its dividend payouts for over 60 consecutive years.
I've seen many people struggle with understanding the differences between AI tools like Bolt, v0, and Cursor.
Since I've been using all of them for several months now (with subscriptions), I’m going to summarize their key points here.
Full Thread: 🧵
I'm building a new startup. Here's my AI team
https://t.co/6tSuA3iQhf - Frontend Engineer
https://t.co/X55zLfPLzS - Backend Engineer
@crewAIInc - Product Designer / Manager
Claude AI - Content Creator
@perplexity_ai / NotebookLM - Researcher
@canva - Graphics Designer
@capcutapp magic tools - Video Editor
Who else should be in my team?
This is absolutely insane:
1. Tesla, $TSLA, has added $450 billion in 1 month
2. #Bitcoin has added $1 trillion over the last 12 months
3. The S&P 500 has added $15 trillion over the last 13 months
4. Gold has added $4.5 trillion over the last 12 months
5. Nvidia, $NVDA, has added $2.4 trillion over the last 12 months
6. The Magnificent 7 have added $9 trillion over the last 4 years
We are witnessing one of the greatest runs in stock market history.
The former CEO of Sotheby's, Tim Smith. It is is job to know value. He retired and studied Bitcoin and the economy we have just been in.
Please I urge you to understand as Bitcoin goes from $76,000 to $1,000,000 and beyond.
Take 2 minutes to change your family future.