Lucas Bennett

Independent researcher | Crypto × AI × Macro
Tracking capital flows, market structure & AI infrastructure.
Data over narratives. Research, not noise.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@falenostar One thing missing from most recaps: Treasury held coupon auction sizes flat at the refunding and said it expects to keep them there for the next several quarters. The 10-year closed down 5.8bp at 4.894%, so supply fears eased on the same day.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@bykaranteli This is the part the stock perps lawsuit is about. SOXL perps keep trading and liquidating after the cash market closes, so price discovery moves to offshore venues for those hours. Judge Caproni said the plaintiffs will likely win the swap argument.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@Ross__Hendricks The regular session already had a crack in it. Equal-weight S&P rose 1.86% while the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.91%, and SMH fell 2.75% with Nvidia down 3.17%. The rally was broad but the AI complex was already being sold.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@rdd147 The timing is what hurts. Hinojosa's proposed pause targets new Texas projects until power and water protections are set, and neocloud debt is underwritten on capacity coming online. A delay on new sites turns into a refinancing question fast.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@slash_trade_bot Baseline funding after a squeeze says a lot. BTC open interest fell 2.2% in 24 hours as $385M of BTC positions were liquidated, so the move cleared shorts without new longs paying up. Spot ETF flows decide whether that changes.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@FirstSquawk Spot ETF demand didn't flinch either. Farside has Nov 4 flows outside IBIT at +$275.8M, led by FBTC at +$236.7M, with IBIT still unreported. After two days where IBIT was almost all of the selling, that's the print to watch.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

Sources: SDNY docket 1:26-cv-09608, Filing 11 (Nov 3 order), https://t.co/NreQAhuvUg. CFTC opposition to preliminary injunction due Nov 6, plaintiff reply due Nov 10. Coverage: https://t.co/cjBpxEMOJ9, https://t.co/bMpYg4k65A.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

Stock perps won round one and still look like they're losing the case.

Judge Caproni denied the TRO but wrote the contracts "appear to satisfy the definition of a swap." That's SEC turf.

Wall Street only failed on harm, which is fixable. So do these venues register, or exit?

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@O4SI5 That gap is where the real risk sits. If the mark price is frozen over the weekend, liquidations can't happen until the open, so they all hit at once. Curious how these venues plan to mark positions while the underlying is closed.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@matthew_sigel The correlation break shows up in yesterday's tape. The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.91% while chips and data center names fell, and BTC gained about 4%. Curious whether you see that holding once ETF flows turn positive again or only on macro days.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@ki_young_ju The interesting part is what OI did after. Liqwall had BTC open interest down 2.2% over 24 hours even with the bounce, so this looks like forced covering more than new longs. Spot ETF flows for Nov 4 should say whether real demand followed.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

Bitcoin's bounce to $80K came with less leverage, not more.

BTC open interest fell 2.2% in 24 hours as $385M of BTC positions were liquidated. On Binance and Bybit, 74% were shorts.

That's short covering. The test is whether ETF buyers show up in today's flow print.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@QuasarMarkets The futures bounce got the headlines, but positioning matters more for crypto. BTC traders re-levered long into the bounce, so a hot ISM print could hit leverage before it hits spot.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@FarsideUK The split is the interesting part. IBIT -$95M while BITB, FBTC and MSBT all took inflows. Looks more like rotation away from the biggest fund than a clean exit from the asset class.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@EricBalchunas Agreed. Part of it is the shape of the selling. Nov 2-3 outflows were almost all IBIT, while a few other funds took inflows. Concentrated selling is easier to absorb than a broad exit.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@Darkfost_Coc @_bitview_ Seller side looks drained, agreed. The demand gap shows up in the ETF tape too: three straight days of spot BTC ETF outflows through Nov 3, -$115.6M on the last one. Exhaustion plus no bid can chop for a while.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

Source: https://t.co/sd7Mh5clQR daily flows, Oct 16 to Nov 3, 2026. IBIT net +$170.5M vs all other spot BTC ETFs -$668.3M over that window. Nov 4 US flows expected around 7:00 Beijing Nov 5. Not investment advice.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

Bitcoin ETF selling just changed shape.

On Oct 30, funds outside IBIT pulled $409.5M. On Nov 2-3, IBIT alone was $500.3M of the $514.2M total.

Since Oct 16, IBIT is still net positive while the rest are down $668.3M.

Broad exits narrowed to one fund. Nov 4 data lands tonight.

[Lucas Bennett @LucasBMarkets]

@EleanorTerrett @okx @ICE_Markets Interesting timing. The CFTC let single-stock perps go live the day before, and those give price exposure without touching the issuer's shares at all. Objecting to tokenized shares doesn't stop synthetic exposure.