LuckHarvester

Quantifying Probabilities

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Here’s my first post:

LeBron James will be going to the sixers.

Current odds are ¢16 per contract on polymarket.

Get in while you can.

I’ll see you when it’s confirmed.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@TumboToon_ Okay yeah but your post is very misleading.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@oddsxchemist @bets_jack123 @TumboToon_ Sure but the screenshot is misleading.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@FanaticsBook 87869

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@TheFloridaArber @OddsJam How are u losing huge amounts of money on arbs, if you are doing true arbing?

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@FanaticsCasino 133

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Here’s my first post:

LeBron James will be going to the sixers.

Current odds are ¢16 per contract on polymarket.

Get in while you can.

I’ll see you when it’s confirmed.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Insane return.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

LeBron to sixers was the easiest money ever. I predicted this 9 days ago. Listen to me.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Who knew LeBron was going to the sixers???

Oh wait. I did. Don’t miss out next time.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Philly is +700 or less on most sportsbooks and on Polymarket is trading at 8%.

An 11% chance is ~ +809.

insane value for philly EVEN if it trades at 11-12% on Polymarket, whether you think he will go there or not.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@_k_pn When was this speech?

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@PhillySpecial People are saying rich Paul said something that rules out Philly - have you heard about this at all or no? Idk what he said I was wondering if u did.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@LukeK61190 @thecadencamp1 100% agree and I’m not even a Philly guy

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@thecadencamp1 “Fuel ring chasing talk” - he would be getting 4 rings on 4 teams - that’s what greats do, not ring chasers.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

@PHLSixersNation Does this correlate at all 😂?

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Here are my model outputs on LeBron going to different teams versus the market.

Market doesn’t mean anything. (13% edge on market for Philly - INSANE value)

Bet positive EV while you can. Margins like this don’t come around often.

[NBA Courtside @NBA__Courtside]

LeBron James on people saying for his decision to join a team has to be where he can play golf year-round:

“I love golf, I really do. But golf is a sport that you can play for the rest of your life. Back to the first question that you asked when I first came up here when the end of basketball when it gets to that point, you know. So, as I think about my decision, understanding, you know, well, if I’m in a cold city, if I’m playing on the East Coast, and now the golf course closed in November compared to if I’m in the South and they never closed. Listen, my main focus while I’m playing the game of basketball is to keep the main thing the main thing. And I’ve always have done that. You know, I’ll find a golf simulator if I’m in the cold for sure.”

(Via @boardroom)

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Here are my model outputs on LeBron going to different teams versus the market.

Market doesn’t mean anything. (13% edge on market for Philly - INSANE value)

Bet positive EV while you can. Margins like this don’t come around often.

[Mac @SeanPatrickMac1]

@PHLSixersNation - "Trust the Process" (EMBIID) ✅

- "Keep the main thing the main thing" (HURTS/KLUTCH) ✅

- Made it a point to talk about practice (AI) ✅

- "Get to a place where it's real sunny" (It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia) ✅