Important to note: #ES_F has spent a day basing and the 4hr RSI(5) now reset to where it was Dec 6th before the surge
If ES makes the break to 4720 then 4770 targets shortly, it will be key it *holds* the strength. Losing 4675 or 4640 after the breakout would be big topping sign
After tracking perfectly since March, $SPX seasonality took a break last week - its supposed to bottom ~Thanksgiving and did Dec 3 instead. It more than made up lost time yesterday. *Average from here: Price consolidates/cooloff until early next week, and then rallies into 2022
Today was looking for a dip/basing day in #ES_F and so far, playing out. After largest green day of 2021 yesterday, bulls had to reset the RSI, and its resetting
Supports still 4670-78 (defending) then 4640-45 if this fails. They hold, another leg to 4720 then ATHs at 4770 next
Breaking: @elonmusk says @neuralink plans to implant devices in humans by next year & is "cautiously optimistic" that they can restore full-body functionality for tetraplegics & quadriplegics.
"Our standards for implanting the devices are higher than what the FDA requires."
Worth noting: Seasonality now bullish until Dec 6th, with Thanksgiving historically strong. Tomorrow has been green ~70% of the time last 50 years, and Friday ~60%
As always though, *only* price matters. Bulls need to hold 4650-4630 supports or another big down leg en route
Despite 5 green weeks, #ES_F only managed a small two red day dip last week, opting to chop instead. My core support yesterday was 4670-75: Tested, held & based above for last 12hrs
Plan today: 4702, 4740 in play as long as 4670 holds (4650 lowest). Sell only begins below 4650
The reason simple bull & bear flags are a favorite pattern of mine is they exploit the two most core, universal market features: 1) To trend 2) To pause in trends to refresh before continuing. Takes time to learn, but no need to look further to find a good win rate, high R/R edge
Last Wednesday after FOMC, #ES_F launched from 4630 for 85 point rally & this Wednesday, back-tested it. So far, very little follow through for bulls-not great
Plan today: 4670, 4685(gate to ATHs) in play but 4630 *must hold. Not likely to if re-tested, selling to 4560 big spprt
This week, plan in #ES_F was looking for a dip from 4710 with 4655 support & ~4655 hit overnight. Weak bounce. Bulls need to hold it to stop multiday sell
Plan: 4655 support, 4630 last chance. Bulls must reclaim 4685 now which triggers leg to 4750. 4630 fails sell to 4560 begins
While #ES_F has been in full meltup, worth noting next phase of seasonal strength just starting now until ~Nov 11th, when next weakness starts. I trade price action only, but good to keep in mind the *avg* 20 year seasonal tailwind is up for next 1.5 weeks despite dips we may get
After 10 days of straight upside, #ES_F is doing what classic technicals would suggest- spending a couple days recharging & basing/pattern forming between 4590-4550
Right now, pattern is a triangle. Critical 4550 holds but otherwise means another leg up incoming before pullback
Another ATH today for #ES_F and excellent 34 point rally off todays ~4526 support. My resistance/target is overhead at 4585-90 & good zone for ES to see a needed red day. Daily RSI(5) remains extreme overbought >85 at lvls seen only twice this year (very briefly in July & April)
The 50dma has been only thing necessary to understand #ES_F since Nov 2020: Held 8x this year for major rallies, failed in Sept leading to a month of "sell the bounce", and recaptured Oct 14 causing this squeeze. No need to get complex & dip buying the theme as long as above it
Update: #ES_F wasting absolutely no time to get started today breaking out of the small bull flag I just posted. Likely takes it to the 4535-4540 zone, just shy of a double top which is next zone to see some cool-off.