Luke Carter

Data scientist @TwentyFirstGrp - purely golf stats

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

It's no shock that @McIlroyRory was the big winner after day 2 at #themasters, improving his chances of winning by almost 50% with the round of the week so far.

Notably, @TyrrellHatton secured his place on the weekend and also moved himself into the conversation

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

What are the most difficult shots for each discipline at #themasters so far this week?

🥇Around the Green on Hole 3 (-0.19)
🥈 Approach on Hole 7 (-0.08)
🥉 Drive on Hole 11 (-0.06)
4⃣ Putts on Hole 3 (-0.05)

*values are average SG vs. baseline

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Only 1 #themasters winner has gained less than 5 strokes vs. the field at the half-way point (J.Nicklaus 1986). If this holds true, only the players at T16 or better stand a realistic chance. This would exclude players like Scheffler, Fitzpatrick & Morikawa.

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

McIlroy is now 1 of only 4 players to have gained more than 15 strokes vs. the field thru 36 holes at #themasters since 1983 - only 1 of the other 3 went on to win 🫣

2015 Spieth +16.2 (🏆)
1996 Norman +15.8 (2nd)
2026 @McIlroyRory +15.5 (?)
2005 DiMarco +15.3 (2nd)

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

It's been a story of two halves for Sweden's Luvig Åberg 🇸🇪 so far @TheMasters this week

SG: Tee to Green +7.86 (1st - best in the field)
SG: Putting -1.96 (71st)

If Åberg can get the putter working he could record another high finish at #themasters

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

The best round of the 2026 Masters Tournament was just carded by @TyrrellHatton at -6. As it stands that is a +6.95 stroke gain over the field today.

SG: Off the Tee = +1.21
SG: Approach = +4.04 (58% of total gain)
SG: Around the Green = +0.24
SG: Putting = +1.47

#themasters

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

England's @TyrrellHatton is the hottest player on the course so far today - having gained +4.1 strokes vs. the field thru 7 holes and more the doubling his chances of a Top 20 finish

Position T40 to T12
MC % 73% ---> 99%
Top 20% 27% ---> 57%

#themasters

[The Athletic | Football @TheAthleticFC]

What exactly can the Club World Cup tell us about football around the world?

🇧🇷 Where does the Brazilian league rank globally?
↕️ Is the Saudi top flight actually improving?
⚖️ Which leagues are the most and least competitive?

@MarkCarey93 dives into the data and explains all...

🔗 https://t.co/ZmzikrtXKB

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Unbelievable week for @McIlroyRory capping off his career grand slam at #themasters and here is how he did it...

SG:Total +13.72 (T1st)
SG:Off the Tee +4.33 (4th)
SG:Approach +6.94 (4th)
SG:ARG +2.86 (8th)
SG:Putting -0.41 (55th)

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Rory's approach shots to 15 the last two days...

RD 3 = 205 yds to 6 ft (+0.94 SG)
RD 4 = 208 yds to 6 ft (+0.98 SG)

#themasters

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

This is honestly a crazy watch at #themasters McIlroy has gone from a 98% favourite thru 12 to a 35% favourite thru 14

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

And it's all tied at the top! Nobody since 1983 (PGA Tour data records began) has made more than 1 double bogey or worse in their final round and won at #themasters

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

A key difference between @McIlroyRory & @brysondech this week at #themasters ...

SG:APPROACH from 100-125 yds
-----
R. McIlroy = +2.10 (1st in the field*)
B. DeChambeau = -1.26 (48th in the field*)

*of players that made the cut

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

So far today @brysondech has struggled on and around the greens - that could be the difference

B.DeChambeau SG:SHORT GAME at #themasters
RD1 = +2.1
RD2 = +4.7
RD3 = +3.8
RD4 (thru 6) = -1.1

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Crazy start to the final round at #themasters

@McIlroyRory WIN PROBABILITY
Pre-round = 73.2%
After Hole 1 = 50.1% (🔽-23.1%)
After Hole 2 = 41.9% (🔽-8.2%)
After Hole 3 = 64.5% (🔼+22.6%)
After Hole 4 = 83.2% (🔼+18.7%)

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

It's clear to see why @JustinRose99 is leading #themasters - more than 70% of his strokes have been gained on the greens!

*SG:Putting Leaders*
J.Rose 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 +7.2
V.Hovland 🇳🇴 +4.0
M.Homa 🇺🇸 +4.0

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

When #TheOpenChampionship was last at Royal Troon, the world's best approach players rose to the top of the leaderboard (e.g. Stenson, Stricker, Garcia, Hatton, DJ)

Current Top 5 Approach Players Worldwide...
1. Scheffler
2. Schauffele
3. Conners
4. Finau
5. Hoge

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Another week, another Major Championship and another win for Scottie? Only time will tell but the data suggests he has a 1 in 5 chance

#USOpen

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

@guccidueces6 He's down in 20th with a 1% chance. He's not been playing great recently (despite his win in Singapore) - on average he has gained less than 1 stroke per round against the PGA Tour average golfer since the start of the calendar year

[Luke Carter @LukeCarterGolf1]

Horses for courses - or - Scottie dominance?

Despite Rory's win 10 years ago at Valhalla, our course fit rating indicates that Valhalla just plays even more into Scottie's hands this week #PGAChamp

Scottie (22.7%)
vs.
Rory + Schaufelle + Rahm + Cantlay + Smith (23.3%)